AKs UTG

[antidan444]

It's becoming clear to me I have a lot to learn. Might as well dive in and start posing iffy hands ...

PP $50 NL. I ($53) have A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif UTG and limp. UTG+2, who just sat down and posted, raises his post to $2. Loose somewhat laggy MP calls. I call.

Flop (~$7) - 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gifA /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I check hoping to checkraise UTG+2, he bets $3, MP folds, I make it $10. UTG+2 re-raises the minimum to $17.

Blech. I thought about mucking it, but called planning to check any card and see what he does. I have no idea if this is what I should have planned to do, but it's what I did, so you know.

Turn (~$41) - 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I checked. He went all-in for his last $31. I mucked.

Help?

[Spladle Master]

I do everything differently than you did.

Raise pre-flop. Bet the flop. Call the turn.

[Bongo]

I generally don't mind folding a pair, but this hand is suspect. I can't really put him on a two pair or a str8. Then only trips remain, but for some reason I put him on an ace. Maybe it's becaus sets always smooth call raises (I almost never do, but it's my experience that others do). So, I think he has an ace. I say reraise the flop all-in, or at least bet the turn. Since you called on the flop I think you should bet the turn. If he has an ace he'll pay off and if he has a set then you have outs, but as I said, I think he had an ace. I don't think your fold is terribly bad play. It might even be right. The situation is not clean cut. To conclude, in this particular hand I wouldn't check-fold the turn. I'd bet and hope.

[xorbie]

People who post UTG+1 tend not to be too great. I think that limping PF is ok on some tables (if you will get payed off when an A or K hits well enough), and it's also fine to just check this flop to the PF raiser. I do think it's better to check/call flop, check/call turn, lead out river unless some very interesting cards fall or he gets crazy with the betting.

This way you get the most out of AQ and lose the least to something wierd. I find it highly unlikely he is raising 55 here by the way, so the only thing to worry about is A5/A2. With the turn giving you the extra 9 outs, there's no way I'm folding this.

[crosse91]

i doubt he had put you on a-k, at least until the flop, so what do you think he's trying to represent here-or is he too straight forward for that?

[Logik]

Well if he has a set of fives, he may have outs but he's in horrible shape.

Board: 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 21.5909 % [ 00.18 00.03 ] { A/images/graemlins/heart.gifK/images/graemlins/heart.gif }
Hand 2: 78.4091 % [ 00.75 00.03 ] { 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif }

I'd personally put him on the pocket fives, pocket twos, but definately not the straight. Two pair is even questionable-- but I don't know if this player would push with a weak ace, because he got so much resistance on the flop.

[juggla]

I /images/graemlins/heart.gif that statment you just said Spladle /images/graemlins/tongue.gif You said it just as it should be said!

[xorbie]

People who post UTG+1 are probably way too straight forward for that. I seriously think it's possible he has AK or less here, and you are either seriously dominating or freerolling on that part of his hand range.

The times he has two pair (which is probably low given his PF raise) you are still about 1/4 to win and the times he has a set you're about 1/5.

It's 31 to call, 41 in the pot already. You only have to win about half the time to make this clearly a good play, so he only has to have AK or less half the time (actually less than this, because you drawout more often than he does when losing).

[DasLeben]

TPTK with nut flush draw and you mucked a ~2:1 call?

Do not be afraid of the straight on the board. With UTG+2's preflop raise, you can be basically guaranteed that he does not have a 3.

Honestly, I'm very certain that UTG+2 had AK/AQ/AJ based on his play. He had no reason to believe that you had AK (raise preflop!), so he probably thought that he was ahead and got aggressive with you. I certainly would in his spot.

So anyways. Raise preflop, bet the flop (3/4+ of the pot should be fine), and insta-call the turn.

[Bongo]

[ QUOTE ]

Honestly, I'm very certain that UTG+2 had AK/AQ/AJ based on his play. He had no reason to believe that you had AK (raise preflop!), so he probably thought that he was ahead and got aggressive with you. I certainly would in his spot.



[/ QUOTE ]

exactly

[Rastapopoulos]

Ok, since I either way DON'T wan't to be studying to my statistics exam, let's calculate a bit on this hand... /images/graemlins/wink.gif
My reasoning could be totally messed up here, if so please
<font color="orange">flame me </font> so I learn.

Oki, considering the pot odds, after his all-in bet on the turn, you have the following three outcomes:
(never mind money already invested)

1. You bet $31 that you will have the strongest hand after the river and win a total amount of $103 - $2 (party rake) = $101. Outcome: <font color="green"> Win $101 </font>

2. You bet $31 that you will have the strongest hand after the river and loose. Outcome: <font color=" red">Loose $31</font>

3. You turn down the offer to play the game, and fold. Outcome: +/- $0

If we divide option 2 with option 1 we get: 31/101 = ~ 0.307 = 30.7%
... that is how often you have to win in order to go break-even on the game.

---
Assumptions:

5 times out of 10 villain will have A/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
3 times out of 10 villain will have 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (to make it harder for you, villain is holding one of your outs)
2 times out of 10 villain will have A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

thus: 50% AK, 30% Set, 20% Top Two
---

According to Pstove,
A/images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif will hold up against:
- A/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 21.6% of the times
- 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 60.2% of the times
- A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 28.4% of the times

So accordingly, if we calculate your weighted probability by:
P = { (Probability for that villain is holding option A) * (Winning percentage of option A) }
+ { (Probability for that villain is holding option B) * (Winning percentage of option B) }
+ { (Probability for that villain is holding option C) * (Winning percentage of option C) }

we get:

P = (0.5 * 0.602) * (0.3 * 0.216) * (0.2 * 0.284) = ~ 0.423 = 42.3%

Conclusion:
Since 42.3 % &gt; 30.7 % you should play the game and have +EV.
(Read Criticism below)

Criticism:
Well, it all depends on the range of hands you put villain on. Now, in this situation I didn't count in AJ, AQ since I don't believe villain would play them so aggresicely. I didn't count in the straight since it seemed so remote, with a raise pre-flop.

So I let AK represent the best case scenario, and assumed the best case scenario would occur more often than the worst case scenario of a set (with a heart). Two pair seems more remote than a set, but let's say villain raises with A5s pre-flop.

Additionally, the pot-odds gets somewhat distorted when villain has AK, since you will only win the pot 20% of the time, and split the pot 40% of the time (when no heart comes on the river). You can of course calculate the correct pot odds for this, but I don't do it this time to keep the post more simple.

I still however think that it suggests a line of action and that you would only have slight if any -EV by calling.

Comments appreciated. They don't have to be nice. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[MarkL444]

given the way you played it, that river fold sucks. the odds youre getting, youre nut draw, and very possible best hand at the moment are just too much.

[xorbie]

I think your assumpts are off. Villian is way more likely to have AK than 55 with a raise in such early position. Also, your pokerstove statistics seem way off.

[Rastapopoulos]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your assumpts are off. Villian is way more likely to have AK than 55 with a raise in such early position. Also, your pokerstove statistics seem way off.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif
Heh... I wrote off the figures I had jolted down on my lecture notes in the wrong order. The Pstove percentages of AK against set, and AK against another AK should of course be replaced with each other.

Nevertheless, the math is the same, since I calculated it with the correct weight, I just posted a mixed-up formulation. Thanks for pointing that out.

And yes, AK, AJ, AQ are the more likely holdings, but it's this thing with statistics and assumptions: Rather than calculating optimistically or taking LEAPS with assumptions, it is better to be quite certain of what you're saying.

Through this calculation I show that if anything, a call will definetely not be very -EV. If you like, just alter the hand holding assumptions, and you'll get only an increase in the positive EV. I'll try to calculate with respect to the splitting of the pot against AK as well later.

[swolfe]

raise or at least limp/re-raise preflop
bet the flop

[antidan444]

Thanks for all the responses, guys.

Sometimes, I trust general guidelines of good NL play over my read on a particular hand. In this case, what happened was I kept thinking about the "don't spend more than 50 BB on TPTK" generalization I read about five or six months ago, and played scared poker. Reflecting on the hand, I think the most likely hand villian held was another AK and I was freerolling (and I think AQ is his next most likely hand). He could have AA but the percentages say no, and most players don't raise preflop with 55, 22 or anything with a 3 in it. I just didn't pull the trigger on the read because of that 50 BB rule.

This thread helped me realize that every situation is different and must be evaluated seperately, and also that I really need to work on and trust my hand reading.

Thanks, guys.

[orange]

Raise pre-flop, bet the flop, call the turn.

[soLit]

If he raised preflop, Either he hit a set ( i dont think so ) or he has a/k or maybe a/q a/j I think your still ahead.