Late tourney problem/situation hand

[apd138]

This often happens to me, I end up with 5x the bb utg and will be left short after the blinds. Lets assume that the table is neither extremely tight nor extremely loose, I play $22 tourneys. Also would your opinion change if you were holding k10os or j10s. Thanks

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t520)
MP (t550)
CO (t2050)
Button (t1705)
SB (t2485)
BB (t690)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t200) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t100</font>, BB folds.

Final Pot: t300

[apd138]

Any input would be appreciated this might be simpler than I am making it but I am very uncomfortable in this situation.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t2601)
Hero (t590)
MP (t1667)
CO (t1418)
Button (t439)
SB (t1285)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero calls [t590] , <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t150

[lastchance]

I reluctantly push both. 5x BB is 5x BB, and an ace is an ace. I know I push KTo, and I probably push JTs too.

[microbet]

This may be a good test for whether I'm losing my way or not.

I didn't used to do it, but lately I push here with a huge range and possibly with any two unless SB has shown a propensity to call.

It seems like after these blinds pass you have very little fold equity.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
an ace is an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is monkey-talk.

Yugoslav

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
This may be a good test for whether I'm losing my way or not.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are...

[ QUOTE ]

I didn't used to do it, but lately I push here with a huge range and possibly with any two unless SB has shown a propensity to call.


[/ QUOTE ]

What's SB have to do with things?! There are 5 players you need to worry about here, not one.

[ QUOTE ]

It seems like after these blinds pass you have very little fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you have almost none here to begin with. I'd argue you can find a better spot for FE later even if you end up paying both blinds. How often are you winning the blinds?!? You're gettin' called a ton and generally by better hands...and unfortunately with so many let to act u'll have a 3-way pot which would be disasterous.

Folding is the only profitable play in both of these situations, IMO. I don't think it's close and/or arguable (unless Degen carbon copies are playing all 5 seats behind you....and even then it's very close).

Yugoslav
There is exactly one poster who can change my mind about either of these two HHs.

[lastchance]

5x BB is the key. I would fold with more, but getting down to 3.5x BB or 4.5xBB is pretty bad.

Hand 1 is the easier push, because 70 chips really mean all that much, but I still push hand 2.

Then again, I'm a maniac past l4.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]

I didn't used to do it, but lately I push here with a huge range and possibly with any two unless SB has shown a propensity to call.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
What's SB have to do with things?! There are 5 players you need to worry about here, not one.

[/ QUOTE ]

SB is the most likely player to call you. He is the biggest stack and he is in the small blind.

[ QUOTE ]

It seems like after these blinds pass you have very little fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd argue you can find a better spot for FE later even if you end up paying both blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

With 3 hundred and whatever chips?

[ QUOTE ]
How often are you winning the blinds?!?

[/ QUOTE ]

buh, 40%

[ QUOTE ]
and unfortunately with so many let to act u'll have a 3-way pot which would be disasterous.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be bad. But, hey, you probably aren't ITM this tourney regardless of how you play. At this point you can pick a disasterous push, take a disasterous chance at getting dealt a good hand later, or make a disasterous call with enough fewer chips that doubling up doesn't get you much past where you are now.

[ QUOTE ]
There is exactly one poster who can change my mind about either of these two HHs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any poster on this board could potentially change my mind.


Edit: I'm talking about the first hand. No comment at this point about the second, except that I don't like big stack being BB.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

buh, 40%


[/ QUOTE ]

That seems quite high to me, I'd guess 30%. It seems to me everyone has a decent reason to call you in the first hand. SB especially as you observed, but the rest do too if they see any 'sexily sooted' hand containing an over.

Bah, to make this push profitable you'd have to put them *all* on what I'd say is a pretty darn tight range.

If level 5 is gonna smack your blinds then I like pushing.

You're probably right about the FE, I'm not sure you'll get much more later.

Honestly, what worries me the most here is that those big stacks are liable to call you in two places if they like their cards. It won't happy alot, but I think enough to cut out any marginal +$EV you could get if having the table on a very tight range of hands...

Yugoslav

[kyro]

i push them all.

[apd138]

I am still confused as there seems to be no clear concensus, but thanks for the input guys. Maybe this is a situation where either is right or wrong depending on the specifics. I don't know if its just me but I am shocked by how many times I run into this situation.

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
You're probably right about the FE, I'm not sure you'll get much more later.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're going to sit tight on the assumption a bigger hand is coming, are you really that concerned with FE?

[Phil Van Sexton]

With both of these hands, there is no good answer, but there is a right answer. You are a short stack and you are going to need to get lucky to make the money. It's that simple. You can't sit there and think "I hope the big stack doesn't call me because I might lose."

Your stack sucks, so you are probably going to lose either way. If you lose, it's not going to be because of your decision on this hand.

As you Yugo says: you are "gettin' called a ton", and this is true. However, other than pairs and Ax, you're the favorite over every other hand. If the big stacks want to call with "a ton" of hands, that means they're going to be calling a lot when your Ax is the favorite.

Just like I've been saying that calling isn't always bad, getting called isn't always bad either.

Let's say you get called by KJ:
A3o vs KJ (http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&amp;b=&amp;d=&amp;h=Ks+Jh%0D%0AAd+3h) = 57%

With that stack, getting call by KJ is fantastic. You want the big stack to call you.

Basically, if the big stacks decide to expand their calling range for you, that's a GOOD thing. Your A3 will be a favorite over most of the hands they are adding.

If everyone folds, you do win the blinds with no risk. However, that's only 150 and that will be gone shortly when you post the blinds yourself. You'll survive a couple more hands, but your situation has not improved.

In order to get into the money, you need to make a bunch of blind steals and not get called (ie get lucky), or you need to double up (ie get lucky). There's no reason to wait to get blinded down. Just push now and hope for the best.

[RobGW]

Hero needs to get extremely lucky to finish ITM. If he waits he may not find a favorable situation. He will lose all FE after the blinds. Pushing A3 into 5 players may not be a postitive EV but it making the best of a bad situation. I would want to get called here. If a PP calls then the outs to the A are still good. If someone calls with KQ KJ etc. or suited connectors then thats good too. There is only one way for hero to get back into this. He needs to double up quickly. Therefore he needs to gamble it up. Survey says... PUSH.