mark, sears, zoe....

[scalf]

/forums/images/icons/grin.gif sears formed a beautiful short term bullish butterfly...about the day you commented....had to laugh..up a point from short term swing position on sears.....we do not have a failure to communicate,,,,i just am currently trying to learn the swing trades..lol...but i think you would make a good mutual fund manager....

my thoughts: you like the banks/financials...and peurto rico...getting some tax angle vacations,lol....

whi has broken thru 50 d ma...but bank, politically vulnerable....may have formed double bottomm...looks ok...

rdn lotta insider sales..., ?real estate bubble exposure(which is overdone imo), profit margin/oprting margin 36.9/53.3 %..gotta love that...may have found double bottom in early oct...resistance at 50d ma key...

fbp love pr a lot...lol...bounced beautifully off 200dma....approaching 50 d ma, where resistance has been significant....

mntr up 50% recently....?breast implant problems, even tho should be clean now...good positioning in erectile dysfuction field given huge gain in market due to viagr...off 50 d ma...zoomed thru 200 mda may be rocket to sky...more of a momentum play right now....might be a quick 10 bagger with options...jmho..gl /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

gotta go..gl

[Mark Heide]

scalf,

I don't see any upside to Sears in the near future. Here's a link to Quicken's quick analysis of it's intrinsic value.

http://www.quicken.com/investments/seceval/?p=S&cmetric=intrinsic

I think WHI represents a good value, but with market conditions, I am waiting until next year to see where they are at in the spring, but they are on my list. They reported good earnings this quarter.

RDN has consistantly done well. Here's a chart from the last three years:

http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=3YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=RDN

If you look at RDN's chart you will notice that they were always doing well in March and April, but the last two summers they have followed the market with some selling. I would wait for more positive signs in the ecomomy next year. But, you could probably make some money off this in the spring.

FBP has done tremendously during the last three years:

http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=3YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=FBP

But, as before, I'm waiting until spring or some economic news that shows the economy is stable.

Technically MNTR travels the rocky road, but as a long term investment it has plenty of potential:

http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=3YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=MNTR

It is still undervalued. Furthrmore, the plus with these stocks that I like is they are all undervalued in todays bull run. They don't respond to the emotion of a widely held stock like IBM where the fluctuations are unpredictable. The PokerBabe bought it at the right time, but now everyone loves it, and to me that means it's a sure time to sell and collect the profits. Here's IBM's intrinsic value calculated by Quicken:

http://www.quicken.com/investments/seceval/?cmetric=intrinsic&cursym=&csym=&csym1=&csym2=&ini tearnec=&egrrbtn=&egrdd=&egrec=&dcrrbtn=&dcrec=&dc rdd=&p=IBM

I'm working on my list of stocks to trade for next year. Because of the volitility of the market, uncertain and mixed economic results, and will not participate until we start getting better economic news along with resolving some international issues.

Good Luck

Mark "The Bear"

[Wildbill]

With a GDP almost certain to come in at over 3%, possibly close to 4%, how much more positive news do you need? I know the media will jump all over it as they seem to like to do these days and say "but, economists expect the number to be down in Q4", still I just wonder what the hell is good news to people anymore. It isn't 5% growth as we might wish for and sure it has its ups and downs, but seems very likely that the year will end up at worst 2.8% or better unless some major terrorist catastrophe hits. I have no doubt in my mind that there will be no Iraq war or even big action for quite some time. While the Iraqis always stall and dicker, no doubt Bush and his team will do it too because you can't just drive up halfway around the world with enough troops and firepower to fight this type of war they have been selling recently. My guess is this year will end at 3.1% GDP growth, almost no inflation, unemployment staying slightly under 6%, corporate profits starting a slow move to the uptrend, and a better than expected Christmas shopping season because everyone is worried about consumer sentiment numbers when its real rate of personal income growth that matters. Is all that really so bad? Whether it moves the markets or not, well I give up. The media and the stupid public wins. As they say, the market is always right, even if it makes little sense. If people really want to fear that half the companies use bad accounting and the other half will not see any growth for 3 years, well so be it...

[Mark Heide]

Wildbill,

I believe that the economy is growing, but at a slow pace, and the stock market does not reflect the real value of the economy for the next four quarters. I've listed some stories and reports that justify what I've been posting about, so there is some subjectiveness, but the economic growth does not support the current pricing in the stock market. I believe that the stock market is behaving irrationally, and will fix itself. Furthermore, I think we are going to new lows in the future. Part of my reasoning is due to the fact that the average person now has access to the stock market due to the internet. This makes the conditions different than any other post-recession in the economy, and still accounts for the continuing irrational behaviour.

Consumer Confidence continues to drop.
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/consumer.cfm

U.S. Leading Index Declines for Fourth Straight Month.
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/press.cfm?press_id=1988

Help Wanted Index next update October 31st, here's Septembers report. I consider this an important indicator of economic growth. According to some analysts, this is one of contributing factors to a slow recovery.

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/helpwanted.cfm

Retail Sales Fall
http://money.cnn.com/2002/10/11/news/economy/retail_sales/index.htm

Economic Forcast from Conference Board
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/stalk.cfm#forecast

Purchasing Managers Index
http://www.napm.org/ISMReport/ROB102002.cfm

Industrial Output Drops
http://money.cnn.com/2002/10/17/news/economy/industrial.reut/index.htm

Unemployment Rate Falls
http://money.cnn.com/2002/10/04/news/economy/unemployment/index.htm

Good Luck

Mark "The Bear"