Moving against the blind

[PokerSponge]

David wrote:
First, let's take the case of the opponent who needs a pair of sevens or ace-king or ace-queen to call. That's 80 combinations (six each of the pairs and sixteen each of the non-pairs). You will then be called 80 out of 1,225 times. (1,225 = (50x49)/2).

When you are called you will win about 23 of the 80 times. See why? Thus if you move in $X 1,225 times you will win $100 1,145 times, win $X 23 times, and lose $X 57 times

I don't see why you win 23 of the 80 times. Could someone help me please. I have tried many different calculations but don't see how he arrives at 23.

[MarkGritter]

(Some context would be good--- He's talking about the February article, considering the EV of going all-in with 66.)

Hm... the equity PokerStove gives you in this case is 33%, or 26 out of 80:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Hand 1: 33.0854 % [ 00.33 00.00 ] { 66 }
Hand 2: 66.9146 % [ 00.67 00.00 ] { AA-77, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
</pre><hr />

I would estimate it like this: There are 32 non-pairs. You are a 55-45 favorite on those. You are a 20-80 dog (actually a bit worse) against the remaining 48 overpair possibilities. 0.55 * 32 + 0.20 * 48 = 27.2. (A bit too high, as expected.)

I don't get it, either.

[PokerSponge]

Thanks.