Step 5 ITM sanity check

[adanthar]

4 handed ITM, Party Step 5 2 table. I just got crippled 2 hands ago on a random SB < BB all in hand and now have 540 chips after posting the 600 BB.

8000 chip UTG folds and the action is on the 2050 chip button. He was the far and away chip leader on the bubble but has folded his way down since then. He now minraises to 1200, over half his stack. The LAGgy SB with 8000, who has stolen his way in from a short stack and mercilessly abused the bubble to get where he is, calls him for a 3000 chip pot and the action is on me.

I have 43o, the aforementioned 540 chips and fold.

[microbet]

Well, obviously I don't know from Step 5's, except I think they pay 4 places and I assume 3rd pays better than 4th.

Seems to me like folding is your best shot at seeing 3rd place money.

[adanthar]

Payouts:

1)9,000
2)5,000
3)3,600
4)2,400

[lastchance]

What's the payout? And I think this is a very, very good fold, that I wouldn't have made.

Hmm... with the payout, I really don't know. Tripling up gives you a very nice t4000 stack. But I think you get a 70% chance of finishing third if you fold.

[The Yugoslavian]

I'd imagine this is a clear fold.

BUT I didn't run any #s, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

I also have yet to play the STEPs, /images/graemlins/wink.gif /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

Yeah I'd fold this.

[The Yugoslavian]

In fact, I think folding here will net you ~$475 vs. calling...

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Yugoslav
Who wants the math?! I'm sure it could be wrong, /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Payouts:

1)9,000
2)5,000
3)3,600
4)2,400

[/ QUOTE ]

in a 50+5, I wouldnt call w/43o if i was in 3rd place w/big stack fighting #2 stack. $50 is $50.

in a step5 where there's a $1200 difference, i would fold even faster. even if #2 stack folded and big stack was bluffing w/27o, he's still the favorite vs 43o.

[curtains]

Actually I think it'd be more appropriate to fold in a normal payout sit and go, however I would fold here anyway.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

Who wants the math?! I'm sure it could be wrong, /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, so I'm gonna post my math now...I realized I may have overestimated Adanthar's final equity initially....if he can provide hand ranges I'll be happy to use those for a more complete picture but it won't change the outcome b/c it's not close.

You can either call or fold so we gotta calc the EV of both.

Folding is easier...we'll do that one first:

I assume SB will win 50% of the time and button will win 50% of the time.

EV when SB wins: 19.2%
EV when button wins: 14.1%
Folding EV: .192x.5+.141x.5 = .1665

Calling:

I assume Adanthar will win 22% of the time. And SB vs. Button are a coin flip:

If you win and SB wins equity is: 24.3%
If you win and Button wins equity is: 22.5%
Calling and winning equity: .243x.5+.225x.5 = .234

Calling and losing equity: .12

Total calling equity: .22x.234+.78x.12 = .14508

Folding: 16.65% of prize pool: 3330
Calling Equity: 14.5% of prize pool: 2900

You 'made' ~$430 by folding Adanthar, way to fold like a champ!

Okay, now someone tell me I'm a Moran...

Yugoslav

[Gramps]

Button will have 850 if he loses the hand. The BB is 600. If he loses the hand, he will be forced all-in first (BB 600, SB 300). The mini-raise by this seemingly inexperienced (overly passive on bubble) player, seems to say "I'm willing to play BB for all his chips but I'm scared of losing and getting knocked out in 4th here, so I'll leave myself some room to get away if SB gets involves." A % of the time it may be a "monster raise," but his overly passive play on the bubble suggests there's a high likelihood that it's a "play not to lose" type of raise.

The Laggy SB (who has stolen his way to 8k) will almost surely lead out putting button all-in to see a showdwon (an 850 chip bet to try and steal a 3000 chip pot - pretty darned good odds). He may have called with total crap just to take a shot at this play on the flop. The button's probably going to fold if he missed. So...SB has a great shot to win this hand. The button may fold some decent holdings on the flop.

You have 43o. You have to beat two other players with it (button shouldn't be as scared of calling a SB flop push with you already all-in having to beat both players to survive). That's a long, long shot. If you fold, there's a very real chance the button will be forced all-in first. That's your best shot at 3rd.

[The Yugoslavian]

Bah, I misread the OP.....the Button didn't go allin and the SB just called....well...I still think folding is right. But not by nearly as much as I previously thought.

Man I suck /images/graemlins/crazy.gif.

Yugoslav

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, now someone tell me I'm a Moran...

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

It's moron, moron. : /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay, now someone tell me I'm a Moran...

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

It's moron, moron. : /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Young Yugo is obscurely referencing:
http://tresgeek.net/images/aitrus/moran.jpg

[Seadood228]

Very nice fold, for the above reasons.

So how long did you have to think before folding? Admittedly, this would not have been as clear for me in the heat of battle.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Very nice fold, for the above reasons.

So how long did you have to think before folding? Admittedly, this would not have been as clear for me in the heat of battle.

[/ QUOTE ]

A few seconds. I basically thought it through and arrived at the same conclusion Gramps did - the button would have to post first and I've got the worst possible hand in this situation, so I had to fold. I wasn't sure about the math, though.

Results: The flop came T95, the big stack set the shortie all in as predicted, the shortie called with QJ and big stack turned over A6s, which held up. I'd have taken it down with a rivered 4 but since Party shuffles the deck before every card it wouldn't have happened that way if I'd called /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I really played a lot of scared poker in this one but what the hell, I'll take $3600.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

I really played a lot of scared poker in this one but what the hell, I'll take $3600.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I don't think this fold was scared poker....it was smart poker.

I know my math was sorta irrelevant, but from looking at the various equity outcomes you really gain more from folding in your situation.

Yugoslav