General 3 handed EV info request

[Rolen]

How does EV say one should play 3 handed? Should I be looking to take risks and double up because reaching first is +3 units whereas second is +1?

If we all have even stacks in a 3 handed game, should I be actively looking to get myself into a coinflip situation? I'll run an ICM but since i'm not too proficient with it, i'd be grateful if someone could tell me for sure.

Thanks!

[dogsballs]

I dunno about ICM no's etc, someone'll show up and tell us, but I get in there and start stealing and gambling once ITM. The difference between 3rd and 2nd isn't that great, so no point clinging on to sneak into 2nd. 1st is where the jump into the gold is.

[Rolen]

Hm, here's the results of the one I just ran, though I may be interpreting it wrong..

Each player has 1 unit of chips, each player has 0.333 of EV. If two of them go into a coinflip..

One of them drops down to 0.2 EV (3rd place money) which is a difference of -0.1333
The other guy's EV rises to 0.433, a difference of +0.1

So in other words, a 50/50 at this stage is bad. I'm gonna see if I can figure out where the break even EV point is (what advantage you need to break even long term)..I'm guessing it's gonna be something like 60/40

[Rolen]

Hm, I reckon you need to win the hand 133 times out of 100, + 60/40 is winning the hand 150 times out of 100, so the break even point is a bit less than 60/40, maybe something like 56/44?

Can someone let me know if i'm talking crap?

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
Hm, here's the results of the one I just ran, though I may be interpreting it wrong..

Each player has 1 unit of chips, each player has 0.333 of EV. If two of them go into a coinflip..

One of them drops down to 0.2 EV (3rd place money) which is a difference of -0.1333
The other guy's EV rises to 0.433, a difference of +0.1

So in other words, a 50/50 at this stage is bad. I'm gonna see if I can figure out where the break even EV point is (what advantage you need to break even long term)..I'm guessing it's gonna be something like 60/40

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just a beginner, so don't take this too seriously.

It looks to me that the reason you don't want a coinflip is that you have to share the spoils with the third player. His $EV has gone up to .366 from .333 and you have taken all the risk.

This seems to conflict with "Play for first, settle for third". I'm a little confused. (Nothing new there)


GG

[Phil Van Sexton]

ICM (or $EV) with 3 even stacks=0.333

Lose=0.200
Win=0.433

50/50
(0.433 * 0.5) + (0.2 * 0.5) = 0.3165

56/44
(0.433 * 0.56) + (0.2 * 0.44) = 0.33048

60/40
(0.433 * 0.6) + (0.2 * 0.4) = 0.3398

So you are right, 56/44 is about the break even. However, it is never this simple because there are blinds involved.

Let's say you start with even stacks (2666, 2667, 2667). You are the BB at the 200/400 level. The button pushes. The SB folds.

If you fold, your ICM is 0.3172 (ie not 0.33 because you lost 400).

If you call and win, your ICM will be 0.4383 (ie not 0.4333 because you win an extra 200 from the SB, and the SB loses 200).

Now, look at 50/50:
(0.4383 * 0.5) + (0.2 * 0.5) = 0.31915

Folding is 0.3172
Coinflip is 0.31915

Hmmmmmmmm

[Rolen]

Of course, I completely overlooked the blinds.

Looks like 50/50 is just that! Thanks for your help

[CheckFold]

Where do you get the adjusted EV of 0.4333? If you were all even then you win and go heads up with 2/3 of the chips, isn't your new EV 2/3*0.8 = 0.53? So the overall EV of the play would be 1/2*0.2 + 1/2*0.533 = 0.366, which means you should take that flip against your original 0.33 EV.

[Rolen]

The most EV one can possibly have is 0.5, since that's what you get with 100% of the chips

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
So you are right, 56/44 is about the break even. However, it is never this simple because there are blinds involved.

Let's say you start with even stacks (2666, 2667, 2667). You are the BB at the 200/400 level. The button pushes. The SB folds.


[/ QUOTE ]

I took "3 even stacks" to mean equal after posting blinds. But even that is not quite accurate, since it doesn't take into account who must post blinds the next hand.

My head hurts ...


GG

[Phil Van Sexton]

0.4333 is the % of the prize pool.

You get 50% for finishing 1st, so 53% is impossible.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you are right, 56/44 is about the break even. However, it is never this simple because there are blinds involved.

Let's say you start with even stacks (2666, 2667, 2667). You are the BB at the 200/400 level. The button pushes. The SB folds.


[/ QUOTE ]

I took "3 even stacks" to mean equal after posting blinds. But even that is not quite accurate, since it doesn't take into account who must post blinds the next hand.

My head hurts ...


GG

[/ QUOTE ]

My point of showing the example was just to illustrate that you can't just say "I need 56%". This number changes greatly every hand as the blinds move.

I'm not it matters that much. Most situations described as coinflips are not 50/50 anyway.

For example, QQ vs AKo (http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=&h=Qs+Qd%0D%0AAs+Kd) = 56/44

[teamdonkey]

The edge you need to make a play +$EV changes throughout the game. All other things being equal, after figuring everything in (blinds, folding equity, etc) you need a 65/35 edge to make a break even $EV play on the bubble. With three left this changes dramatically, now 55.7/44.3 is the break even point. Heads up it drops to 50/50.

So to answer your original question, you should be much more willing to take risks once ITM than you were earlier in the game, and even more so once HU.

[Degen]

"Should I be looking to take risks ... because reaching first is +3 units whereas second is +1?"

YES YES YES YES

"Should I be looking to take risks and double up because reaching first is +3 units whereas second is +1?"

No. You should not be looking to double up, necesarily unless you are a short stack...you should be looking to steal a whole lotta blinds with any two. Obviously this is opponent dependent, but against your STD TAP's you should be moving all in constantly and amassing a huge stack.

The point that you made here that is so important is the fact that you make 2 more units for 1st but only one more for 2nd.



Degen