Chasing the low (or backdoor high)

[L0QTiS]

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
CO posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB folds, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero ?

I believe Tenner/Krieger recommend against chasing the low unless there is a good degree of backdoor potential on your hand, but this situation really has me wondering. Under what conditions will chasing be correct? Pot size? # of players in? etc.

In the above hand I chose to call for a few reasons.

MP2 was almost broke ($2.5 left after the bet on the flop).
MP2 is very loose and will play a wide range of hands (PTO VPIP was 66% in 18 hands).

Rainbow flop.

My hand has a 3 way high backdoor draw plus my backdoor low, so I stand to improve on almost any non-pairing card, although I'll still need to draw to something by the river to get any piece of this pot.

CO (who was actually a 2+2'er) and SB were of some concern, but I figured if they called MP2 would lead the turn and go all-in and whoever was left would likely just call, so I would get to see the river cheaply.

I'll continue the hand later, but this really has me wondering. I'm sure this might be a leak in my game if I take this too far.

Of course I do not always chase a hand like this, but I may "take one off" more often than I should. I'm looking back at my decision here and seeing that the conditions appeared to be ideal, but I'm wondering if this is just building a bad habbit.

Thoughts?

[domino]

Being an old lowball player,I too have trouble laying this hand down for one small bet. You could easily catch the "joker" on the turn. That being said I would probably fold this hand here because it seems you will very likely be headsup with your backdoor draws. I am sure I would be reluctant to lay it down but that seems the right decision in this pot. It would be diff if you could expect several other callers in this spot. Just my opinion.

[Cooker]

I think you can safely say that this would be a bad call. I did a rough calculation with some assumptions that help your position (ie I assumed you wouldn't get quartered etc.) and come up with you losing about .29 BB on the average drawing to the low in this particular hand. You are probably doing a good bit worse than this.

[fishsauce]

I'd hit it. At least once.

You are 12:1 on your call, not including the potential CO and SB calls. According to Tenner and Krieger, the low will come for you 26% of the time - so from that perspective, you seem to be at least breaking even if you only quarter.

The thing your hand has going for it is you should be able to make a good decision on the turn. As you have probably already thought about it, suppose the turn card is a low that voids your high draws. IMO this poses the only tough choice you have - do you call a big bet here? My guess is it would depend on how many and what kind of players the callers on the flop were - do you think they are drawing to the low as well?

Yeah, maybe it's a flaw in your game, but it's a flaw in mine too. Especially if the table is loose passive, I would probably always make that call.

[gergery]

the backdoor low is worth about 3 outs. Each backdoor flush/straight is worth about an out so that's 6 outs. Except that the straights might tie and the diamonds might not be best and the low might quarter, so call it 5 outs.

So you need about 8 to 1 odds. Except that those odds are for getting from the flop to the river, not for 1 card. If it's raised behind you, or bet on the turn by anyone, then your odds are wrecked.

You also cannot drive the betting on this hand, as you won't make your hand until the river, so your implied odds are limited.

If you were head to head, MP2 was all-in and his VPIP was 80 then this might be a very slightly EV+ call. Since its not, easy muck.

[Cooker]

I will try to do as best a detailed analysis as I can, but the calculation is pretty involved since all of your draws are back door (and your diamond flush draw is pretty weak). First some assumptions about the play: all players will call, there will be a bet and all will call every round, and you will always improve to a winner for at least your side of the pot and not get quartered. What cards do you need to continue on the turn? My assumptions will leave you enough odds to take a card off for the gutshot on the turn for the whole pot. 9 diamonds (really weak draw), 9 spades, 3 Kings, 3 Queens, 3 sixes, 3 fives, 3 fours, and 3 threes. I am neglecting the non flush draw aces and deuces since then your low will only be a 4 outer to the nuts which I would consider too weak to draw at normally. Now to calculate the EV of the call:
EV = 15.75BB * ( 2* 0.0364 + 0.0091 + 0.077/2 + 0.0181/2) - 0.5 BB - 0.8 BB = 0.74 BB
Quick explanation of terms: the first term is for both backdoor flush draws, the second is for the backdoor broadway, the third is for when you get the low without a four hitting the turn, the fourth is when you get the low when a 4 hits, the -0.5 BB is the cost on the flop, and the -0.8 is the cost (on average since you fold when you don't improve) of the turn.

This looks promising, but I made numerous assumptions that aid your EV and that are somewhat unrealistic. One of the major ones is that the pot will stay unraised and everyone will stay in. If the final pot ends up less 10 BB this analysis will produce a negative EV (ie if the CO and UTG fold you should definitely not have called and if one folds it is very marginal). If there is a raise behind you or on the turn the EV will be negative. If there is a good chance you are quartered the EV will go down. Some of your flush outs pair the board and you will lose to a full house even when you make your flush, so your EV is a lowered. You will sometimes split when you make the broadway, so your EV is lowered. Some of the low "wins" I gave you came with the non nut low, so your EV is lowered. Sometimes you will make your diamond flush and lose to a bigger flush, so your EV is lowered. If you are up against trips, and remove the flush cards that pair the board, the EV goes down to .26 BB. All these considerations suggest that the EV is probably slightly negative in this spot and I would be inclined to fold. Another reason I would be inclined to fold is that only the spade flush or the broadway will allow you to get in any extra bets on the end since your other hands may have you quartered or beaten on the end.

I think the major reason the analysis gives a positive EV is that there is so much dead money being put in by "hopeless" hands in my analysis, but these hands, if they stay, are not likely to be hopeless. I really think this is a pretty clear fold.

[L0QTiS]

Continuing the hand:

Flop: (11 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB folds, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls, CO folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $2.5 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls, UTG folds.

River: (8.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

Results :
MP2 has Kc 4c 9c Js (High: two pair, jacks and nines).
Hero has Td As 4d 2s (High: one pair, sevens).
Outcome: MP2 wins 8.25 BB.

Twodimes run shows how behind I was

On the flop

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=865714
pokenum -o8 as td 4d 2s - kc js 9c 4c -- 7s 9d jh
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 7s 9d Jh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 2s Td 4d 117 117 703 0 224 0 0 0.265
Js Kc 9c 4c 503 703 117 0 0 0 0 0.735

And on the turn even though I got an ideal card

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=865717
pokenum -o8 as td 4d 2s - kc js 9c 4c -- 7s 9d jh 3d
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing 7s 9d 3d Jh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 2s Td 4d 8 8 32 0 20 0 0 0.388
Js Kc 9c 4c 17 32 8 0 0 0 0 0.613

Interestingly enough, EV gets near even if a wheel card flops - but still all this seems to paint a pretty dismal picture for chasing.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
Twodimes run shows how behind I was
On the flop

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=865714
pokenum -o8 as td 4d 2s - kc js 9c 4c -- 7s 9d jh
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 7s 9d Jh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 2s Td 4d 117 117 703 0 224 0 0 0.265
Js Kc 9c 4c 503 703 117 0 0 0 0 0.735

Interestingly enough, EV gets near even if a wheel card flops - but still all this seems to paint a pretty dismal picture for chasing.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's worse than that. Note that twodimes definition of EV is "winning the pot". It is not "winning money", and so is not EV as most use it in these forums.

You actually need to give the scooping #s a premium bump, since a split is not half as good as a scoop.

Note:
I think I undercounted your hand's outs tho, as runner-runner for low straight and twopair (w A) also make your hand good, so that's probably two more outs for ~8 actual outs in reality vs. his hand which is roughly 26% equity which ties to the twodimes #.

-g