AK/Bubble/1st/3rd

[Voltron87]

Disclaimer: This isn't voltron, it's his friend who he's teaching to play SNGs. He stays logged in on this and I don't have an account so I'll just ask here.

Party 11 SNG.

These aren't the exact stacks, but should give all the info needed.

Blinds 150/300

Big Stack: ~3500
Medium Stack: ~2500
Me: 1100
Short Stack: 600

(Me and the short stack are exact numbers)

I am the BB, putting up 300. 800 chips behind. I have A/images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

SS (UTG) folds, Big Stack goes all in. Med Stack folds, I should...

I figure AK is far ahead of what he probably has (he's been pushing a lot, with hands I'm beating with AK). If I double up now I've got around 2500 and I'm right there with the chipleaders. If I fold, I can fold my way into the money, with any luck. But if I did that I'd probably have no shot at getting 1st or 2nd, I'd have 300 chips or so after the SS goes out.

The play here?

voltron (more fun to call him that) tells me that you should usually try to play for 1st if you have a strong hand with a big edge, rather than folding into the money and crippling yourself. I figured I had a big edge with AK, so I went with it and called all in.

[TruFloridaGator]

Easy Call

[teamdonkey]

so many of the hands the big stack is pushing with here you have dominated. I call also.

[Voltron87]

Results: I called, and he showed TT. No help for me. I'm not 100% sure an allin was best, maybe I needed more chips to do so?

[Cry Me A River]

Easy call. The only way I don't call is if my chip stack is healthy enough and the other players bad enough that I still have a good chance of moving up to 2nd/3rd if I fold. ie: If I had T1500-T2000 after posting the blind I'd consider folding, but it'd be really, really tough to lay down even then...

If you think about it, the hands he's stealing with probably break-down along the lines of:

30% - He has an A
30% - He has a K
30% - He has a PP
10% - Some other "junk" hand (ie: 2 broadway)

Obviously this is going to vary slightly depending on the player - At any rate, the only hand you don't want to see is the PP, and even there unless it's AA/KK you're a coinflip (and he's probably not pushing AA/KK, he'll want some action). So calling here you're going to double-up somewhere in the neighbourhood of 65-70% of the time which puts you right in the thick of things. That other 30-35% of the time, oh well...

Plus, you've no guarantee as far as 3rd, if you fold, the shortstack just needs to win a hand and you're in a battle for that spot. If he's got T100 then there's a much better argument for folding...

[Voltron87]

Real Voltron here again. Sounds like it is time to learn the ICM.

[NegativeEV]

Have Voltron show you how to do ICM calculations. They are very easy for this type of situation and very good for your learning process: Link to ICM (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html)

I adjusted the big stacks to get 8000 chips total (inflate each big stack by 150 chips), and ICM tells you:

Equity Fold: .1696
Equity CallWin: .2933
Equity CallLose: 0

Now calculate your win percentage to make a call equal to a fold: .2933 x = .1696. X = 57.8% so you need to have a 58% or better chance to win to make a call profitable according to ICM.

You almost certainly have a better than 58% chance against Big Stack's range of hands here so ICM tells you to call.

If you factor in the increased chance of getting first with a bigger stack and your skill advantage, then you have an even more clear call.

So... learn to use ICM and run MANY calc's then evaluate the ICM results along with factors that ICM does not consider, and you will find this to be an EASY decision.

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
Real Voltron here again. Sounds like it is time to learn the ICM.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used a lot of words to say this in my post below. Goodness.