Basic situation

[Danenania]

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $4, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $4, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ($400) raises to $20</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG folds, MP1 folds, CO ($333) calls $16.

Flop: ($54) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $150</font>

With no read on the villain should this be a fold? On the one hand his 150 raise might as well be a 300 raise since he commits himself and that seems like too much to call with one pair. On the other there are a lot of donks in this game and that is one draw heavy flop, not to mention the chance for an overplayed K. Thoughts?

[tbach24]

Hardly basic..

Call and see where it goes on the turn. If it's a K, then you gotta fold. If it's anything else, then shove your chips in.

[mason55]

[ QUOTE ]
Hardly basic..

Call and see where it goes on the turn. If it's a K, then you gotta fold. If it's anything else, then shove your chips in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Curious... why not push it in now? Surely you're not afraid of him sucking out on his 2-outer if all he has is a pair of kings?

Not saying i agree with either line, but i'm curious about yours.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
Hardly basic..

Call and see where it goes on the turn. If it's a K, then you gotta fold. If it's anything else, then shove your chips in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure I understand. If your plan is to push on any non-K turn, why not simply push the flop? That way you charge a flush draw the max and put AK/KQ to a decision. At the time it felt like a push or fold situation on the flop. Of course I could easily be wrong but I need some explanation.

Thanks.

[mason55]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hardly basic..

Call and see where it goes on the turn. If it's a K, then you gotta fold. If it's anything else, then shove your chips in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure I understand. If your plan is to push on any non-K turn, why not simply push the flop? That way you charge a flush draw the max and put AK/KQ to a decision. At the time it felt like a push or fold situation on the flop. Of course I could easily be wrong but I need some explanation.

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

same question i asked. I thought I'd been posting in OOT too long and had forgotten everything about poker, glad to see I'm not the only one who questioned TBach's advice (not something I usually do)

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure I understand. If your plan is to push on any non-K turn, why not simply push the flop? That way you charge a flush draw the max and put AK/KQ to a decision. At the time it felt like a push or fold situation on the flop. Of course I could easily be wrong but I need some explanation.

[/ QUOTE ]

why put AK to a decision when he's drawing to a 2-outer? smooth call and let him lead out on the turn. if you push here he may find a fold...

EDIT: or you have to decide if he has a set of 6's or 7's, in which case you fold...

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: or you have to decide if he has a set of 6's or 7's, in which case you fold...

[/ QUOTE ]

Could I decide this based on the flop raise from an unknown? I'm new at this.

[mason55]

TOP: Win big pots early. This qualifies as a big pot. I want to win it now.

Edit: I'm still not convinced pushing on the flop OR a non king turn is correct. I'm just playing devils advocate for a second.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
Could I decide this based on the flop raise from an unknown? I'm new at this.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's really hard to detect sets without reads. if you had some PT stats to say that he was a 12/2 i'd say go ahead and fold it...that's all those guys do is sit around and wait for sets.

against an unknown...it's tough, but think of it this way. you've made your hand range pretty clear by raising large into a field of limpers from the big blind. solid players at that level generally only do that with AA/KK/QQ/AK/JJ/Shania. he knows generally what you have and is willing to check-raise you...what could he do that with? AK/KK/AA/66/77...of those, what you're ahead of? only AK and a chop with AA.

i don't know...i'm noodling this out as i'm writing. i think against a complete unknown i'd fold.

this is why i watch a table for a few orbits before joining...collect at least SOME PT data.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
TOP: Win big pots early. This qualifies as a big pot. I want to win it now.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you chase him out of a hand when you have him squarely on a two-outer and he's being the aggressor, then you're leaving a lot of money on the table. you don't just want to win the pot, you want to take his whole stack. you pushing could make him do the correct thing (fold), which costs you sklansky bucks. him calling your push would be a mistake, but him betting is an even bigger mistake...

[mason55]

TOP says some pots are worth winning even if it's incorrect for your opponent to call. Maybe that doesn't apply here, but just something to think about.

[beset7]

[ QUOTE ]
TOP says some pots are worth winning even if it's incorrect for your opponent to call. Maybe that doesn't apply here, but just something to think about.

[/ QUOTE ]

you beat me to it.

[sawseech]

if i had 76, 77 or 66 pf and all that money was killed i'd probably call too

and if i caught hard i'd do exactly what villain did

now flip it and say i have AK (unlikely i know)
would i make that raise? probably not
almost certainly not
how about KQ? HELLLLL NO

sure looks like a fold to me =[

[barongreenback]

Difficult. You have the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif so I think its a fold. Even if you didn't it isn't good. You made your strength clear preflop which makes a pocket pair more likely for villain, which in turn makes a set most likely. AK is the hand that could cause you to play.

What I don't understand if it isn't right to play AA all the way in an situation like this then aren't I restricting myself. I mean, sets, big draws and two pair aren't that common. This is something I'm trying to understand myself.

Of course, if AK is the main reason to play then calling and folding if a K comes makes sense.

[barongreenback]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hardly basic..

Call and see where it goes on the turn. If it's a K, then you gotta fold. If it's anything else, then shove your chips in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure I understand. If your plan is to push on any non-K turn, why not simply push the flop? That way you charge a flush draw the max and put AK/KQ to a decision. At the time it felt like a push or fold situation on the flop. Of course I could easily be wrong but I need some explanation.

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm new to this too but the theory goes like this.
If he has 66,77 or AK then you're winning 50% with 2 outs for whoever is behind. You need to play because of the pot money but if a K comes you're losing to 100%. Pushing won't usually be much worse but if he folds AK it's a disaster. You don't want to put AK to a decision.
Of course the difficult bit is determining what he holds. Unfortunatley my caculator won't tell me....

[gulebjorn]

It seems like this is a weekly topic on this forum: should i give up my overpair when i bet out on the flop and they come over the top?

My answer (and i'm pretty much convinced i'm right): Yes, you should.

I mean, i'm sure everybody read some Hold'em strategy pages. I'm sure everybody read the part where they talk about the fish and how profitable it is that he won't give up his overpair when it's so obvious he's beat. Everybody probably nodds to himself, thinking: "well, not me, i sure can make those hard laydowns, because i'm no fish." But still, everyone seems to hate accepting the idea of being beat on the flop by a "lesser" hand, even when all the signs are there.

Sure, there might be times where they bluff you out of the pot, or simply overplay their top pair. But this isn't Party's 25$ NL. This is 200$ NL. And i think it's fair to say, that against the average opponent on this level, this would be an autofold. It would be different if you had a read on this guy as ultra-agressive, or a total fish, or if you didn't bet enough on the flop.

I know this fold has saved me a lot of money, and lost me a lot when i ignored it, closed my eyes, and pushed that damned call button.

Edit: make that 400$NL

[Kaz The Original]

I prefer a bigger raise ($30) given the preflop money already.

You're only fearing three hands here. 77, 66, 76.

Still, you've got one pair. I don't want to play my stack with a pair, when I let everyone in fairly cheap. I'll believe him and fold.

[Tilt]

[ QUOTE ]
Hardly basic..

Call and see where it goes on the turn. If it's a K, then you gotta fold. If it's anything else, then shove your chips in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its too much to call unless your going to stop and go here. Calling is commitment IMO.

[Tilt]

No one seems to think 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif is a possibility here for the villain?

With no reads that we are dealing with a rock here, I am shoving my chips in. You may be ahead, and you have outs against any of villains holdings...not great ones, but you have more hope against your worst nightmare than he has in your best case:

Ad Ah 905 91.41 85 8.59 0 0.00 0.914
As Kc 85 8.59 905 91.41 0 0.00 0.086

Ad Ah 480 48.48 510 51.52 0 0.00 0.485
9h 8h 510 51.52 480 48.48 0 0.00 0.515

Ad Ah 124 12.53 866 87.47 0 0.00 0.125
7s 7c 866 87.47 124 12.53 0 0.00 0.875

Given the pot already you would have to be like 60% sure he had a set to fold here. And I'm not that convinced...generally I think you are up against something else at least half the time. Anyone disagree?

[barongreenback]

[ QUOTE ]
No one seems to think 8 9 is a possibility here for the villain?


[/ QUOTE ]
This is quite possible but its only one hand and its 50/50 to SD so folding vs this isn't tragic.
JT/images/graemlins/heart.gif,QJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif or 76/images/graemlins/heart.gif on the other hand would be much more in hero's favour esp. with the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif in his hand but are a lot of people making this move with these hands?

[tbach24]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hardly basic..

Call and see where it goes on the turn. If it's a K, then you gotta fold. If it's anything else, then shove your chips in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure I understand. If your plan is to push on any non-K turn, why not simply push the flop? That way you charge a flush draw the max and put AK/KQ to a decision. At the time it felt like a push or fold situation on the flop. Of course I could easily be wrong but I need some explanation.

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't want to let AK or QK fold. That's why I wait for the turn. AK has 2 outs and QK has 5, but they both might fold to a push.

[Tilt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No one seems to think 8 9 is a possibility here for the villain?


[/ QUOTE ]
This is quite possible but its only one hand and its 50/50 to SD so folding vs this isn't tragic.
JT/images/graemlins/heart.gif,QJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif or 76/images/graemlins/heart.gif on the other hand would be much more in hero's favour esp. with the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif in his hand but are a lot of people making this move with these hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is tragic to fold against 7h8h here. Lost EV IMO.

[Jeff W]

I was going to answer this one in e-mail, but I'll answer it here instead.

On the flop, you must make a commitment decision. Your effective odds are $427($313+$54+$40):$273($313-$40).

I think these odds are far from adequate to call an all-in with one pair. Your opponent's most likely hands are 77, 66 and 76s in that order. Check-raises--especially large check-raises--in the 2-4 almost always mean strength. It is easy to think that people are making moves on you with flush draws, but usually they aren't. You hold Ah, which makes it even less likely that your opponent is semi-bluffing. You hold 2 of the Aces, so it's unlikely that your opponent has AK, even if he would limp in pre-flop. Combine all these factors and I think you have to fold.

[Danenania]

Results: well, I ended up pushing. Villain called with 66 and the turn brought a heart but the river didn't.

More than being annoyed at my play, I'm annoyed that I did it without really considering all the factors. I need to learn to slow myself down according to the size of the bets and raises. I pushed here as fast as I would have 3-bet AA on this flop in limit. Just another step towards breaking out of the limit mentality.

Thanks for responses.

[BobboFitos]

I think the above is solid advice,although I dont routinely drop overpairs vs checkraises. (and I dont think one should)

but I'd lean towards what jeff has to say here