Who would fold here?

[fiyah]

I don't remember precise details on the hand, but here is the situation:

PokerStars $16 Turbo:
blinds 100/200

Villian: 5100
BB: 2500
SB: 900
Hero: 4800

These are just rough numbers

Anyway Villian limps in, SB completes, hero has AJ, and raises to 700. Villian calls and SB folds, flop comes:

A/J/2 rainbow

Hero checks to Villian, who bets the min, Hero raises to 1200, Villian puts him all in. What would you guys do?

[Bill Poker]

CALL.
Villian would raise preflop with AA/JJ. his likely hands are Ax-AQ, 22-99, and maybe KQ. 22 is the only hand you are behind. I would call all-in.

EDIT: maybe villain limps in with rockets.

[KenProspero]

If Villian holds AA or JJ or 22, you're a huge underdog. If Villian holds AJ, you're probably chopping the pot (though a backdoor flush draw for V is possible with AJs) Anything else, you're a huge favorite.

Would Villian have limped in with either AA or JJ? Maybe, but probably not. Villian might have limped with 22. Even if you can't eliminate the possibliity or a set--

Easy Push.

[Rolen]

Argh! I suppose you got to call this but it looks for all the world like trip 2s

[Jman28]

I call and then cry.

-Jman28

[KenProspero]

Rolen

Maybe trip 2s, I was thiking something like KJ or QJ

[fiyah]

First let me apologize for my stupidity, I just realized I did not spell Villan correctly in every part of my first post! How dumb! I'll give the results later, but a few things I would like to stir up, how abou the possiblity of folding and getting ITM since 900 stack is about to be knocked out soon. That is the real reason I posted this hand, to see if its viable to fold in this situation.

[John Hurst]

Run away from the computer screaming! You have half you stack in the pot and top 2 pair against 1 opponent. This is an easy, easy call. Don't play for 3rd, take down this monster pot and play for 1st.

[Scuba Chuck]

$16 turbo, I think you gotta call. $16 tells you how fishy they are, and it's also how cheap it is to start a new one.

Furthermore, another hand you're not considering here is A2.

[fiyah]

Okay, I'm seeing that I did indeed do the right thing, one thing I do not do is I do not play for third, and it might be a leak of mine. I just hate doing it, I want to take the whole thing down!

So I call, and I got shown 2/2, tough loss. However, this is not why I posted this because that is gonna happen to you, flop top 2 pair and lose to a flopped set. The reason I posted this hand is because this loss made me rethink my strategy on the bubble and caused me to play more timid the rest of the day, folding hands I would normally steal with.

Thanks for the replies everyone!

[Rolen]

I see villian pulling this move with Jx if he's against one of the smaller stacks, but practically all of his chips are at risk here. Maybe AK though i'd expect more action pre-flop

[raptor517]

ding ding ding. i think A2 is the most likely hand. holla

[Rolen]

Actually yes, he'd more likely smooth-call trip 2s.

Looks like A2

[Bill Poker]

in hindcast, vallian should have 22, he would not push with AT. only hands he would push are AA/JJ/22, AK maybe but not likely.

learn something new every day -:)

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
First let me apologize for my stupidity, I just realized I did not spell Villan correctly in every part of my first post!

[/ QUOTE ]

Nor in this post. Not that it matters a lot, but it's 'villain'

As to the original problem, my gut tells me villain has a set. I don't think he would risk going from chip leader to short stack with only two pair. Still, I don't think you can fold.


GG

[Cleveland Guy]

[ QUOTE ]
$16 turbo, I think you gotta call. $16 tells you how fishy they are, and it's also how cheap it is to start a new one.


[/ QUOTE ]

1. Why is he a Fish cause he is play a $16 Turbo?
2. Just cause it's "cheap" for you, doesn't make it "cheap" for someone who that is where their bankroll is.

[Rolen]

Ok well maybe he wouldn't smooth call a set of twos!

Yay, my read was right, even though I reconsidered it + changed it because of peer pressure!

Does that make me a half winner or a half loser

[KenProspero]

[ QUOTE ]
how abou the possiblity of folding and getting ITM since 900 stack is about to be knocked out soon.

[/ QUOTE ]

Weak play.

If you win this hand you almost certainly win the tournament. To give up a probably third for an almost certain first has got to be a no brainer.

[KenProspero]

Fortunately, there's no peer pressure at the tables!

[John Hurst]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I posted this hand is because this loss made me rethink my strategy on the bubble and caused me to play more timid the rest of the day, folding hands I would normally steal with.


[/ QUOTE ]
This could be a major leak. You have to just forget about this hand and realize you were just going to lose your chips on this flop against 22.