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View Full Version : Al clears the fog yet again:


Warren Whitmore
10-19-2002, 11:09 PM
My win rate has always been lower at paradise than other internet sites. This has mystified me for quite some time. /forums/images/icons/confused.gif I did my best to figure out why. Relative to other sites I tested for loosness of games, win rates at various times of the day, the four primary games, and all of the various limits of play. My win rate persisted at being lower across the board than at other sites.
Then just when I about to give up the search someone posted a message asking about the merits of learning one form of poker to improve thier play at another form of poker. Al answered that it dident work that way and as an illustration mentioned that when people where trying to learn a foreign language they did better to focus on the language that they were trying to learn than to diversify by learning other similar languages.
That was the key. I now believe what is happening is that at parasise because it is such a large site offers players whatever game and structure they want. As a consequence players are always playing in thier comfort zone. This means I cannot get as much of an edge because all of the players in a game are at a similar skill leval. Contrast this with a small site. People who are marginal players are afraid to start a game or play short handed. As a consequence they will join a full game even if they are not that familiar with that particular game or structure. Because I play all games and structures equally well I can simply scan all of the small sites and choose the weakest game which can never be at paradise. This is why on average my win rate is lower there.
To test this hypothesis I looked for names in the various poker games. Sure enough at paradise the Omaha players were generally playing omaha and the stud players were generally playing stud etc. At the smaller sites players were playing whichever games and limits had full games going.

Thanks again Al, as usual your advice has made me $.

baggins
10-20-2002, 07:24 AM
good insight. good observation. thanks for that.

Al Schoonmaker
10-20-2002, 12:57 PM
You're welcome.

Al

happyjaypee
10-22-2002, 04:10 AM
Good post. I played paradise too and found i did better on other sites. I was wondering why.

I think you are right. That post would shut out some conspiracie theorists.

-happy /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

24hPOKER
10-22-2002, 08:11 AM
Very good post. I will have to think about how to use that in my advertising...

I can see all your conclusions prove themselves at 24hPOKER.

We started up offering only Limit Hold'em. Players of course had to play that. We then introduced Omaha and immediately a few players left Hold'em and played Omaha instead. A few days later, the most insistent Hold'em players ventured to the Omaha tables. (mostly PL)

Then we decided to have a go at PL and NL (for Hold'em). Now the most insistent limit players found more players at HE PotLimit and started playing that instead.

At the moment we have more players playing Omaha PL 2/4 than we have HE Limit 2/4. So not only did they leave their game type and limit-type but also their lowlimit games.

Thank you for a very illuminating post.

Best regards

J_V
10-22-2002, 03:06 PM
You can't possibly believe this. I am always amazed at how people convince themselves of such crap and believe it so strongly.

While it may be true people are playing out of their comfort zone occasionally, this would only account for a small portion of -EV. I could come up with ten more likely factors.

J_V
10-22-2002, 03:14 PM
You guys are really amazing. Thank god I didn't major in psychology, I would have shot myself long ago.

You do were at paradise because the players there are better.