pocket aces, slow down the turn or protect hand?

[thesharpie]

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (12.40 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, CO calls, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (13.70 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, BB calls.

River: (28.70 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, CO folds, BB calls.

Final Pot: 32.70 BB

No real read on UTG. If I have the best hand on the turn it's vital I raise. Even if I don't I must have plenty of hidden outs so I think the turn raise is ok. Your thoughts?

[DeuceKicker]

What are your hidden outs on the turn?

If anything, I think I'd cap the flop. Your pre- and post-flop cold-callers aren't going anywhere, so raising the turn offers no protection. If UTG flopped big you're drawing to two outs. If he's pumping a flush draw you're drawing to blanks. Capping the flop might help you decide which of these two possibilities is more likely. If you cap and he comes right out betting the turn, I'd be thinking he had two pair or better.

[scotty34]

Cap the flop, and if BB still shows aggression once the turn comes, you are probably up against a set or 2-pair. I would go into calldown mode.

[thesharpie]

If I cap the flop he's likely to try for a check raise, as he check raised the flop, and the worst part about that is everybody is going to call my first bet, then his bet. If he leads the turn and I raise at least I can give gutshot draws improper odds to call, and maybe a low pair will fold.

If he has 2 pair I have up 2 8 outs on the turn, but there are 3 others in the hand so I really need to try to clear some of them up.

[scotty34]

I don't think he would C/R the turn after C/R'ing the flop. He knows you have a good hand, and aren't going anywhere. I would expect that he will come out betting on the turn, or go into calldown mode himself.

[thesharpie]

Noone thinks it's worth it to play it the way I did by losing 1.5BB more? Noone did fold the turn but they could've, and if I just fold a GS draw and a low pair I think it's worth it to win this huge pot. Plus villain isn't guaranteed to 3 bet the turn, so I might only lose .5BB extra.

[DeuceKicker]

[ QUOTE ]
If I cap the flop he's likely to try for a check raise, as he check raised the flop, and the worst part about that is everybody is going to call my first bet, then his bet. If he leads the turn and I raise at least I can give gutshot draws improper odds to call, and maybe a low pair will fold.

If he has 2 pair I have up 2 8 outs on the turn, but there are 3 others in the hand so I really need to try to clear some of them up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd credit you with no more than 6 outs on the turn. If he flopped 2-pr you have 3 outs from the flop, but you have no idea which ones they are, so how good do you feel if a flop card pairs? You really only have two outs to a confident hand that you can jam.

After capping the flop I'd stop worrying about the cold-callers. They're most likely along for the ride and will donate or suckout, whatever chance dictates. On the turn they have odds to draw to a gutshot, anyway.

Either way, I'd basically be in call-down mode on the turn. Capping the flop (and UTG's reaction to it on the turn) gives you a little better idea of his hand strength for half the price, while probably giving you an equal chance of folding out one of the cold-callers (which is very low regardless).

[DeuceKicker]

It's possible I'm prejudiced by the knowledge that they all cold-called the turn. You should probably not have included that action in the hand summary.

But in general I think anyone who cold-calls pre-flop, and once again on the flop, is there till the end. If they were going to fold when faced with another cold-call (edit: the third overall raise they're willing to call cold) I think they'll be as likely to do it on the flop as the turn. When it comes back to them capped they might be thinking that they'll face two cold on the turn and river and fold. But when you slowed down on the flop they don't anticipate more raises.

I also agree with Scotty. UTG probably won't check-raise the turn unless he's just trying to be fancy. Either he has a monster that he wants everyone to stick around for, or he is fearing KK from you and is slowing down himself. Again, capping the flop might help you make this determination.

[milesdyson]

That's a tough hand. UTG's flop call/3-bet and turn bet says he has a pretty damn good hand.

I would think that when UTG does what he does in this hand, raising the turn is almost always resulting in him 3-betting. So, you have to wonder if protecting your hand in a large pot is worth it when you're probably already behind and possibly drawing to 2 outs (which may not be clean if JT is out).

Those are my thoughts... but I can't think of any other viable action to take in this hand. I don't like capping the flop, but the reason I don't like capping the flop is because I want UTG to bet the turn so I can raise. The problem is that after his flop action (call/3-bet), his turn bet means he's got the goods and raising may be suicide.

I know I kind of repeated myself, but hey, that's a tough hand.