KQo, implied odds enough to call the turn?

[fire_fly]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Just sat down, only reads on 1 guy and he was a 55 vpip, so that couldn't help narrow down his holdings...

Flop: (13 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Is this flop call too loose? I thought not, because I gave each overcard 1.5 outs, which makes it a 3 outer (backdoor strait might add a tad) So by my calculations, the pot was giving me 7.5:1 so for a 3 outer this is ok, no?

Turn: (9 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Again, I'm still counting this as a 3 outer, am I wrong in doing this? So the pot is giving me 11:1 but there are most likely 2 callers behind me, which would bump it up to 13:1, almost to the required 14:1 for a 3 outer, but I called giving myself implied odds here if I hit on the river. Is this a bad thing? I figured it wasn't going to happen often, but when I do hit I could collect 2, 3, or mabye even 4 bb when I bet and everyone calls on the river. So even if I still lost say a third or half the time, I would be recouping the 1 bb to call the turn bet by two or three or mabye four times when I do hit. You know, even hearing myself say this, it sounds like my reasoning is flawed, but I can't think of anyting better /images/graemlins/tongue.gif Any suggestions?

River: (14 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 16 BB

[gopnik]

I might have raised the flop to clear some out because the pot is very big. But I definitely would not fold. I'd call the turn too.

[iluzion]

if your counting it as a 3 outer, i fold.. if you give your self the full 6 outs to be ahead, then im calling that turn.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
...the pot was giving me 7.5:1 so for a 3 outer this is ok, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

First off, the pot was giving you 15 to 1...you could call.

[ QUOTE ]
Again, I'm still counting this as a 3 outer, am I wrong in doing this? So the pot is giving me 11:1 but there are most likely 2 callers behind me, which would bump it up to 13:1, almost to the required 14:1 for a 3 outer, but I called giving myself implied odds here if I hit on the river. Is this a bad thing? I figured it wasn't going to happen often, but when I do hit I could collect 2, 3, or mabye even 4 bb when I bet and everyone calls on the river. So even if I still lost say a third or half the time, I would be recouping the 1 bb to call the turn bet by two or three or mabye four times when I do hit. You know, even hearing myself say this, it sounds like my reasoning is flawed, but I can't think of anyting better /images/graemlins/tongue.gif Any suggestions?

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes my head hurt...you're over-thinking, here. Go like this: "I don't have a read on SB, so he could be a nutjob that defended his 84o and I'm drawing dead. If he's playing AK or AQ, I'm also dead. Any outs I have aren't clean, and I've only put 3SB into this pot so far." Get out.

Of course, I'm a weak-tight disciple of Lee Jones...

[fire_fly]

[ QUOTE ]
I've only put 3SB into this pot so far." Get out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on man, you know this is irrelavent. Pot size is what matters here, not how much i've put in. Does this change things for you?

[einbert]

I fold the turn.

[thesharpie]

Fold the turn. You could be drawing dead, and even if you're not your /images/graemlins/heart.gif outs are likely dutty.

I would fold the flop if you didn't have the BDSD.

[morberg]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the turn. You could be drawing dead, and even if you're not your /images/graemlins/heart.gif outs are likely dutty.

I would fold the flop if you didn't have the BDSD.

[/ QUOTE ]

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]


I would fold the flop if you didn't have the BDSD.

[/ QUOTE ]

At 15:1, I will call with 2 overs easily without a BDSD

[Isura]

Given your reasoning, I would fold the turn. Drawing to top pair does not have great implied odds on the river, and more likely your top pair makes an expensive second best hand.

[FishHooks]

Yea call the flop, 1.5 outs for each over and then 1.5 outs for you backdoor straight draw is a total of 4.5 outs which is about a 10% or 1:9 to hit on the turn, you are getting enough implied odds to call this in my opinion. If you were to act after the original better then a raise would proboly be much better play...but then again there are still a lot of players yet to act so i dunno about that, depends on reads of the players.

[big_river]

Is it a raise or fold situation on the flop? If you call, everybody else gets 16+:1 to overcall. Top pair is not likely to hold up against a large field, but it might if you could thin the field a bit.

I think it would be a easy raise if you were first to act after the flop bettor. Does the call after the flop bettor make any difference? I remember reading something in SSHE about picking your spots to overcall very carefully.

[FishHooks]

The more I look at the hand the more I like raising on the flop, you will buy the button first of all, the board is so ragged that your overcards will most likely be good if you hit, and you will buy yourself a free card.

[crownjules]

I like a raise on the flop as well. Your PF raise and additional flop raise will likely get CO and/or Button to fold, possibly buying you the button. A free turn card would be an additional reason for raising.

I'm not sure why you think your overs are only with 1.5 outs each. I would think hitting either would give you the best hand.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Come on man, you know this is irrelavent. Pot size is what matters here, not how much i've put in. Does this change things for you?

[/ QUOTE ]

In this case it does, because if the pot is this big and I've only put that little bit in, there's other players hanging around for some reason. So, I'm already behind and the pot isn't giving me the right odds to continue, I'm out.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure why you think your overs are only with 1.5 outs each. I would think hitting either would give you the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

K/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif improve a flush draw, and any K or Q improve a straight draw. Not to mention that you could be dominated by somebody slow-playing AK or AQ, or reverse-dominated by somebody playing KJ or QJ.

[fire_fly]

So it seems the general consensus was raise the flop in hopes of limiting the field a bit/buying the button and possible free card?

Man, hate to say this, but I never really even considered that. Like everyone said, if the flop bettor was on my right, raise for sure, but when the bet came to me, 3 or 4 others had already called, so I didn't even think to raise to limit the field. Thanks for the help guys. I think with the pot as big as it was, a raise was definately right here. Geez, and all I was thinking was "call or fold." I'm such a putz...

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
So it seems the general consensus was raise the flop in hopes of limiting the field a bit/buying the button and possible free card?

Man, hate to say this, but I never really even considered that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good, because I don't think raising the flop is correct. You mention three reasons above for possibly raising, although:

1) Why do you want to want to put in an extra bet on this flop (risking a three-bet from the SB) in order to try to knock out the CO and Button? It's not like you're cleaning up outs, unless you think either of them coldcalled preflop with a hand like Q7 or K5 and will fold to your raise. In fact, since they both coldcalled PF, I can't imagine them folding any hand that you actually would want them to fold.

2) I don't think that attempting to "buy the button" makes sense here, since you're essentially on an overcard draw that may not even be good if it hits. And why do you care so much on this board if two players are behind you?

3) Trying for a free card is the only reason I would raise the flop, but with such a large field, such a poor flop for our cards, and the possibility that SB might think we are FOS and three-bet, I'll simply peel one off on the flop and see what the turn brings.

[aK13]

I would call the flop, and fold turn UI. Just personally, I tend to go too far with overs and end up losing a BB or two chasing too much, so I've tried to change up my play and tighten up/let go of overs in situations like this.

If you manage to hit your over, I think you should still play conservatively. With so many people in the pot, I think there is a pretty decent chance you're behind something like raggy 2 pair or reverse dominated. I don't think raising if you hit an over and SB bets will do anything but hurt you -- those who are ahead will call and those who are behind will fold.

[FishHooks]

The money that you have put in, is not yours anymore. Dont even consider how much you have invested just look at the size of the pot.