NFL value and anti-value as we approach the halfway point

[Clarkmeister]

I'd like to see what everyone else thinks as we approach the halfway point. Here are some teams that I think will offer good value in general going forward, as well as some that I think will be a bit overpriced in general going forward.

Good value (in no particular order)

1. Ravens. This is a team that I thought would be lucky to win 5 games at seasons start. But Jamal Lewis has come back 100% and their D has filled holes with tenatious youth. If they continue to get their young QB to keep steady, they will continue to do well.

2. Pittsburgh. After a horrible start, they appear to be back on track. This game tonight will show us where they really are and if they have made the proper adjustments to the way offenses attacked their D early in the year.

3. Chargers. A solid running game, top notch D and error free QB play is a recipie for success. If Bledsoe can continue to avoid mistakes, this team will continue to do well.

4. Detroit. The Lions have really turned things around after the first few weeks. They have faith in their young QB, and look to repear last years trend of being in every single game, with a few more wins than last years debacle.

5. Atlanta. OK, I yeild on them. With typical solid Reeves D, and Duckett starting to come into his own, Vick is in a spot to shine.

Overvalued (also in no particular order)

1. Miami. Banged up and as one dimensional as always, they look to repeat their recent trend of strong start-poor finish. Doesn't help that Wanndstadt is one of the worst in the game, IMO.

2. San Francisco. They have really improved their D, but I still think the lines overvalue this team, especially when playing against good squads.

3. Philly. No running game catches up with you eventually. Look for them to struggle on the road as teams continue to force this team to struggle offensively. I see them in a lot of close ones, which is bad when you figure to be laying points in almost every game from here on out.

4. Cleveland. This team really gets overbet, and with their health problems this isn't the same promising team that started the year out. I don't understand the support this team gets.

5. St Louis. Now that they've won a few, look for them to start laying stupid wood again. For a team that just lost their best defensive player, and has a horrific offensive line, laying points simply is asinine.

[Wildbill]

Can't agree on Steelers, their few and far between wins have come against teams that can't stop the run. Teams will force Maddox to beat them and he has never played consistently well at any time in his career.

Ravens do look good, but I think the value has started getting away from them. I thought I was the only one before the season that was high on them to have a respectable year and I liked Redman and Heap. Heap is impossible to cover, a Tony Gonzalez waiting to happen. The type of player a young QB needs badly. Won't get a bargain with them, but they should continue to win a fair share of games.

Chargers won't get much value anymore either and I don't like betting teams that have little comeback ability (well everyone can come back on the Chiefs!). They definitely will get a boost when Junior returns, but lets see them prove they don't have another late season collapse.

Detroit...fair enough, they look far more competitive now, but not a whole lot of talent there so maybe some value but nothing serious.

Atlanta I do like, they should get better as their defense improves in the new scheme. Vick is something else, but he just better learn to stop taking such big hits if he wants to avoid missing more games to injury.

Miami might struggle late season as they always do, but who knows one of these years they are due to finish at least decently. Maybe Williams is the guy they need to carry them to the end. A very talented team once Fiedler returns, I wouldn't sell them out too quickly because the public knows all too well how they finish seasons.

Niners look like a so so team to me as well. I don't know if they get all that overvalued, they have had the luxury of a fairly easy schedule so far and in that division they might not have to break a sweat to win it. They are a better than average team though so I wouldn't get too crazy going against them.

I don't know what you mean by the lack of a running game in Philly, Staley got over 100 yards against the Bucs. Add to that the abilities of McNabb and I just can't agree with you that they lack the ability to get ground yards. Anyways the idea of the West Coast offense is to use short passes instead of runs and the Eagles do that very well. They do face pretty big prices though, I do agree they aren't a value team, but they are just more talented than just about anyone else out there so when they play good teams they cover, when they play bad teams they fall to their level. In the end I still think they are the best team right now and my choice to win it all.

Cleveland is like the Niners in that they are in a weak division with a team that is more talented than the competition (although I don't think they are an above-average team). They should win this division, but injuries and inconsistency is hurting them. I wouldn't say they are getting that much support, looking over their games I don't see any inflated looking numbers.

Rams will probably be just as you said. Only thing is the slow start might be the best thing to happen to them. Once Warner comes back the lines will be quite high, but if they have found their groove again they just might cover some of those games. Still is a team built for the blowout on both sides of the ball and has far too much talent to take them lightly. I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up over .500, but they might have some non-covers along the way.

If I had to pick a team not mentioned here to be a decent value I would go with the Jets, a well-coached team that has more talent than shown so far this year. They finally put it together for a good effort and I think they might get some momentum going if they win another against Cleveland. A second value would be Dallas. I am concerned because sometimes it is hard to get value with a popular team, but I think the OL will get better and Carter will have better days than he had yesterday. The defense is excellent, one of the better squads in the league and that alone makes for some nice value because people are refusing to bet this team because they are only looking at one player, Carter, and passing or betting against them. If the OL can improve and they can work within a system suited to what Carter can do, this team could be a bit of a surprise.

On the other side of the coin, I think the Panthers are clearly heading down to earth. Lamar Smith always starts to burn out from too much use. That time might be getting closer. Lacking a quality QB that can make a difference hurts too. A nice start, but I can see the downhill slide continuing. Second team for this I would say is Seattle. They just look like a team about to implode as their defense looks shoddy and their offense doesn't look like it can carry the load. Their occasional big game still keeps bettors attracted, but they look to me like they would be lucky to win more than 4 games this year and with the Holmgren system coming into question that could lead to an implosion before you know it.