The Angels Walk Barry Bonds. . .

[andyfox]

. . .with a 7-5 lead in the fifth inning with one out and a man on second base, leading to a 4-run inning which would have done them in had the Giants been able to pitch better than I can.

Who's managing them, John McGraw?

BTW, Bill James ran a computer simulation (hope Mason doesn't read this /forums/images/icons/smile.gif) that showed that "there is no such thing as a hitter so good that he should be routinely walked." The basic argument is that is you walk a guy every time he gets a huge number of bases (let's say he comes to the plate 700 times: he gets 700 total bases) while using up zero outs. Even a guy that goes, say, 210 for 550 and walks 150 times, slugging, say, .860 in the 550 at bats, would get "just" 623 bases while using up 340 outs. Phenomenal production (ala Bonds), but not as good as walking him every time.

[Clarkmeister]

I don't think that walking Bonds in that spot is really questionable. Even with a 2 run lead, having an open base, and a man on 2nd with 1 out, most managers are going to walk not only Bonds, but almost any serious hitter, especially if the on deck man is a better matchup. I think that was pretty routine.

Far more questionable was Bakers decision to keep Rodriguez in to start the 8th, then keep him in after giving up a solid hit to Eck. Then keep him in after a tough at bat where he clearly was lucky to get an out. Finally, he lets him face a hitter who hadn't been retired all game, and pays the price. Baker had gone to Worrell all postseason in that spot, and the one time he doesn't, he pays the price. I think his inaction in that spot is baffling, considering how good he had been at pulling his guys when they got in trouble throughout the postseason.

[JTG51]

You don't see managers walk someone to bring the go ahead run to the plate very often. Isn't that one of the famous "unwritten rules" of baseball?

By the way, am I the only one that never saw the ball Bonds hit in the 9th come down? Did it come down?

[Uston]

Typical Fox coverage. They show us Tim Salmon mouthing "That was the furthest ball I've ever seen hit" approximately 11 times, but show us the actual HR about 3 times. And, no, I didn't see it come down either.

[M2d]

I was on the road at the end of the game, so I didn't see the HR. heard the call on the radio, though, and it sounded like a monster, so I called my dad when I got home and asked him how far it went. He said that he lost it in the smog, but that he wasn't sure if it came down at all. This from a confirmed Barry hater.

[M2d]

That Kennedy groundout at the beginning where the ball hit his bat over his head: did FOX ever show a replay of that? I never saw it if they did. I called my wife in from another room to show her the play, but we never saw it.
what's up with that?

I agree most managers will walk Bonds and a lot of other hitters here. I think it's a mistake every time. Most managers don't know what they're doing. A hitter is trying to do three things: get on base, avoid making an out, and do something to advance other runners on base. By walking him you allow him to do two of the three things. If Bonds is a .370 hitter and Santiago a .270 hitter, you're only going to get Santiago out 1 time in 10 more than you're going to get Bonds out. So do you want to face the better hitter with one man on base leading by two, or the lesser hitter with two men on base?

The solid hit to Eck was a flicked blooper to right field. More questionable is pitching low to Salmon, which I have watched three teams try to do now in the post-season. But he's a hot hitter right now, he might have hit anyone.

Helluva game, huh? Other than the game 6 blowout last year, 5 of the last 6 World Series games have been classics: games 4,5 and 7 all went down to 2 out in the bottom of the 9th, and now games 1 and 2 here were one-run nailbiters.

I dislike their coverage immensely. Why do I have to hear a racing car 168 times during the game? Why are the closeups worthy of a Sergio Leone western? Why do I need to know whether Dodger fans prefer the Angels or the Giants to win the series? Why doesn't Tim McCarver retire?

Now there's plenty to badmouth about Anaheim, it's a horrible place, but smog requires sunlight and thus there is no smog at night. I think Bonds' home run ended up in McCovey cove; at least it seemed it went about 400 miles. Why weren't Kent and Aurilia, down two runs, trying to coax a walk out of Percival, who can sometimes come in somewhat wild?

[andyfox]

BTW, the above three anonymy posts were from me, forgot to log in.

Andy

[Phat Mack]

I'll admit I'm new to all these Bonds threads, but has Bonds ever performed well in a World Series? I remember him choking all the way back to his days with the Pirates. I'd pitch to him until he proved he could play in a big game.

[Clarkmeister]

Well, he has hit 6 home runs in 12 playoff games this year, while getting walked at every turn.

[Clarkmeister]

Saw a stat that when Bonds was walked this year, he scored around 5% of the time. Compare that to his numbers over the last 2 years where he is averaging a HR more than once every 9 AB's.

I'd sure walk him.

[JTG51]

Bonds has never performed at all in a World Series before this year. This is his frist time. You are right though, he never did well in the playoffs.

That was back when he was just the best player in baseball. Now that he has become Babe Ruth reincarnated, he's on a tear. He's had about as good a postseason as someone can have.

[M2d]

Andy,
the smog thing was a jab at the So Cal pollution and a testament to my parents' refusal to step into the 90's and buy a bigger tv.

[M2d]

Contractual agreements aside, they should just give the WS job to Vin Scully with no partner, and let him to TV and radio simulcasted (maybe with Joe Morgan doing color if you really need a second). Then, and only then, will we get a quality WS broadcast.

[Homer]

Heh. I did the same thing, and we waited and waited, until finally realizing they would rather show a closeup of Charlie Sheen or Kobe than show the replay of the behind the back hit. They did show it before his next at bat, by the way...

-- Homer

This is his first World Series. He hasn't hit well in post-season before, but as great as he was then, he's a much better hitter now. The man hit 73 home runs and then had a better season the year after. These two seasons rank with Ruth's 1920-1921 as the greatest ever.

He only scored 10 times on his 198 walks? Wow, I sure would have guessed a higher number. The Total Baseball people assign a value of .31 runs per walk in their formulas, although I imagine intentional walks have a lower value.

Okay, rant coming: I sick of hearing "If you're the Anaheim Anegels, then you should think about walking Bonds" and "If you're the manager, you gotta be thinking about the pitchout." I am not the Anaheim Angels; I am not Barry Bonds; I am not the manager of either team. Nor am I a stadium, a left field wall, or home plate. I am none of these. I am, however, John Cole, posting from work, and "If you're John Cole, more's the pity."

John Cole

I remember hearing once that the leadoff hitter who walks is more likely to score than the leadoff hitter who reaches on a single, but I don't remember the percentages. Anybody recall?

John

[Phat Mack]

Yeah, to give him credit, it was the Bucs/Braves NL playoffs that first gave me doubts about Bonds and his Pittsburgh teammate Bonilla. They both went on to repeat their post-season performances for other teams, Bonilla for the Mets, if I remember correctly. The best player in baseball at the time? Well...

Glad he seems to have snapped out of it.

[Clarkmeister]

Bonds was intentionally walked a league record 68 times, and scored after THREE of those walks. 4.4%

For the entire year, he was walked 198 times and scored on 34 of those walks, for a total of 17.2% for the year.

Over the last 2 years, his chances of hitting a HR in an official AB is 13.5%.

http://www.washtimes.com/sports/20021017-80068687.htm

[MCS]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
I remember hearing once that the leadoff hitter who walks is more likely to score than the leadoff hitter who reaches on a single

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Rob Neyer on ESPN.com disproved this, but I'm too lazy to go look it up at the moment.