Next 100 SNGs

[Poolgod32]

I recently decided to take a shot at moving all the way up to the 100s. Im starting at the 10s to see if i can make the necessary bankroll at each step. I just started my 2nd batch of 100 at the $11 level. First 100 stats
Itm 44% ROI 30%
After playing my first 17 of the next set, Im ITM 47% of the time but ROI of 17%. Where should I be more agressive to improve that ROI and finish higher than 3rd?
I know its a super tiny sample but I think its a trend in my play recently. Any help would be appreciated

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I recently decided to take a shot at moving all the way up to the 100s. Im starting at the 10s to see if i can make the necessary bankroll at each step. I just started my 2nd batch of 100 at the $11 level. First 100 stats
Itm 44% ROI 30%
After playing my first 17 of the next set, Im ITM 47% of the time but ROI of 17%. Where should I be more agressive to improve that ROI and finish higher than 3rd?
I know its a super tiny sample but I think its a trend in my play recently. Any help would be appreciated

[/ QUOTE ]

The most worrisome trend is your tendancy to use the term "ROI" when discussing results for 100 SNGs. That's a giant leak. Using it to describe results for 17 SNGs is... well...


Irieguy

[Poolgod32]

Point taken Irie. What would you suggest I use instead?

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]

The most worrisome trend is your tendancy to use the term "ROI"

[/ QUOTE ]

He invested $1100 and won $1430 for a 30% return on his investment.

Who cares if it was 1 SnG or 1,000,000. He had a 30% ROI.

Is it statistically significant or indicative of future performance? Not necessarily but it's nowhere near wrong to say he had a 30% ROI because it happened with 100% certainty.

[apd138]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The most worrisome trend is your tendancy to use the term "ROI"

[/ QUOTE ]

He invested $1100 and won $1430 for a 30% return on his investment.

Who cares if it was 1 SnG or 1,000,000. He had a 30% ROI.

Is it statistically significant or indicative of future performance? Not necessarily but it's nowhere near wrong to say he had a 30% ROI because it happened with 100% certainty.

[/ QUOTE ] It's not wrong to use a stat thats not statistically significant to analyze your play?

[Poolgod32]

It's not wrong to use a stat thats not statistically significant to analyze your play

Well I wasnt saying it was statistically significant. I was just trying to figure out how to play better. I totally understand that to really know how I play I need a much bigger sample. Im asking how to maximize my results over the next few hundred? Does my trend so far (albeit a small sample) suggest anything to change?

[microbet]

Over 100 SNGs I've had swings from over 70% to not much above 0% and I've only played about 500 SNGs.

No one can really know anything about how you play by your numbers so far.

If you post some hands you will get some feedback though.

[pooh74]

this ongoing ROI battle on these boards is making me....uh...bored.

If OP wants to make his way up to the 100s, thats great...instead of nitpicking about what ROI means, or whether his is accurate or not, why not just play the 10s on up till his BR is 30-40 deep to play the 100s?????!!!! By then, who gives a crap? He has obviously won to get that far and as long as his ROI remains + on the way up (which it would have to build that size BR moving up incremently) then i think this question would be moot.

How fast can he expect to achieve this? well...

That depends on your ROI....what was it again?

[Poolgod32]

[ QUOTE ]
Over 100 SNGs I've had swings from over 70% to not much above 0% and I've only played about 500 SNGs.

No one can really know anything about how you play by your numbers so far.

If you post some hands you will get some feedback though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t5)
CO (t2235)
Button (t310)
SB (t1720)
BB (t1605)
Hero (t1165)
MP1 (t960)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t200</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB calls t175, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t450) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t965 (All-In)</font>, SB calls t965.

Turn: (t2380) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2380) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2380

What so you think of this hand?

[TheUsher]

Make a list of all the hands that call the PF raise and you'll see that most of them beat you...

[Losing all]

I think a red T would have been a much better river card.

[Poolgod32]

[ QUOTE ]
Make a list of all the hands that call the PF raise and you'll see that most of them beat you...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the guy had been playing pretty loose. I put him on a small to mid size pair prob about 2/3 of the time in this situation

[midget23]

if there is a way to play this hand worse, i dont know what it is

[Poolgod32]

[ QUOTE ]
if there is a way to play this hand worse, i dont know what it is

[/ QUOTE ]

So what was your play in this situation?

[theredpill5]

Poolgod, he is kind of right. That is probably the worst flop that you could get when holding AK . If he has JJ, QQ, KK, you're screwed. AT, screwed. KJ, screwed, KQ, QJ , yep screwed. (on flop I mean) . Preflop raise is fine. On flop, I bet 200 - 250 to find out where I am. If he calls, check the turn. If he checks the turn, I'm checking the river, too and folding to a big bet on the river and calling a small bet on river. That board is just too scarey.

[Poolgod32]

[ QUOTE ]
Poolgod, he is kind of right. That is probably the worst flop that you could get when holding AK . If he has JJ, QQ, KK, you're screwed. AT, screwed. KJ, screwed, KQ, QJ , yep screwed. (on flop I mean) . Preflop raise is fine. On flop, I bet 200 - 250 to find out where I am. If he calls, check the turn. If he checks the turn, I'm checking the river, too and folding to a big bet on the river and calling a small bet on river. That board is just too scarey.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the analysis. Thats much more meaningful than someone telling me I played it wrong. I agree the board was scarey. Against a different opponent I prob would have slowed down on the flop. Im not arguing that I played it incorrectly.
Thanks thered. We really need a tutorinf forum on here and not a flame the poster forum sometimes. Sheesh

[midget23]

I probably raise 150 preflop but 200 is fine i'm assuming the blinds are at 25/50. I dont like to go all the way to 200 UTG with AK off when its 1/6 of your stack. The flop comes about as bad as it can so i'm looking to bet out 1/2 - 1/3 the pot after he checks it, i'd rather the pot be at 350 instead of 450. but betting 2x the pot on about as terrible a flop as you could get is just hard to justify. if my flop bet gets called i'm then in check/fold mode for the rest of the hand.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The most <font color="red"> worrisome </font> trend is your tendancy to use the term "ROI"

[/ QUOTE ]

it's nowhere near wrong to say he had a 30% ROI because it happened with 100% certainty.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope....it's certainly not 'wrong' to say you have a certain ROI if that is, indeed, what you have. It is simply worrisome that one wants to assign any sort of 'rich' meaning (such as thinking that it is indicative of profitable play) to such a statistic [ QUOTE ]
when discussing results for 100 SNGs.

[/ QUOTE ] -- you left this part out of your quote, tricky tricky!

Yugoslav

[Poolgod32]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The most <font color="red"> worrisome </font> trend is your tendancy to use the term "ROI"

[/ QUOTE ]

it's nowhere near wrong to say he had a 30% ROI because it happened with 100% certainty.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope....it's certainly not 'wrong' to say you have a certain ROI if that is, indeed, what you have. It is simply worrisome that one wants to assign any sort of 'rich' meaning (such as thinking that it is indicative of profitable play) to such a statistic [ QUOTE ]
when discussing results for 100 SNGs.

[/ QUOTE ] -- you left this part out of your quote, tricky tricky!

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess whats tough for me in this discussion is that it is in fact my stats. It is what it is. I mean sometimes it seems like this forum is filled with posters who only want to comment on ones play once they have played thousands of hands or hundreds and hundreds of tournies.
I do have some basic understanding of statistics. I use Aleo's confidence calculator on my SNG results. Even he makes the point that it doesnt become very meaningful until you reach at least 100 SNGs which is what I posted...my results for my first 100.
Others seem to think you have to wait until you have 200 or 500 or 1000. In any case. my results stand on their own and I put them out there for any and all to see. I still have not received much feedback on the question I posed in my original post. Maybe some just feel its too early to comment on it.

[apd138]

[ QUOTE ]
Make a list of all the hands that call the PF raise and you'll see that most of them beat you...

[/ QUOTE ] At a $11 maybe if you have some kinda read otherwise I can't just assume im behind here.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe some just feel its too early to comment on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo.

Trying to give helpful comments based on your statistics here alone is not only a bad idea, but could be quite dangerous for several reasons:

1. You will think that stats after 100 STTs is meaningful and/or indicative of your actual play.
2. The advice very likely will be misguided and has a lowish probability of being accidentally correct while having a high probability of being more or less worthless.
3. When you have bad runs you will either quit poker or worse - start making adjustments that hurt your game and turn you into a much worse player.
4. It may even cause you to post your stats after every 100 STTs...this would clutter the forum *and* encourage posters to attribute meaning to their ridiculously small sample sizes....from a utilitarian standpoint this would be the worst outcome. Unfortunately it is also probably the most likely.

Yugoslav
Edit: I changed my mind, #4 would be the best result from a utilitarian viewpoint.....see why? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[multifast1]

[ QUOTE ]
I recently decided to take a shot at moving all the way up to the 100s. Im starting at the 10s to see if i can make the necessary bankroll at each step. I just started my 2nd batch of 100 at the $11 level. First 100 stats
Itm 44% ROI 30%
After playing my first 17 of the next set, Im ITM 47% of the time but ROI of 17%. Where should I be more agressive to improve that ROI and finish higher than 3rd?
I know its a super tiny sample but I think its a trend in my play recently. Any help would be appreciated

[/ QUOTE ]
For me, the biggest issue is that you're asking for how to improve your results by only posting results. Remember your results are an outcome of your play. You need to improve your play and no one can tell you how to improve your play based on just ITM% and ROI%... even if it's for 1 gazillion tourneys!

Now, perhaps listing how many 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc.. finishes you had might shed some light. For example if you are always either ITM or 9th/10th... then that says something about your play.

I guess what I'm trying to say is if you want specific answers then ask a specific question.

[Poolgod32]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I recently decided to take a shot at moving all the way up to the 100s. Im starting at the 10s to see if i can make the necessary bankroll at each step. I just started my 2nd batch of 100 at the $11 level. First 100 stats
Itm 44% ROI 30%
After playing my first 17 of the next set, Im ITM 47% of the time but ROI of 17%. Where should I be more agressive to improve that ROI and finish higher than 3rd?
I know its a super tiny sample but I think its a trend in my play recently. Any help would be appreciated

[/ QUOTE ]
For me, the biggest issue is that you're asking for how to improve your results by only posting results. Remember your results are an outcome of your play. You need to improve your play and no one can tell you how to improve your play based on just ITM% and ROI%... even if it's for 1 gazillion tourneys!

Now, perhaps listing how many 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc.. finishes you had might shed some light. For example if you are always either ITM or 9th/10th... then that says something about your play.

I guess what I'm trying to say is if you want specific answers then ask a specific question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. Ill post my results so far and you can all decide what they mean (if anything /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

$11 Buy in
# played : 122
1st 18 14.5%
2nd 12 9.84%
3rd 25 20.49%
4th 12 9.84%
5th 13 10.66%
6th 12 9.84%
7th 14 11.48%
8th 6 4.92%
9th 7 5.74%
10th 3 2.46%

ITM 45%
ROI 31%

Any thoughts?

[zaphod]

[ QUOTE ]
I recently decided to take a shot at moving all the way up to the 100s. Im starting at the 10s to see if i can make the necessary bankroll at each step. I just started my 2nd batch of 100 at the $11 level. First 100 stats
Itm 44% ROI 30%
After playing my first 17 of the next set, Im ITM 47% of the time but ROI of 17%. Where should I be more agressive to improve that ROI and finish higher than 3rd?
I know its a super tiny sample but I think its a trend in my play recently. Any help would be appreciated

[/ QUOTE ]

Me and a friend decided to do a few coinflips. I choose heads, and so far i have managed to get 6 heads and 4 tails. I am moderatly happy with my results so far, but feel i can do better. Does anybody have any hints on what i can do to improve?

[raptor517]

ok, someone should give me moderator control so that i can delete any post that says anything about roi. forever, unless you have over a bajillion sngs played.

as for flipping coins, if you are using a quarter, im pretty sure that tails has like a .01% advantage, based purely on the weigh of the head's side. and thats not a joke. 3uo

[LotsOfOuts69]

I decided to play the $109's too, so far my resuts are:

1 SNG played
ITM: 0%
ROI: -100%

My places are as follows:
1: 0
2: 0
3: 0
4: 0
5: 1
6: 0
7: 0
8: 0
9: 0
10: 0

I'm thinking of moving down...

--LoO

[teamdonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, someone should give me moderator control so that i can delete any post that says anything about roi. forever, unless you have over a bajillion sngs played.

[/ QUOTE ]

is there a better way to look at your overall results? if not, am i unable to decide if my results are generally due to luck or skill until i have 500 sngs under my belt?

[Poolgod32]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok, someone should give me moderator control so that i can delete any post that says anything about roi. forever, unless you have over a bajillion sngs played.

[/ QUOTE ]

My question exactly.
is there a better way to look at your overall results? if not, am i unable to decide if my results are generally due to luck or skill until i have 500 sngs under my belt?

[/ QUOTE ]

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, someone should give me moderator control so that i can delete any post that says anything about roi. forever, unless you have over a bajillion sngs played.

as for flipping coins, if you are using a quarter, im pretty sure that tails has like a .01% advantage, based purely on the weigh of the head's side. and thats not a joke. 3uo

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just about to go make a prop bet with some guy over this and flip a coin a bajillion times for a thousand bucks each flip using this new info and take tails every time...then I realised I ONLY HAVE CANADIAN QUARTERS.

OP: post itm results and itm finish distribution, noone can help you with anything else (like roi #s).

[Poolgod32]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok, someone should give me moderator control so that i can delete any post that says anything about roi. forever, unless you have over a bajillion sngs played.

as for flipping coins, if you are using a quarter, im pretty sure that tails has like a .01% advantage, based purely on the weigh of the head's side. and thats not a joke. 3uo

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just about to go make a prop bet with some guy over this and flip a coin a bajillion times for a thousand bucks each flip using this new info and take tails every time...then I realised I ONLY HAVE CANADIAN QUARTERS.

OP: post itm results and itm finish distribution, noone can help you with anything else (like roi #s).

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok here they are again
$11 Buy in
# played : 122
1st 18 14.5%
2nd 12 9.84%
3rd 25 20.49%
4th 12 9.84%
5th 13 10.66%
6th 12 9.84%
7th 14 11.48%
8th 6 4.92%
9th 7 5.74%
10th 3 2.46%

ITM 45%
ROI 31%