bubble hand - what's your line?

[Scuba Chuck]

Does UTG stack affect your decision?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t590)
Hero (t848)
SB (t1385)
BB (t5177)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero .......[color]

[microbet]

UTG affected me, but not enough. I still pushed. Maybe a bad play. Last chance at any fold equity. UTG stack is not enough smaller than mine to let a decent hand go.

[TheUsher]

This is one of those REAL borderline decisions, and playing with eastbay's program now shows me just how much it is. I used to always push here but now you really have to take players reads into account.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
This is one of those REAL borderline decisions, and playing with eastbay's program now shows me just how much it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have access to Eastbay's program?

And, could you post the results in say over an hour or two...

[TheUsher]

It's my handy dandy new toy. I'll play it with constantly and won't leave home without it for the next day or so. Then I'll get something else. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Sure, I'll post the results later but I'll give eastbay a chance to post a screenshot first to be fair.

[Drac]

I voted fold. Two things I take into account: The size of UTG's stack and the fact that BB will almost certainly call me with any hand getting over 1.75 to 1 on his call, having tons of chips to risk and with the ability to knock out a player. You also have to get by the SB who will probably only call with a monster but still a (much smaller) factor in my decision. Of course I'm running into a streak of bubble finishes so I'm a complete wuss at this point.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
It's my handy dandy new toy. I'll play it with constantly and won't leave home without it for the next day or so. Then I'll get something else. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Sure, I'll post the results later but I'll give eastbay a chance to post a screenshot first to be fair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, it's been a while and no one's put this up, so forgive me if I'm stealing anyone's thunder.

I put SB on a fairly tight call: TT+, AQs+, AKo. BB I loosened up to 44, A7s, A9o, KJs.

If you buy those ranges, this puts the fold EV at 19.1% and the Push EV at 20.5% -- a clear push.

[Scuba Chuck]

David, try rerunning the numbers with any two cards. Or at least with the top 50% of hands. Then rerun the numbers. I won't have time to do this until this afternoon if you can't. with 1.75:1 odds, and such a puny stack by hero, your hand range is WAY too tight.

Scuba

[SuitedPair]

I voted fold, but I’m still young in my poker career (only 91 SNGs). My gut said push, but after thinking about it, I think I would fold. But without time to think about it at the table, it's likely I would have pushed.

If I’m BS, I’m calling with almost anything. I’m only risking 650 chips to win 1,150, so 1.7 on my money. I’d new to this, but doesn’t that mean that I only need 33% chance of winning to make it EV+? And if I lose my stack is still 2x second place. Also, by showing down a non-premium hand, it should cause others to think twice about stealing against me.

I would rather wait until BS was UTG or UTG+1 and folded and push against the other two stacks with a top 50% hand.

This could be a major leak in my game. I consider my play with a big stack to my left the biggest problem in my game.

[Scuba Chuck]

OK, I purposely didn't add any reads into this decision.

I should repost the poll, but I won't. When BS was not in the BB, he was VP$IP on every hand. How does that affect your decision?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
David, try rerunning the numbers with any two cards. Or at least with the top 50% of hands. Then rerun the numbers. I won't have time to do this until this afternoon if you can't. with 1.75:1 odds, and such a puny stack by hero, your hand range is WAY too tight.

Scuba

[/ QUOTE ]

You're assuming that the big stack is paying attention to pot odds. Most will still be playing based strictly on their holdings (playing looser with a big stack, but not anywhere close to 'any two' loose).

I think you've got great FE vs. the SB - he'd love to see you snapped off and will generally only be playing big cards here with the big stack left to act.

I agree that this most likely is fairly close given what one puts one's opponents on......I would push sans reads, and I'd feel more than okay with that. You'll have a hard time stealing with this stack configuration and I'm not sure you'll get the opportunity to push allin on the next hand (your only real nice FE for awhile).

I push....your hand rates to be best @ the table to begin with and I don't think the big stack will be as loose as he/she could be.

Yugoslav

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, I purposely didn't add any reads into this decision.

I should repost the poll, but I won't. When BS was not in the BB, he was VP$IP on every hand. How does that affect your decision?

[/ QUOTE ]

*Every hand* meaning he was calling anyone's allin with whatever he had??? If he's simply limping with any hand seeing cheap flops then I don't mind still pushing this. Otherwise, yeah, folding is a much stronger possibility and probably the right play.

Yugoslav

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I push....your hand rates to be best @ the table to begin with and I don't think the big stack will be as loose as he/she could be.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was part of my 'trick' in this question. Big stack appears very loose to me. At least via putting chips in the middle first. Had not seen him call anything with crap.

With regards to pot odds. I don't necessarily think my competition pays attention to them. But they will pay attention that I have 800 chips, and they have 5,000 and have already posted the BB. So, inadvertently, they ARE paying attention to pot odds.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
*Every hand* meaning he was calling anyone's allin with whatever he had??? If he's simply limping with any hand seeing cheap flops then I don't mind still pushing this. Otherwise, yeah, folding is a much stronger possibility and probably the right play.

[/ QUOTE ]

No never saw him call.

Here's what happened. SB and BB from this hand tangled about 3 hands earlier. SB lost. For the next 3 hands, BB (or big stack) raised and everyone folded. This was my first steal attempt.

These are some of the thoughts to consider. I am second to last stack on the bubble. Blinds are medium, and will probably bleed me to death waiting for shorty to bust out. When shorty does call, he's 50/50 to survive. If he survives, I'm now behind the 8-ball. Which now means I have a 50/50 survival rate from here.

So, would you rather challenge here, with a decent hand, and hope BB folds (because you do have some/little FE)? If he folds, you've bought yourself some time to **wait**. And, if BB calls, have a decent shot at winnig the hand.

I guess these are the two options. For me, I played it the aggressive route, and pushed. But I'm curious to know the results of the poll, and I'm now interested in The Usher's math results

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I push....your hand rates to be best @ the table to begin with and I don't think the big stack will be as loose as he/she could be.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was part of my 'trick' in this question.


[/ QUOTE ]

No...this was part of leaving out crucial information from your OP.

[ QUOTE ]

Big stack appears very loose to me. At least via putting chips in the middle first. Had not seen him call anything with crap.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, well, here is where I think you still have FE. There is a *very* good chance he'll look down and see rubbish hands and muck.

[ QUOTE ]

With regards to pot odds. I don't necessarily think my competition pays attention to them. But they will pay attention that I have 800 chips, and they have 5,000 and have already posted the BB. So, inadvertently, they ARE paying attention to pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorta but not really. Time and time again I see laydowns in the BB by plenty big stacks who should be calling with any two or close to it. So, yes I think the big stack will be looser than if he had fewer chips, but I don't really think he will be paying enough attention to stack sizes (as opposed to his hole cards) when it's time to call.

Yugoslav
FWIW Based on your read it sound like you're fairly sure it's a fold....I'm *more* than okay with that. In fact, I think being able to go with your read and fold KQs here is great as some people will be auto-pushing.

[Scuba Chuck]

Prize Structure Analysis ($EV)

Hand range of call by BB.
Any A, Any suited K, Any two broadway cards, Any pair, Q8s, Q9s, T9s, J9o, J9s, J8s

KQs has a 52% win % against that range:
That hand range is about top 50% of hands, so a 50/50 call probability

Folding = 18.9% of the equity prize pool
Pushing, steal blinds = 23.7% of the equity prize pool
Pushing, called and win = 27.1%

Pushing = (.5)(.237)+(.5)(.52)(.271) = .18896
Pushing = 18.9%

Damn, it doesn't get any closer than that! How does that change your opinion? I think this is now a fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW Based on your read it sound like you're fairly sure it's a fold....I'm *more* than okay with that. In fact, I think being able to go with your read and fold KQs here is great as some people will be auto-pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I pushed and lost. I wanted to see the math. KQs is not a strong hand at all. I think I'm giving it way too much hand strength.

[Scuba Chuck]

This is interesting, against this hand range, minimally you'd want 77+, or ATo+ for this to be greater than 0.5% +$EV over a fold. KQs falls below a hand like 55.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW Based on your read it sound like you're fairly sure it's a fold....I'm *more* than okay with that. In fact, I think being able to go with your read and fold KQs here is great as some people will be auto-pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I pushed and lost. I wanted to see the math. KQs is not a strong hand at all. I think I'm giving it way too much hand strength.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bah! I DON'T WANT TO HEAR/KNOW YOUR RESULTS.

KQs isn't a weak hand either, especially 3-handed. Look, part of the merit to pushing here is that if you don't, you're up against it and may not even get a chance to go allin with anything better with any FE. Generally you can pass this sort of thing up 4-handed to avoid the big stack if you're not getting good FE at the moment.....but I'm not so sure here....

I think it's close. I'd give some math but I don't have anything at my fingertips to do so here at work...TheUsher or someone will have to supply better math.

I think given your read you probably should have folded. However, I still don't know what your read is (you say 100% VP$IP when not in BB but then say he's only called allins with good hands....this being the actual case seems unlikely) and suspect that whatever it is *now* is affected by the results.

Yugoslav

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
KQs isn't a weak hand either, especially 3-handed. Look, part of the merit to pushing here is that if you don't, you're up against it and may not even get a chance to go allin with anything better with any FE. Generally you can pass this sort of thing up 4-handed to avoid the big stack if you're not getting good FE at the moment.....but I'm not so sure here....


[/ QUOTE ]

This is 4 handed.

But I agree that
"you're up against it and may not even get a chance to go allin with anything better with any FE." That was my reason for pushing. But I'm always interested in the math. See my math post.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

This is 4 handed.


[/ QUOTE ]

I meant 3-handed for purposes of how your hand stacks up here....not in terms of anything else like prize structure or future hands.

Yugoslav