Worse Than a Downswing

[The Dude]

Allow me to rant for awhile here. I'm not sure what the point of this post will be, I'm just going to start typing and see where it goes.

I've been breakeven now for just about 20,000 hands. Incidentally, I've had no major losing sessions during that span. In fact, I haven't even had a huge swing within a session. It's just been a long, tough dry spell of breakeven poker.

Now, to look at it from different angle, it's only been a week. Well okay, five days. Yup, I'm griping here about how much it sucks to go a whole entire five days and not even lose. (I'm actually up 12 BBs.) So what's the big deal? Not even a week! I was down 200 BBs in the entire month of December, so why is this a big deal? Well, I only worked 13 hours in December, since I was taking the Holidays off to be with the family. This plateau in my earnings is right about 40 hours. And it's the hours that dragged by that have worn me down, not the bad beats.

It's been a long time since a bad beat bothered me. When I decided to quit my job and play professionally a year ago, this was one area I wanted to have strict control over. And the only times I've ever been frustrated since are when I've been on sketchy ground bankroll-wise. And I'm completely fine with my bankroll right now. But after a session of 8-tabling, where I "should" be up about 60 BBs, breaking even feels like getting my ass kicked. I mean it, when I don't check how I'm doing along the way, I'll go to log off and think, "I'm even! Wow, it feels like I should be down a ton." Many pros have this same reaction to long breakeven sessions. Well, the feeling of getting clobbered on the tables has been non-stop for 40 hours now, and it's finally become frustrating.

I guess frustration isn't really the word I'm looking for. Helplessness is more like it. It just feels like there's absalutely nothing I can do to win a pot - not a decent pot, anyways. It seems like every big pot I'm in I lose, and every time I get a premium hand or hit a flop everyone folds. That's not uncommon, tons of poker players see through short term glasses - I'm just not used to me doing it.

I think I've been playing B+ poker most of this time. Far, far from losing poker, but definately not my best either. That is, until last night's session. I played very well last night, and took those poor suckers on Party+skins for 5 BBs in the process. Haha, stupid fish. But anyway, I'm kind of proud of myself for maintaining a good level of aggression throughout this period, and not curling into a shell the way a few solid players I know react to bad downswings. I'm playing well, yet I feel hopeless.

Now, if I were a live player, it would have taken me about 15 weeks to get this many hands in. I can't imagine what this stretch would feel like if it were, instead of 40 hours, 600 hours. And after doing a bit of math, a player with my winrate and standard deviation can have up to 32,400 hands of break-even poker. So I'm about two-thirds of the way through what might turn out to be the longest dry spell possible for me. Hmm. I just thought about that for a minute and decided that it doesn't make the whole process any easier. Oh well.

So I guess I'm going to go swimming for awhile. Then I'll probably finish a book I've been on for awhile (I'm about 400 pages shy of finishing the unabridged version of Les Miserables). Who knows, maybe I'll get around to grinding out some more hours tonight.

Well, that is all for now. I'm not specifically looking for advice, nor sympathy, nor any reaction really. Feel free to respond however you choose. I guess I still don't know what the point of this post was.

[DeeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
Then I'll probably finish a book I've been on for awhile (I'm about 400 pages shy of finishing the unabridged version of Les Miserables).

[/ QUOTE ]

My favourite book. Doesn't help you win @ poker. It's worth getting to the end.

[Surfbullet]

It happens... You'll make it through.

Surf

[Eihli]

i had a 30k run at break even

[Danenania]

Good post. I agree that breakeven stretches are much worse than downswings. Perhaps a major reason is that noticeable fluctuations (up or down) differentiate sessions from each other and create the feeling of progress. Hell, fluctuations are what we come for, really. But when I look back over a breakeven period, it's just an empty plane. All hands blend together and a vague "beaten" feeling is all I can remember. In the end it feels like I've just spent a week of my life on the treadmill. I know of no solutions besides the only real solution for all variance related ills--suck it up and keep playing.

That or buy some more monitors.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
But when I look back over a breakeven period, it's just an empty plane. All hands blend together and a vague "beaten" feeling is all I can remember.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well said.

[ QUOTE ]
That or buy some more monitors.

[/ QUOTE ]
You make me laugh. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2005759&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

[xCEO]

[ QUOTE ]
So what's the big deal? Not even a week!

[/ QUOTE ]

[Zetack]

I had a 21k breakeven stretch this year. My low point during it was down 120 BB's but mostly I was somewhere in the -65 to -90 BB range forever and ever and ever...

And I don't play anything like the number of hands you do so this thing dragged on and on and on...

The frustrating thing for me was that I could never get any traction. If I had a good winning session it would be followed by a brutal losing session. If I'd ground out smallish wins for several sessions I'd turn around and give it all back next session or two.

The other hard thing was that I always seemed to be playing under water, trying to grind my way positive for any given session or at least limit the damages. I spent much much more time in the red than I did in the black.

Of course that ended for me...so that was good.

--Zetack

[LaggyLou]

Get away from poker for a while. Check out the baseball spring training action. Maybe go see Sidd Finch pitch or something.

[Chairman Wood]

You are still my Hero!

[bicyclekick]

Try 6 tables for a few sessions.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Try 6 tables for a few sessions.

[/ QUOTE ]

he plays 8 (or 12 apparently). I can't tell if you're telling him to play less or play more

[sthief09]

I've always said that I'd almost rather lose a lot than break even. breaking even just sucks. it's so boring

[brick]

GOT has to grow another afro before you will start winning again.
good luck

[CostaRicaBill]

While I'm new to 5/10 6max, my win rate is about .21/BB100 over the last 22k hands. I usually have a good attitude toward the swings in poker but now I'm having to force myself to play every day, and at the end of every breakeven session I feel deeply frustrated/angry. I might as well be playing solitaire for 5 hours a night, it just doesn't seem like I'm making any progress.

I go up 50-70 bb's and IMMEDIATELY drop right back down to zero in a whirlwind of suckouts, capped turns with missed nut draws and general donk tomfoolery. After getting checkraised on the turn/river for the millionth time I start to lose my mind. Oh well, I guess I'm not in 3/6 land where it's safe and warm anymore. /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

[PokerAce]

For those of you who do this for a living and would rather lose than break even, I think you need your heads examined. All kidding aside, I just went pro about three weeks ago and three days into it I started a 2 week long 275+ BB downswing.

Personally, I hate breakeven periods as much as the next guy, but I would much rather have that $1650 sitting in my bankroll.

I felt the same way that you do. No matter how good my hand was, or how big of a favorite I was, somebody outdrew me. When I did have the nuts, everyone folded. I somehow managed to lose every big pot I got involved in. When I had a winning day, it was minor compared to each losing day I had. I went 6 days without winning at one point. Most days ended with me getting fed up and frustrated to the point where I just shut everything down and forgot about poker.

I reviewed my game and played my best, and eventually things turned around for me. They will for you too.

Also, beware what you wish for, you just might get it.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
GOT has to grow another afro before you will start winning again.
good luck

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
For those of you who do this for a living and would rather lose than break even, I think you need your heads examined. All kidding aside, I just went pro about three weeks ago and three days into it I started a 2 week long 275+ BB downswing.

Personally, I hate breakeven periods as much as the next guy, but I would much rather have that $1650 sitting in my bankroll.

I felt the same way that you do. No matter how good my hand was, or how big of a favorite I was, somebody outdrew me. When I did have the nuts, everyone folded. I somehow managed to lose every big pot I got involved in. When I had a winning day, it was minor compared to each losing day I had. I went 6 days without winning at one point. Most days ended with me getting fed up and frustrated to the point where I just shut everything down and forgot about poker.

I reviewed my game and played my best, and eventually things turned around for me. They will for you too.

Also, beware what you wish for, you just might get it.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not really saying he'd rather lose, he's just saying that it can be more frustrating.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Try 6 tables for a few sessions.

[/ QUOTE ]

he plays 8 (or 12 apparently). I can't tell if you're telling him to play less or play more

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure BK is telling him to play less.

[turnipmonster]

whenever I have a bad swing, at the time I do my best to play well. I don't think I've ever not found holes in my game, though, whenever I take the time to analyze it. invariably I look back a month later and realize I wasn't playing nearly as well as I thought.

I've gone through the same endless cycles with music. whenever I feel like I'm playing well, I just remind myself that I thought I was playing well a year ago and today even my bad days are much better than my best day a year ago. in short, it's probably best to have a lot of humility and perspective about how well you are actually playing.

--turnipmonster

[A_C_Slater]

I find your pointless post to be highly inspirational. This is going in my favorites.

[pshabi]

I'm just climbing out of a downswing (I pray to god it's not a mirage) where I lost 200bb in around 2,000 hands and I play 10,000 hands/month.

I love/need my secondary income from poker and believe me, the mind trip is pretty rough for that stretch man. It's quite bewildering. Good Luck.

[pshabi]

[ QUOTE ]
Get away from poker for a while.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hate to admit it, but that ain't real easy for me and I'm assuming a lot of people on this board.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
I've always said that I'd almost rather lose a lot than break even. breaking even just sucks. it's so boring

[/ QUOTE ]

I would much rather break even.

[scrub]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've always said that I'd almost rather lose a lot than break even. breaking even just sucks. it's so boring

[/ QUOTE ]

I would much rather break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

Same here.

scrub

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've always said that I'd almost rather lose a lot than break even. breaking even just sucks. it's so boring

[/ QUOTE ]

I would much rather break even.

[/ QUOTE ]


you know what i mean idiot

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Then I'll probably finish a book I've been on for awhile (I'm about 400 pages shy of finishing the unabridged version of Les Miserables).

[/ QUOTE ]

Im reading the Iliad. It's a nice diversion and gives the noggin a break.

Last time Slavic and I were eating I warmed his ear about the same thing.

Break even online for 20K+ hands. Spinning the wheels in the mud. It sucks.

However, I don't agree it's worse than any downswing. Losing sucks even more.

And yes, it sucks even worse live. Im still looking for the black in live play this year. Im just a titch in the red. Was almost there until the last 2 nights. yay.

Hang in there.

You're not alone.

b

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
All kidding aside, I just went pro about three weeks ago

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you please elaborate a bit on this? Like, what did you do to go pro? What were you doing before you went pro? I'm just curious what it's like to be a pro and how your life has changed.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All kidding aside, I just went pro about three weeks ago

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you please elaborate a bit on this? Like, what did you do to go pro?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's like some paperwork and stuff you have to sign.

[GuyOnTilt]

Despite how much we've talked about it, I still think maybe you don't fully understand how swingy of a game limit hold'em is and how that swinginess translates into real life. You ran very hot for two straight months dude. Maybe because it was two months you got yourself believing you really were THAT good and that winrate, or something very close to it, was your true earn and sustainable. It wasn't and it's not. Cold streaks happen. They happen for 10k hand stretches, they happen for 25k hand stretches, and they happen for 100k stretches. That's just the nature of the game we chose to play.

Honestly, I'm a little surprised at this post of yours. You've been around me enough to know about the swings and runs that I've gone through, both short and "long" term. I guess maybe it's one of those things where you don't truly believe or fully comprehend until you experience it first hand. And when you have a hot run of 50k or 100k hands, it's very easy to trick yourself into thinking you're better than you really are.

I'm actually kind of glad you hit this streak, not 'cause I'm a jerk-of-a-friend, but because I think/hope it'll have a positive impact on your mental game. This game will humble you very quickly if you get cocky. My advice isn't to take a day off or start playing less or anything like that. Instead, read those Zen books that you bought a couple months ago. Start with Suzuki's Essays in Zen Buddhism or Book of Five Rings, both good introductory books. Read it. Reread it. Think about what it has to say and how to apply it to your everyday life and mindset and how it applies to your approach to both online and live poker. Your outlook on your game and your results will change dramatically.

GoT

[The Dude]

I think you're reading into my post more than you should. That's okay, I kind of figured people would. Like I said in my post, I really have no idea why I posted it - I wasn't looking for consolation, or sympathy, or advice, or anything really. It wasn't even because it was something I needed to get off my chest. I dunno, I just wrote it.

Well, anyway, instead of finishing Les Miserables I slept. My sleep schedule has been so screwed up recently that I'm not sure if I needed the sleep or not, but there it was. Now it's time to work. I'll let you guys know how it goes.

[PokerAce]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All kidding aside, I just went pro about three weeks ago

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you please elaborate a bit on this? Like, what did you do to go pro?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's like some paperwork and stuff you have to sign.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha. What did I do to go pro? I quit my job and I'm now supporting myself with my poker winnings. There's nothing special you need to do. I'm by no means an expert in the game, but I feel I'm good enough to beat it at a rate high enough to live on.

On second thought, I guess there are things you need to do. You need to have several months living expenses saved. You need a very large bankroll. You need to figure out medical insurance. Things like that.

[A_C_Slater]

GuyOnTilt, have you yourself had 50K hand break even stretches? 100K hands? How long does it take you to play this amount of hands?

EDIT: I suggest The Dude read a book entitled "Journey to Ixtlan" it's like Zen Buddhism, but better...more practical.

[jstewsmole]

its funny u posted this because i just had the worst week of my poker "carreer". Though i probalbly avg about 20 -25 hrs of poker a week usually just two tabling it certainly did not last as long as ur streak but never the less it was about 8 days of losing. This following the first 3 weeks of march making about 10 or 12 bb/100. Like a previous poster said u start thinking that ur better than u are while on a hot run. I swear i lost so many hands where i had a dominating hand heads up with someone and they caght there kicker on the turn or river or they pulled some kinda draw outa there a-- it was making me sick. On the last day of march after making through this horrid week i recorded my biggest winnign session that ive ever had. Youll get through.

Mike Caro has a kick ass web site called poker1.com ibelieve, and it has a lot of free articles and stuff. There s actually quite a good one on there entitled What to do when ur losing" or something along those lines which i found to be a good read while on my bad run. Poker is just about making the best decisions possible on each and every hand. As long as ur confident ur doing that what more can u do. YOull eventually probably get a sick hot streak that will more than make up for ur losses or in ur case ur breakeveness for lack of a better term.

Also im reading the making of a poker player by matt matros (which is a good read by the way)and i believe he says in there that he doesnt recommend anyone making poker there sole source of income or living until that person has experienced a really bad run.

good night now

[jstewsmole]

One more thing dude, if all else fails what i like to do is put some head phones on, and put in my cassette of cards being shuffled and dealt while laying on my favorite rug /images/graemlins/cool.gif

late

[Yeknom58]

Yea,

A 100k cold streak must really really suck. I can't see how this happens without playing poorly for long stretches or you're just the most unlucky mofo on the planet. What are the odds of just running bad for 100k..I'm thinking a more likely scenario is run bad 40k, tilt/play bad 20k, run bad 40k but just getting crappy cards/bad beats for 100k straight seems unlikely.

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All kidding aside, I just went pro about three weeks ago

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you please elaborate a bit on this? Like, what did you do to go pro?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's like some paperwork and stuff you have to sign.

[/ QUOTE ]

And don't forget orientation day... that is very important as well.

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
One more thing dude, if all else fails what i like to do is put some head phones on, and put in my cassette of cards being shuffled and dealt while laying on my favorite rug /images/graemlins/cool.gif

late

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but it sucks when nihilists show up at your door and you're unprepared... especially if they brought the ferret.

[Blarg]

You go nowhere in poker without skill, but your life goes nowhere without confidence and a clear head. I've played my fair share of poker with none of the above.

I've taken a couple of months off and feel worlds better for it. I could have come back earlier, but it just didn't feel right. Well, not all that much earlier -- what really prompted my extended stay was being as close to deathly ill as I've ever felt for more than a month, which pretty much completely incapacitated me. I think that kind of shook up a bit of my confidence in life in general, not that I'm exactly an optimist in the first place.

Anyway, now that I feel less shaky in a lot of ways, I'm back to poker. I wouldn't suggest going through a crisis to take your mind off poker, but time spent away from poker, voluntary or not, gives you a chance to put things into proper perspective -- both in terms of poker and otherwise.

Time is a great cure. Often you can't force a psychological rebuilding; it just has to unfold in its own way and at its own pace, almost while you sit back helplessly watching and hoping. I mean you do what you can do, and then after a certain point, you're almost a spectator to your own recovery, and there's nothing more you can provide to make things any better. You just have to prime the pump with your best efforts and intentions, keep doing what you can, and see how it all turns out eventually.

Some things can't be forced, but given a little time to work themselves out, or to at least work themselves out of center stage in the mind and emotions, many problems can come to assume their natural, more realistic contours instead of the distorted ones our own personalities and habits of thought force them into as we try to understand and cope with the world.

Time can be a good ally. Maybe a little time off would let you begin the natural process of remembering the value of some good things and seeing some others in a more helpful way.

[Michael Davis]

"I've always said that I'd almost rather lose a lot than break even. breaking even just sucks. it's so boring"

Maybe there is a Santa Claus because you got what you wished for.

-Michael

[Catch of the Day]

Maybe you should practice better table selection by not trying to steal mine...Damn account linkage...or we could just proxy and then collude. Lemme know?

We might go check out aguacalliente tonight if you wanna play live and get faded for free. That always makes me feel better.

Catch-

[The Dude]

You've got the wrong scene sequence. Maude and her goons come in when The Dude is lying on his new rug. The scene where the nihilists barge in with the ferret is when he's in his bathtub doing a j.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess maybe it's one of those things where you don't truly believe or fully comprehend until you experience it first hand

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very true. And not just involving poker swings but also in regards to many events that happen in one's life.

Although it does make it a little easier if you watch another's play, that you respect, go through it/hear about it and come out of the other side. Not many really have that opportunity to do that.

b

[TheCaptain]

what a stupid post, "Worse Than a Downswing", do you want a hug or something?

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm actually kind of glad you hit this streak, not 'cause I'm a jerk-of-a-friend, but because I think/hope it'll have a positive impact on your mental game. This game will humble you very quickly if you get cocky.

[/ QUOTE ]

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
what a stupid post, "Worse Than a Downswing", do you want a hug or something?

[/ QUOTE ]
No hugs, please. But I do accept checks.

[surfdoc]

This thread just serves as a reminder of something I already knew: B&M poker sucks ass.

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
You've got the wrong scene sequence. Maude and her goons come in when The Dude is lying on his new rug. The scene where the nihilists barge in with the ferret is when he's in his bathtub doing a j.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol I know, and I was thinking that as I was typing, but the nihilists were so much more entertaining than Maude.

"Hey, ya know... this is, like... a private residence, man"

TBL is one of the funniest films ever, IMHO.