QQ in mid of NLH tourney

[Ace_Ren]

Tournament is a $10 + 1 rebuy + 1 add-on maximum tourney.
928 entrants
Down to 295 players. 81 places payout.

The Hand:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t1327)
MP3 (t12870)
CO (t7313)
Button (t4636)
Hero (t9915)
BB (t15805)
UTG (t12890)
UTG+1 (t3598)
MP1 (t11645)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t1200</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t2800</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t11620</font>, Hero calls t7090 (All-In).

The guy was still pretty new to the table, but I felt that he was tight-aggressive. And would almost certainly put him on 88-AA, AKs-ATs, AKo-AQo, KQs/o. Obviously, that's not a great read, but it's something to go by. My initial impression was that he had 99-JJ, but it was a guess more than a read.

We both had approximately equal chips, which is the tourney average. Winning will put me into the top 30.

I see two ways to play this hand. I made the play I did because I felt that I either had better than 50/50 on a coinflip, or I was a big favorite.

The other way is to call the initial raise, then bet hard on the flop (turn the 1600 raise into a 1600 bet on the flop). If it doesn't have an A or a K, then I would call an all-in raise, if it did I would fold to an all-in.

Which way would you think is better? Or am I missing another better way?

[ansky451]

Id probably make a bit more of a raise preflop, and then im committed no matter what his reraise is. I dont like just calling and then having to figure out if a 2 3 k flop hit him. Suppose he has jacks, if you check a flop like that to him, he would most likely bet and you would be put to a decision. I favor getting it all in preflop. If he has AA, KK, so bet it. If he has AK and wins the cointoss, theres not much to do i dont think.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
Id probably make a bit more of a raise preflop, and then im committed no matter what his reraise is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see this advice all the time here.

There cannot be any strategic validity to manipulating your bet size in the interest of LIMITING your options. The only valid strategic plays have value as they pertain to how they effect your opponent(s), not yourself.

If what you say is true, and you see any fold equity whatsoever, and you know that this pot-committing-myself strategy will inevitably lead to all of the chips getting to the middle, you may as well just push.

If, on the other hand, you believe that your hand's relative value is significantly greater than the value of your fold equity, than you'd do best to simply figure out how to commit HIM instead.

Just an observation, possibly totally off-base.

[Roman]

well I think you are missing the fact that you still want hands you dominate to flat call your reraise without implied odds of trying to bust you. I find that I pick up a lot of chips like that, whereas pushing just scares them away and gets you called by every hand that dominates you, and only a couple that dont.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
If, on the other hand, you believe that your hand's relative value is significantly greater than the value of your fold equity, than you'd do best to simply figure out how to commit HIM instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought I covered this in this paragraph.

[Roman]

mea culpa, must have missed it, but that is what you should be doing, trying to make him commit as much as possible with the largest range of hands possible.

[JohnG]

I'd make the same re-raise I'd make with AK or 99 here, and that would generally be allin. But it's on the borderline, so I may just call or raise to 4k instead depending on dynamics. It depends how I think they'll respond with AQ, JJ, TT. But normally allin.

[Malachii]

How would you feel about just flat calling his preflop raise and then letting position work for you after the flop? If it's an ugly flop you will have lost the minimum, and if you catch a good flop you can trap him.

If you're going to raise this preflop, it seems to me that your goal should be to take the pot down without a flop. I don't see what a modest reraise accomplishes... by my calculations there's 4600 in the pot (600 blinds+1200 open+2800 reraise) and it costs him 1600 more to call. He's not going anywhere.

[Ace_Ren]

Thanks for the responses guys.

Results:
Hero has Qs Qh (two pair, kings and queens).
MP1 has As Kc (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: MP1 wins

So I ended up busting out of a tournament before the money, bleh.

This hand really makes me question a lot of the advice that is tossed around out on this forum for MTT play. This hand is less of a question about proper play on just 1 hand, but instead it's a question of proper play within a tournament (where I'm struggling).

In 1-hand, I gladly take the all-in preflop with QQ vs AK. I may play the hand exactly like I did. But in tournament play, is it really worth it to push that 55/45 edge? I'm starting to believe no.

Now, one guy suggested a bigger raise, pot committing myself. And of course, some people suggested just pushing it all-in.

What would that accomplish? I see an all-in reraise as busting out the hands that I really want to be playing against. Sure, I'll occasionally take down the pot with the all-in reraise. However, in general, I'm limiting my opponents to TT-AA and AK. TT/JJ I'm the big favorite, AA/KK I'm the big underdog. Versus AK I'm just barely a favorite. If I'm called, I have a slight advantage on average. Rather than sweetening the pot against opponents with 88-99, AQ-AT, and KQ, I'm busting those hands out. To me, that's not even beneficial in a ring game.

"If he has AK and wins the cointoss, theres not much to do i dont think."

I have a real issue with that statement. Taken in a tournament context, if I re-raise all-in and am called, there's a 50/50 shot at winning. To me, that's a mistake in tournament play. It's taking away decisions that seperate a skilled player from a lucky player. If someone would like to convince me that I'm wrong, I'd love to hear why.


"but that is what you should be doing, trying to make him commit as much as possible with the largest range of hands possible."

"If you're going to raise this preflop, it seems to me that your goal should be to take the pot down without a flop. I don't see what a modest reraise accomplishes"

Two people who seem to know what they are talking about said these two very different things. On one hand, the modest reraise doesn't accomplish anything as far as getting my opponent to fold... which is why I question the play now. On the other hand, the re-raise forces my opponent to commit more money with a range of hands that I beat.

Strategically played, I think the hands work out to these options (remember that I'm playing out of position for the rest of the hand):
assuming my raise is called, not raised all-in
There's about 6000 in the pot on the flop.
1) If the flop comes out with an A or a K, I bet out. Probably about 3k or 4k. If I'm reraised all-in, I fold and live to fight another day with maybe 4k left in chips. Although that's pretty worrisome. Actually, I don't like this strategy looking at it now... giving up a pot of 16k for 4k when an opponent who might call(with say, TT or JJ), would probably just push.

2) If an A or K fell, check. This is giving up a whole lot because anyone with 88-JJ may very well just push after a check here. There's also the possibility that someone with AK will slowplay me here and burn me when I bet the turn.

3) Neither an A or a K fall on the flop. This is where the preflop raise really has the most value. I bet it all-in. If my opponent has 2 overcards like AK, he's probably not going to risk his 7k for a 13k pot. I take 2.8k from him, rather than just 1.2k. However, if he has 88-JJ, he may very well think he's still best, and call while I'm way ahead. Even an AJ or AT, when J and T are high cards on the board, may result in a call and I'm a huge favorite.

Flat calling the 1200 raise
the pot is at approximately 3000.
1) An A or a K falls. I have first action, I bet out, probably 3k. If the opponent has that pair, he most likely goes all-in here. I fold, and still have about 6k to work with. If he doesn't, he probably folds here, even with 88-JJ because it's too likely that I hit my A or K. I either win the pot, or have enough left to have options, even if I need to fold.

2) If neither an A or a K fall, option 1 is to go all-in here. If he calls an all-in of over 8K into a pot of 3K, it would most likely mean that my opponent either hit his trips or he has AA or KK. JJ and TT are still a possibility, but it's much more rare, imho. If my opponent doesn't have one of those hands, I take down the 3k for risking 8k. Overall, I don't like this option.

3) The other option is to bet out the 3k pot size. If he's got 88-JJ, a flat call is very possible, giving me more chips while I'm a huge favorite. He might even stick in with some overcards, but that's doubtful. However, I have a really tough decision if my opponent re-raises all-in, but I think I have to take it, unless I get a really strong read that says otherwise.

-----------------------------------------------------
By my analysis, flat calling the 1200 raise gives me much better options if an A or a K falls. However, it's not as good if one of those cards doesn't fall. At a very rough calculation an A or a K will fall about 49% of the time on the flop, 43% if the opponent does indeed have one in his hand (AQ-AT, KQ), and 37% if he has 1 of each (AK).

Given those numbers, I favor the play I made since that has the most value the largest percent of the time. However, the play I made has the huge negative drawback of giving the opponent a chance to re-raise all-in in a situation where I should almost definitely call. However, this increases variance greatly, something I don't really want in my tournament play (there's enough variance in tournaments already).

Playing it again, I would flat call.

What do you tournament experts think of that analysis? Am I missing something? Do you agree with my conclusion?

[DeeJ]

The difficulty with seeing the flop out of position with QQ is that if a King or Ace flops, you can lose more often against a player with position. Because if you bet 3k it looks like "I've got JJ or QQ and daren't push" whereas if the flop is ragged and you push it looks like "I've got Jacks or better and you haven't". Only KK and AA are better than QQ, I think you were right to push. Would you be posting the hand if you had won?

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
In 1-hand, I gladly take the all-in preflop with QQ vs AK. I may play the hand exactly like I did. But in tournament play, is it really worth it to push that 55/45 edge? I'm starting to believe no.

[/ QUOTE ]

I recommend you do a google groups search of rgp for Paul Phillips. Also the likes of Jerrod Ankenman. They have excellent posts on this subject, Phillips within the past 2 or 3 years.

I also recommend you search the 2+2 archives for Fossilman. He has some excellent posts on this subject. Though some of the older ones may be tough to find due to the scattered nature of the archives.

They will give you all the answers you need.

Also, your edge depends on the odds on your money. Maybe the pot odds mean you only need to win 40% of the time to break even. So winning 55% of the time is very profitable.

[ QUOTE ]
Now, one guy suggested a bigger raise, pot committing myself. And of course, some people suggested just pushing it all-in.

What would that accomplish?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on the dynamics. Maybe you get allin action from some players with JJ, TT or less as they put you on AK for the allin move and decide it's a coinflip. If you don't like being the 55% favourite, maybe others would rather fold AK than call allin as that is in worse shape and getting slim pot odds.

[ QUOTE ]
I see an all-in reraise as busting out the hands that I really want to be playing against. Sure, I'll occasionally take down the pot with the all-in reraise. However, in general, I'm limiting my opponents to TT-AA and AK. TT/JJ I'm the big favorite, AA/KK I'm the big underdog. Versus AK I'm just barely a favorite. If I'm called, I have a slight advantage on average. Rather than sweetening the pot against opponents with 88-99, AQ-AT, and KQ, I'm busting those hands out. To me, that's not even beneficial in a ring game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you were borderline here, given the ratios, so you had options on how to play the QQ.

However, you do seem to be underestimating the value of winning without a fight. If you increase your stack here by almost 20% without a fight the majority of the time, and the other times when called, you are an overall favourite, that's a pretty good situation.

[ QUOTE ]
"If he has AK and wins the cointoss, theres not much to do i dont think."

I have a real issue with that statement. Taken in a tournament context, if I re-raise all-in and am called, there's a 50/50 shot at winning. To me, that's a mistake in tournament play. It's taking away decisions that seperate a skilled player from a lucky player.

[/ QUOTE ]

The shallower the money, the more the skilled players edge comes mainly from preflop decisions.

[ QUOTE ]
"but that is what you should be doing, trying to make him commit as much as possible with the largest range of hands possible."

"If you're going to raise this preflop, it seems to me that your goal should be to take the pot down without a flop. I don't see what a modest reraise accomplishes"

Two people who seem to know what they are talking about said these two very different things.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would agree with the first one, with the added comment that it is no disaster if you do win a significant pot without a flop. In your borderline situation, how your opponents react with JJ/TT is the key to what you do. You want those hands in, usually.

[ QUOTE ]
On one hand, the modest reraise doesn't accomplish anything as far as getting my opponent to fold... which is why I question the play now. On the other hand, the re-raise forces my opponent to commit more money with a range of hands that I beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

The main value of the modest raise out of position on these ratios, is to get hands we bury to committ allin preflop, when an allin raise would otherwise get them out.

[ QUOTE ]
Flat calling the 1200 raise
the pot is at approximately 3000.....

3) The other option is to bet out the 3k pot size. If he's got 88-JJ, a flat call is very possible, giving me more chips while I'm a huge favorite. He might even stick in with some overcards, but that's doubtful. However, I have a really tough decision if my opponent re-raises all-in, but I think I have to take it, unless I get a really strong read that says otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is usually a real easy decision if your opponent raises allin on these ratios and you have an overpair.

[ QUOTE ]
Given those numbers, I favor the play I made since that has the most value the largest percent of the time. However, the play I made has the huge negative drawback of giving the opponent a chance to re-raise all-in in a situation where I should almost definitely call. However, this increases variance greatly, something I don't really want in my tournament play (there's enough variance in tournaments already).

Playing it again, I would flat call.

What do you tournament experts think of that analysis? Am I missing something? Do you agree with my conclusion?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're playing too scared of AK, and underestimating the value of winning without a fight the majority of the time.

I think I would likely fold AK here if you moved in preflop against me. I also likely fold to a smaller raise, but maybe not as small as the one you made. I probably call that, or maybe move-in. And if you just call preflop, I get a free shot at you, and you'll usually be the one making the big mistake post flop. And what if I have a rag hand I would have folded to a preflop raise, that now out flops you, or the board allows me to bluff you out?

Normally it's re-raise or fold in this situation for you. But on the borderline, you have options with hands you bury being the guiding light. I'd say calling is a reasonable option if JJ/TT likely gets away to an allin. Need to give those hand a chance to make a big mistake. But you also have to balance that against possibly giving up a significant pot post flop that you could easily have won preflop with a raise. So it's all in the dynamics. Reduce the ratios just a little, and re-raise is the clear option.