how's was this semi-steal play?

[dark_horse]

can you follow my thinking throughout the hand? the table was generally playing tight/cautious at this early stage of the SNG.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em SNG Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t1450)
Hero (t1830)
MP1 (t1465)
MP2 (t1365)
CO (t1685)
Button (t2800)
SB (t1495)
BB (t1410)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t90</font>, Hero calls t90, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls t90, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (t315) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t90</font>, Hero calls t90, Button calls t90.

Turn: (t585) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t400</font>, Button folds, UTG folds.

Final Pot: t985

i probably did have the best hand, although i could see the button folding a weak jack if he were a good player. i would normally raise this flop, feeling UTG has overcards, but with the paired flop i wanted to scare him (and the button) by smooth calling. i was fairly confident a strong, but not pot-sized, bet on the turn would end it right there. if i raised the flop UTG might feel compelled to call a bet on the turn out of frustration/odds, which would obviously threaten my stack more.

[deathpotato]

Looks fine to me, although I'd be a little worried about button. What's your river plan if button smoothcalls? How about UTG?

[dark_horse]

if the button smooth calls and UTG fold, i definitely slow down on the river, deciding how to handle the bet if/when it comes depending on its size. is that wrong? would you bet the river again? i couldn't.

if anyone raises me on the turn, i probably fold. if both of them call, same plan as if button smooth calls, but might be more inclined to call a river bet from the button suspecting a steal. although if both of them called my turn bet, that is also a bit of evidence that someone actually has something. /images/graemlins/smile.gif if UTG bets and button is still behind me on the river, i fold fast.

[sofere]

Play on all streets are pretty bad IMO. A standard raise from UTG at $11+ buyins signifies a lot of strength. You're calling with just as horrible position with a horrible hand. You have 7 people ahead of you who can reraise.

Okay, you called...now you're in middle position with 55, against an UTG raiser, and a caller with position on you.

The flop didn't help you, but probably didn't help your opponents (but with preflop action theres still a very good chance your behind.) UTG puts in a weak bet, either slowplaying, or just a weak bluff but you have no idea.

What does calling accomplish? You learned nothing of UTGs hand and you have someone to act behind you who could easily raise and force you out of the hand, thereby wasitng your 90 chips. If you want to find out where you stand, reraise to about 200. If anyone calls, you know your beaten and your out.

You call, button calls...CRAP! Now you still don't know what anyone has. Either could be slowplaying a monster. UTG checks...you still have no idea what anyone has...UTG may have missed, but what can you put button on? Lets find out...lets risk 25% of my remaining stack in level 2 and find out?

Anyways...I'm babbling...short answer...FOLD PREFLOP!

[dark_horse]

I flat called on the flop to make it look like a slowplay, and on the turn wanting to get paid on my big hand. If I get raised I fold. I've raised on the flop in situations like these before and it seems to lead to more trouble because it swells the pot if my raise gets called. Then what do I do?

[lastchance]

You fold flop. Easy answer. There's a lot of people behind you, your hand really doesn't rate to be good, and you've got all sorts of reverse implied odds going against you. Or you can call and check turn. The pot's not too big, and betting the turn only lets worse hands fold, and better hands steal an extra t400.

[nWirb]

I'd fold this preflop every time.

[dark_horse]

What does "reverse implied odds" mean?

[dark_horse]

forget it; i found a really good answer here:
http://www.cs.ualberta.ca/~jonathan/Grad/papp/node22.html

[lehighguy]

Low pocket pair equation.

Chance of hitting set 10% (actually higher but we will take ten for easier math and chance someone else will hit flush or something).

So if someone bets 90, you should expect to win 900 in the event you hit a set. Basically your telling me if you hit a set you can get him to go all in every time. That's just to break even, and it assumes to re-raise behind you.

The kind of bets you can call with low PP in a 1000 chip tourney are 15 or 30. You can probably win 150 or 300 if you hit a set. And if it gets reraised your not out alot.

Use the 10xcall rule when deciding to play low PP early in tourney.