The answer should be obvious, but lets just make sure

[Schneids]

You play a hand where you open in LP with AQ. A sb calls with AJ.

Flop is low cards he checkraises you you 3 bet he calls.

He check calls a jack turn and again check calls a blank river to win the pot.


A rotation or two later you have a situation where you are in LP and he's in his BB (from past experiencing extending beyond these last 20 minutes at the table). You know he's a loose defender of his BB. The SB is tight. Do you try to steal with A3o?

[bicyclekick]

from the co no, from the button yes

[arkady]

if the button is tight too, why not? althought i am not sure how many are at table.

[RaymondKHessel]

If you limp the SB might come along. If you raise, you most likely get it HU against a weaker hand, with position.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
if the button is tight too, why not? althought i am not sure how many are at table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lets say the button is tight and will need to wake up with a premium hand to 3 bet you.

[arkady]

that being the case, i do it, the villain you describe is passive on turn/river. you can capitalize on that.

[fnord_too]

I don't.

I would rather have something like JQ than A3o here, because I am guessing I am not going to showdown against a hand an unimproved A3 beats (so JQ is just as good those times that villain will fold the flop or turn). If an ace comes, I will probably only get action from a better hand. If I hit my 3, same thing. With JQ at least you have two cards to hit and have the chance of getting action when your hand is good.

A3o just seems like a chip spewing hand here.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't.

I would rather have something like JQ than A3o here, because I am guessing I am not going to showdown against a hand an unimproved A3 beats (so JQ is just as good those times that villain will fold the flop or turn). If an ace comes, I will probably only get action from a better hand. If I hit my 3, same thing. With JQ at least you have two cards to hit and have the chance of getting action when your hand is good.

A3o just seems like a chip spewing hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realy like this logic here. I must meditate over this

[Schneids]

I agree I'd rather have QJ here but the question is about A3 though I take it from your post you think A3 is a fold.

[Michael Davis]

Even with a tightwad button I think throwing him in the mix makes this too much for a CO blind steal. A loose BB isn't that big of a deal. It's not like you're making billions on this play, but you're usually going to the flop with position and the best hand. Sure I'd rather have him fold but we're just winning less when he doesn't. Why did we bet the river in the AQ hand?

-Michael

[fnord_too]

Yes, I muck it.

[joseki]

I'd quickly check his WTSD% and think about whether he'd been calling down with K/Q-high in steal situations. I'd also like to know if he was in the habit of stone-cold bluffing HU (in addition to the semi-bluff type move he tried on us).

If he's super-loose and straightforward post-flop, I'd probably raise. If he's tight and at all tricky, I'd think better of it.

Also, we limped w/ a premium hand before, so if button and sb are especially tight, I may think about limping again...

[Trix]

From the buttton, but not from CO.
It´s close enough that getting 3bet by button just 10% will make it negative.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did we bet the river in the AQ hand?


[/ QUOTE ]

Good question.

[fyodor]

He just calls a steal raise in the SB with AJ instead of 3 betting. He checkraises with overcards and then goes in to call down mode when he actually makes his hand.

I don't mind playing against this guy. I raise my A3 for sure.

[Nikla]

Fold.

[TazQ]

Depends on how high a level the BB thinks. If he'll adjust from the previous hand, knowing he can't steal pots from you, I like a raise.

If he is just going to continue to play the way he does, I fold.

[TStoneMBD]

i dont like A2-A4o on the CO. these hands are pretty terrible imo. give me K8o and well talk.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did we bet the river in the AQ hand?

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

I am soooo glad that a better player than myself asked that question . . . don't feel so stupid now.

[Michael Davis]

"I am soooo glad that a better player than myself asked that question . . . don't feel so stupid now."

Ya, I'm awesome, I have a winrate under one for the last 25K hands. I rule.

-Michael

[maxpowers21]

[ QUOTE ]
from the co no, from the button yes

[/ QUOTE ]

I would assume nothing other then weak tightness. But, do weak tighties of this nature check fold unimproved, or check call unimproved, must know more about this opponet. But,ovbiusoly we must assume passiveness, because a terribl passiv weak tight bitch that hand.

I would raise with the majoity of any two cards there against such an opponet from the BB, assuming the Sb is not a tough opponet

yes of course i raise A3o on the button folded around, and raise A3o on the cutoff if the button is weak tight, otherwise i fold.

[maxpowers21]

Ps, now i read comments on threads, this is good discussion. Let's continue.

[fyodor]

I'm making the assumption because of the forum that this is 6 handed. Therefore when you were in LP and he was SB this means you were CO and now that he is BB you are button. SB is tight so he folds all but good hands and is therefore not much of a factor. BB is loose defender so he can be expected to call most of the time.

If Nikla says fold I would like to know the reason. The title of the post says it's obvious but I don't get it.

Any Ace is probably a slight favourite agains most of his hands and we know we will not run into much aggression, plus we have position. What am I missing?

[MAxx]

I would raise this against most players from Button, even if BB was loose in his pf defense. If both SB and BB are loose in their PF defense, then I don't raise... but probably limp.

The pf raise would be good to get SB out of the way since he is tight. However, I don't raise against this player with A3o b/c of his post flop aggression/ play. You will have a tuff time playing this hand against him and will not like showing it down unimproved on a lot of boards. He will test your hand and/or make you pay by getting value from his hands that hit. I would wait for a better hand to steal with against this BB.

Edit: I would also like to point out that villain decided to not 3bet you with AJ out of the BB... but instead elected to c/r a flop that would appear to not help you... while thinking he likely had the best hand anyway. A solid but more straightforward opponent would have 3bet you without blinking preflop... and would be correct to do so on the avg.

Under that thinking (and throwing bravado out the window for a second) from a money making perspective... I don't think you want to steal w/ A3 on this BB.

Now this is just one hand, and perhaps I am reading too much into it.... but one hand is all I have to go on thus far.

[fnord_too]

And Schneids obvious answer is.....

[naphand]

I would like to know Nikla's reason as well.

Just to throw some math into the equation...

A2o-A4o are marginal mathematical favourites to win against 2 opponents. I classify them as marginal as the difference is small enough to be neutralised (or nearly so) by the rake making them close to neutral EV-wise. Against a tricky opponent or one you do not feel you have a significant advantage over post-flop, skipping these hands makes sense.

However, both A4o and A3o improve to >5% net (in terms of % over "fair-share" of wins) heads-up, so with a tight SB who is very likely to fold you not only get dead money in the pot, but have significantly improved your mathematical position. A3o improves from p=0.359 3-handed to p=0.556 heads-up. A 5.6% mathematical advantage (from 2.9%) is quite significant, you have position and there is dead money in the pot (if called or 3-bet by SB then situation is very different).

From the math perspective, you are not only the favourite to win against 2 opponents, but improve significantly when you raise and kick SB. Not raising here is a mistake from this perspective, you have the advantage and position.

[rory]

Fold from the CO, raise from the button.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
I would like to know Nikla's reason as well.

Just to throw some math into the equation...

A2o-A4o are marginal mathematical favourites to win against 2 opponents. I classify them as marginal as the difference is small enough to be neutralised (or nearly so) by the rake making them close to neutral EV-wise. Against a tricky opponent or one you do not feel you have a significant advantage over post-flop, skipping these hands makes sense.

However, both A4o and A3o improve to >5% net (in terms of % over "fair-share" of wins) heads-up, so with a tight SB who is very likely to fold you not only get dead money in the pot, but have significantly improved your mathematical position. A3o improves from p=0.359 3-handed to p=0.556 heads-up. A 5.6% mathematical advantage (from 2.9%) is quite significant, you have position and there is dead money in the pot (if called or 3-bet by SB then situation is very different).

From the math perspective, you are not only the favourite to win against 2 opponents, but improve significantly when you raise and kick SB. Not raising here is a mistake from this perspective, you have the advantage and position.

[/ QUOTE ]

My problem with this is it is looking at things run hot and cold. In practice, I think if you get to a showdown you are beat except the times you hit 2p, a straight, or trip 3's. Maybe you river your ace or maybe you catch someone with a draw, but by an large you are only going to get action when behind.

Now, a lot of times you will win the pot uncontested (because a lot of times you will be ahead on the flop), but you are going to win those hands with any two (disregarding the negligible bunching effect). So if it is right to try to steal with this hand, it is right to steal with any two by my reasoning. I don't believe in raising any two in the CO here, so I cannot really advocate raising A3o.

On the button I mix it up with A3o, depending on how much pre flop folding equity I think I have. In the cutoff it is no good I think.

[naphand]

[ QUOTE ]
So if it is right to try to steal with this hand, it is right to steal with any two by my reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point is it is not a steal situation, you are the favourite to win and you have position. This is a value raise.

Nate's post of a while back fits almost exactly with the mathematical expectations, the differences being almost exclusively among hands like 97s, 78s etc. otherwise the steals Nate was making conform with the mathematical expectation.

The mathematical expectation is the place to start, once that is clear we can consider such things as position and how easy hands are to play post-flop, and your point here about getting little action from an Ace flop except when behind. I do not agree with the notion that if you raise with this you can steal with any 2 cards. You can steal with any two cards, but some "steals" are in fact "value raises" and to confuse the two is not correct at all.

If this hand is a mathematical favourite, then a good player should be expected to be profitable with it, no?

The question is not whether this hand is profitable (I agree from CO its not good), but are there situations where is is better not to play it? It is marginal 3-way, but has a distinct advantage HU, esp. with position. Why would betting AQo through devalue this hand? If Hero is worried about getting CR on a raggy flop perhaps he should play A-rag more readily, he can also take a free card on the flop if he wants/needs. Against a better/tricky player, this becomes much more of a HU contest between the two and I cannot think of a situation where I would not want to play A3o with position in a HU contest.

[MAxx]

do you ignore playability of the hand and the agressive/tricky nature of your opponent's characteristics postflop?

Shouldn't playing a hand like A3o with a raise from LP have higher expectation against some player types than other player types when you actually consider the playability of the hand and their folding or lack of folding tendencies?

Intuitively, I think so.

[Nikla]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold from the CO, raise from the button.



[/ QUOTE ]
Schneids wrote LP, in my book that's not button.

[MAxx]

I don't know. I think if someone says LP.... they are intentionally being vague as to not disclose whether it is specifically CO or Button.

[fnord_too]

The essence of my position is that with A3o opponents are not going to make many mistakes of calling when they shouldn't, but you will be more apt to make mistakes of taking the hand too far. I have no problem with raising a hand like 97s here, even though it is not as favored against two random hands. (I just checked my sheets and they are very close, but A3o is still better hot and cold against two random hands.) The thing is that you need to look at the expected pots you will win and lose with each. If you MO is to bet every flop if called pf and checked to, for instance, about every hand you win on the flop with A3o you will be ahead of, and BB will be making a good fold. With 97s, he will be folding a lot of hands he shouldn't. Furthermore, you may get paid off with your 97s when you hit (even just a pair) from ace high or a lesser pair, and you will be able to fold correctly (or punish correctly) quite often if you get played back at.

For these reasons, I don't view this as a value raise, since the only real value is in getting the opponent to fold pf or on the flop (or maybe if you fire again on the turn, but that is not something I would do automatically). I completely see where TStoneMBD is coming from when he sais give him K8o over A3o (of course you could argue K8o is better hot and cold against both one and two opponents, which it is. More importantly though is you will get more bad calls with K8o than with A3o, and won't make as many bad drives or bad calls yourself.)

To belabor my point, EV is not equal to winning chances.

[rwanger]

I would not want to play A3o against the player you described with the AQ vs AJ. Others have called him weak/passive, but it really seemed like he played that hand well. Granted I didn't see other hands, but...

The check raise on the flop is certainly not passive...he's reading you for a steal raise, and letting you bet on the flop...and then punishing you for it...ie. aggressively defending his blind. Then check calling on the turn and river 1) wins the most money for him when you continue betting a worse hand, 2) loses less money when you have the overpair you are representing. If nothing else, I would describe his play as tricky.

But like I said, I haven't seen any other hands.

Raise with A3o against tight predictable players...you'll win on the flop when they don't improve. Tricky players are going to get the better of you, and calling stations are going to make you put in 7 big blinds to find out if your ace is good.

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
If you MO is to bet every flop if called pf and checked to, for instance, about every hand you win on the flop with A3o you will be ahead of, and BB will be making a good fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

not most of the time.

it doesn't matter that u would rather have 97s, I would rather have AA but we are dealt A3o. The issue is whether A3o is profitable, not whether 97s plays better than A3o here.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't view this as a value raise

[/ QUOTE ]

how do you define a value raise?

[rory]

This post doesn't make any sense.

You say you would rather have 97s than A3o, because when your opponent does fold the flop when you auto-bet it when checked to, he will be making a bad fold most of the time if you have 97s, but a good fold if you have A3o.

Against an opponent who will call with a wide range of hands from the BB and will just fold unless he hits the flop, you should raise with any two cards and bet any flop. This is not a reason to favor 97s over A3o. It doesn't matter what your cards are, you are playing against an opponent playing a very bad blind defense strategy. Punish him with whatever. Yes he is making a worse fold when he folds to your 9 high than to your A high, but he is still making a bad fold either way so who cares.

The reason why A3o is better than 97s is because you can see a showdown with A3o against an opponent who will not just fold if he whiffs the flop. Here is a nice option: You raise preflop, the BB calls. You bet the flop which is whatever, the BB calls. You check behind on the turn and he bets into you on the river. With A3o, you can snap off a bluff, you don't have to raise to make him fold if you think he is bluffing. With 97s, good luck playing that river. Or, say the guy likes to bluff raise with his flush draws. Well, you can call him down with A high and expect to win risking the minimum in case your read is wrong. With 97s you have to try to make him fold his hand.

With A3o, even if you are behind on the flop you can be drawing live, so getting a free card with your position is huge. With 97s, you might be drawing dead so getting a free card by checking behind isn't worth anything. A3o is a much better hand than 97s, especially with position. I like both hands in this spot but give me that A every single time and it really should not be up for debate! Best hand in position is better than worst hand in position. How can that not be?

I don't get how the same people who are counseling other people to defend their BB with like 87o are the same people saying fold the button with A3o?? 97s is better than A3o for a button steal-raise? This does not make any sense, guys!

[rory]

A good player should be able to turn a profit with A high in position against two random hands. It doesn't matter how good the blinds are-- we have the probable best hand, the best position and initiative. What more can you ask for in poker? It's +EV, doesn't matter who is in those seats.

[fnord_too]

Well, first I think it is CO I think, not the button.

I aggree, if the BB will fold any flop he misses raising any two is good (if you completely discount the button).

My point is that A3o really does not have much show down value against most BB since if they go to showdown they will be ahead. Consider the case you flop an ace. How often will you get called down by a worse hand? How often will you end up putting in ~1.5-2.5BB and losing? How often will you end up getting >2.5BB in and winning? If you don't flop an ace, I don't like the line of checking the turn and calling the river to snap off a bluff because you still can't beat a lot of bluffs, and it is unlikely you will get paid off if you spike an ace (and your hand is good).

Now look at 97s. Everytime you win the pot by betting the flop with A3o, you also win with 97s. (An ace is still a great card to see on the flop since your pf raise represents an ace. Our opponent probably is not one to check raise an A high flop without an ace. Tough opponents will, but this isn't too tough an opponent by all accounts.) Now say you hit a 9 or 7. There are a lot more hands that will pay you off on a non threatening flop. In fact, a lot of those A rag hands you hate your opponent to have with A3 (since most rags are better than a 3) will give you chips on a board like 2 7 T. If you miss and don't win on the flop, you get a free card (to six outs, not 3) and you can fold with confidence if bet into on the river.

Your opponent is much more likely to make a FToP mistake in the 97s situation than in the A3o, and you are much more likely to make one in the A3o situation than the 97s.

As to defending, there are similar arguments. First, you get MUCH better odds to defend than to steal. Second, if you know an opponent will continue to bet an unimproved high card hand, you can suck off bets when you hit and get away when you miss. A hand like 78 is usually at least going to be live against a late position open raise. A hand like A3o is often going to be dead to a blind defense, and even if it's up against something like 7To, it is only a 57:43 favorite hot and cold, and when it hits it will go to showdown but fold when it misses. (I need to do some math on how often it hits the flop enough to play on, and how the lines play out.)

I am shooting from the hip here, but there is a lot of good analysis that can be done on this scenario. We need to come up with a range of defending hands and work from there. I think we can break down flops into categories like:

Hits CO but not BB
Hits BB (pair+) but not CO
Hits BB (draw) but not CO
Hits BB (Pair+) and CO
Hits BB (draw) and CO

then look at the distribution of lines and the way the hands play out to come up with a good idea of the EV of raising and defending various hands.

And I am still waiting for Schneids to chime in with his obvious answer, since this is looking like maybe quantitative analysis is needed and heuristics are not sufficient (though right now I still muck it).

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]

My point is that A3o really does not have much show down value against most BB since if they go to showdown they will be ahead

[/ QUOTE ]

ok. but the issue is whether its profitable to raise the A3o, not what its showdown value is against a bb with postflop hand worthy of a showdown

[MAxx]

You steal with A3o against this opponent. You bet flop again and again he c/r's you. Flop is J-8-4 rainbow. What is your plan? Are you thinking showdown as cheaply as possible 2.5 BBs down the road with good possibility of drawing to 3 outs? Are you thinking fold to flop c/r? Well that seems very wrong too. If you fold here, why did you enter pot?

[rory]

There isn't a formula. You can't take this hand and say, "What do you do if this guy check-raises you with this specific flop?" It depends on the player, our history, is he steaming? Capable of check-raise bluffing me on a total blank flop like this? Is he afraid of me? What hands does he defend with? Could this flop have hit him? And so on and so on, and then I make the decision. That is why I have been telling everyone to throw away Gametime+ and actually take notes on their opponents, so they can play hands like this well. In the specific hand you posted, yeah you probably fold. But if they guy wants to be a check-raise bluff kind of guy, then he will get punished when we adjust. That's playing poker. He shifts, we adjust, he counter-adjusts, we adjust back. But we have the advantage here, because we have a better hand and we get to see what he does first so, over time, we will win the war, if we can play poker reasonably well.

The formula comes preflop. Probable best hand + best position + steal possibility = raise. There is no refutation to that, there should be no debate, it is ridiculous there is even a debate about it. Postflop, then you have to start playing poker and make some decisions.

[fyodor]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, first I think it is CO I think, not the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I think it's the button and not the CO and I have already said why in an earlier post but I will also add - because Shneids makes a point of describing the SB but doesn't mention the button. But on the other hand he does say LP for both hands even though villian moved from SB to BB. It would be nice if he would come back and clarify.

In any event is now looks like Nikla is betting on the button but folding in the CO so I don't think the player read has a lot to do with it for him. Shneids' relating of the previous hand implies though that the read does have something to do with his decision.

I am almost certain Shneids would be SR here as a default. Is there something about this player that changes his mind?

Villian is not passive (cr with overs) carefull (goes into calldown when 3 bet) but I really don't like his call with AJ in SB instead of 3 betting against a SR. Why give BB good odds to jump in with all kinds of crap? Do good players do that? Certainly not as a default?

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if the button is tight too, why not? althought i am not sure how many are at table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lets say the button is tight and will need to wake up with a premium hand to 3 bet you.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I think it is the CO. As I said in an earlier post, from the button I sometimes open sometimes pass with this hand.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

My point is that A3o really does not have much show down value against most BB since if they go to showdown they will be ahead

[/ QUOTE ]

ok. but the issue is whether its profitable to raise the A3o, not what is its showdown value is against a bb with hand worthy of a showdown

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, and my whole point is that any two will be just as profitable, but I don't think you raise any two here. If you say any two are profitable as long as your steal % is less than some number, so you pick ranges to steal with to get as close to the optimal steal % as possible, I think you are much better replacing A3o with another hand (unless said % is very high), so again it is a muck in my book.

If you are raising so much that you will get paid off by hands like K high, or underpairs when an ace flops due to Shania considerations, then most of my arguments go out the window.

[MAxx]

[ QUOTE ]
There isn't a formula. You can't take this hand and say, "What do you do if this guy check-raises you with this specific flop?" It depends on the player, our history, is he steaming? Capable of check-raise bluffing me on a total blank flop like this? Is he afraid of me? What hands does he defend with? Could this flop have hit him? And so on and so on, and then I make the decision. That is why I have been telling everyone to throw away Gametime+ and actually take notes on their opponents, so they can play hands like this well. In the specific hand you posted, yeah you probably fold. But if they guy wants to be a check-raise bluff kind of guy, then he will get punished when we adjust. That's playing poker. He shifts, we adjust, he counter-adjusts, we adjust back. But we have the advantage here, because we have a better hand and we get to see what he does first so, over time, we will win the war, if we can play poker reasonably well.

The formula comes preflop. Probable best hand + best position + steal possibility = raise. There is no refutation to that, there should be no debate, it is ridiculous there is even a debate about it. Postflop, then you have to start playing poker and make some decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hear what you are saying and agree with most points generally. I gave that flop as an example, b/c I felt I had to put something out there tangible. So I provided a fairly common and innocent looking flop. My point was that guy has shown with the one hand that I have scene that he is thinking, aggressive, and deceptive. Not just playing his hand. Some of what you are suggesting seems to suggest you are discourageing forthought of how you are going to play the hand in certain situtions, which I think is not smart. He has already shown you in the one hand you saw that he will c/r unpaired w/out a draw. You are also saying that if he plays back at you on the flop and you have not caught anything, you will likely fold. Where is the value in that? You have armed yourself with a hand that you are not ready to take any heat with. I pass up on this hand till I have a better line on his play or a better hand.

You may have the better hand here preflop, but if you are not willing to use it on innocent flops... how are you going to realize its value?

[rory]

Just because my opponent is thinking, aggressive and deceptive doesn't mean I don't want to play the probable best hand in position against him. We are thinking, aggressive and deceptive too. And we have a better hand most of the time. And position. Why are we afraid to gamble it up a little with him with the best of it?

I never said I would likely fold if I get played back at with A high. It depends on the opponent and if he plays back a lot, like I said. Getting into a discussion about how to play A high unimproved HU postflop is not really the scope of this thread, because it requires tons of information we do not have. Whether or not playing it at all preflop is easily answerable, because the answer is obviously yes.

[MAxx]

sounds reasonable. we raise 22 here also for same reasons.

[naphand]

I think the points raised about hands such as 97s etc. are extremely valid, indeed good reasons to play these hands for a steal. Even though they are mathemtically losers, the difference is only slight and the advantage you have hitting a flop means you can probably make up the slight disadvantage in hand value PF as you have position and the element of disguise. This is why I think such suited connector type hands should be played.

However, because 97s is a hand that has deception value, does not mean A3o is not worth playing. We are not talking about a marginal hand PF, A3o is 55.6:44.4 favourite to win HU and you have position and dead money in the pot. This is a very favourable position to be in. It is tricky to play post flop against an aggressive re-stealer and that is the crux of Schneids questions here. It is not just about what the value is PF, there is no disputing that, the advantage is significant. I agree with rory when he says we should be able to win with this hand, even if it is tricky to play post-flop. If you are stealing with a lot of non-Ace hands, why does BB automatically fold when an Ace falls on the flop? If you are stealing with the correct frequency (in the region of 40%+ IMO) then he is going to have a hard time putting you on an Ace. Against most players, when the Ace flops they will usually fold, but if opponent has a bit of the Ace flop he probably is not folding.

I know you guys play higher limits than me, but I regularly find myself against players who CR raggy or paired flops HU in exactly these spots. With Ace-high (and some other hands) I will 3-bet if I have seen him making this move before. The majority of the time they fold, if it gets capped I call and fold Turn unimproved, or I may even just fold to the cap depending on the board and my cards. Against an aggressive re-stealer you will still have the best hand a lot of the time with no Ace on the board (close to 66% of the time), giving up too easily with A high in HU spots is clearly -EV.

[MAxx]

1st post i read today, and probably the best one i will read today.