30-60 Bellagio Hand: Mandatory Turn Raise or Unnecessary Splashing?

[Jeffage]

I was going through my notes from my last Vegas trip and ran into this hand. Very good 30 game at Bellagio. I have black Aces on the button. Folded to a semi-solid player who open raises in mid-position. Fold to me and I reraise. Tilting crazy asian guy in the small blind 4-bets. This guy is capable of having a wide range of hands here included a suited connector. Of course he could have Ace big, some kinda pair, something like that. Folded back to MP who calls. I 5-bet and both call. $480 pot. Flop is 8-6-4 rainbow. SB bets, MP calls, I raise, SB reraises, MP calls, I call. At this point, I put him on either a big pair, set, straight (57s) or some kinda semi-big draw (say 97s with one of his suit on board). MP I'm guessing has something like JJ or QQ which he can't let go of. Anyway the turn comes an offsuit 3. The SB bets and MP calls again. I raise. SB reraises. Anyone not raise the turn here since it seems pretty obvious I'm going to get reraised and both of my opponents have shown they like their hands? Obviously, I'd like to show this down but I'm way ahead of a big pair, but drawing dead to a straight and to a 2-outer against a set. Of course the player in the middle complicates things...is potentially getting him out worth it?

Anyway, after SB reraised, MP dropped it. The river is a 10. SB bets and I call. Comments? Results later?

PS. No one folds the turn here do they? What if MP had called the two bets?

Thanks,
Jeff

[Victor]

i think, especially given your read (tilty aggro), you played it fine.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

you played it fine. no way are you folding this hand.

[JasonP530]

Think its played well. If you KNOW that tilty will reraise no matter what, then youre getting 4-1 that you are ahead(2 from him and 2 from MP). Thats good enough.

[Paluka]

Folding this hand would make you some sort of SuperRetard.

[Jeffage]

That's about what I figured /images/graemlins/cool.gif What about the turn play?

Jeff

[AviD]

Jeff, I can't see folding this hand...ever...given then description of the players. Turn raise seems good if you can get MP out or even if you can't. If SB fires again on the river I just call. You put raises in on every street and he's still firing, could just be his laggy way or he could have you beat...but I'm not folding.

[Jeffage]

I agree about not folding the hand. It's the turn raise that is somewhat interesting to me b/c even though I have SCREAMED I have a big pair (5-betting before the flop, raising the flop), this guy is still coming. Even if he's an idiot, I doubt he doesn't realize I may have AA. He may play KK or QQ this way but his actions seem to suggest I'm hurting in a big way. Plus I don't know he'll reraise and fold out MP. Just think the turn is an interesting street b/c I trust my instincts and my instincts say raise again...but looking back, I'm not sure if it's worth it b/c if MP has something like JJ, he's only drawing to two outs anyway. I'm pretty sure raising can't really be considered "wrong" however.

Jeff

[AviD]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree about not folding the hand. It's the turn raise that is somewhat interesting to me b/c even though I have SCREAMED I have a big pair (5-betting before the flop, raising the flop), this guy is still coming. Even if he's an idiot, I doubt he doesn't realize I may have AA. He may play KK or QQ this way but his actions seem to suggest I'm hurting in a big way. Plus I don't know he'll reraise and fold out MP. Just think the turn is an interesting street b/c I trust my instincts and my instincts say raise again...but looking back, I'm not sure if it's worth it b/c if MP has something like JJ, he's only drawing to two outs anyway. I'm pretty sure raising can't really be considered "wrong" however.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]


Going based on...
[ QUOTE ]
Tilting crazy asian guy in the small blind 4-bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its an easy raise on any street. I think he would indeed play KK/QQ like this, and he may be completely blinded by the tilt factor and not even be thinking about your hand. Of course he *could* have a monster, but being on tilt depreciates that quite a bit. I'm putting a raise in on either the turn or the river here...and hoping he will 3-bet ala tilt style with something inferior.

Imagine the inverse, you just call down and he shows QQ. Bets lost. You don't know how good your Aces are (and you aren't even questioning it yourself) until you raise the turn and he comes right back at you.

If you aren't concerned with MP drawing out on the board, then there is value in keeping him in and collecting his bets. And if that is the case, and you want to keep MP in, then I raise the river and call a 3-bet at that point. An alternate line with a little more equity in the pot those times you are good. But I think not putting a raise in on one of the bigger streets is a mistake given the description of SB in conjunction with MPs play throughout the hand.

[Clarkmeister]

I don't really like the turn raise.

[AviD]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really like the turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
Clark lay down some wisdom on us, you don't like it...EXCELLENT! Why? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

BTW, you and Ed drink alot of beer together...damn alcoholics.

[ggbman]

i like your line here, hey could easily have jj-kk if he is tilting as you say he is.

[BeerGolfPoker]

[ QUOTE ]
Tilting crazy asian guy in the small blind 4-bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given this description, a turn raise is mandatory. I think the interesting question is actually whether you should 4 bet when it comes back to you and MP has folded. How tilted and crazy is this guy? Would he continue the unbridled aggression and 3 bet the turn with something like 87s or 99? His range of hands that beats you is pretty narrow (88, 66, 57s, 44?), so if he would 3 bet this turn with any overpair along with some other hands it seems like a 4 bet is in order.

[Jeffage]

He is very loose aggressive, but I don't think he is totally blind to what's going on. Even an idiot would see I'm likely to have an overpair and there is no way I'm folding it. Yet he is STILL reraising. I don't think there is any way I can 4-bet the turn here. How would you feel about getting 5-bet?

Jeff

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't really like the turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
Clark lay down some wisdom on us, you don't like it...EXCELLENT! Why? /images/graemlins/smile.gif


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
SB reraised, MP dropped it.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why.

[BeerGolfPoker]

OK Jeff, so he would have slowed down by now with hands such as 87s, 99, and TT? You did underrepresent your hand on the flop a bit by just calling his 3-bet. Yes, you have shown a lot of strength on this hand, but when you have a very LAG player who is tilting they often refuse to believe that their mediocre top pair/medium overpair hand is not best.

If you think he would not play 87s, 99, TT, or worse like this, then calling the 3 bet and river is probably fine. I don't know the exact cutoff point here at which a 4 bet becomes profitable (math guys?). I think it is worth considering, though, because given the board and his range of preflop capping hands, his range of hands that is beating you right now is quite narrow.

[AviD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't really like the turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
Clark lay down some wisdom on us, you don't like it...EXCELLENT! Why? /images/graemlins/smile.gif


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
SB reraised, MP dropped it.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why.

[/ QUOTE ]

K just checking if it was something beyond that, because I didn't see anything beyond that! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[mmcd]

My definition of "tilting crazy" may be somewhat different than yours, but in my experience, these types will 3-bet the turn here with any hand that isn't probably drawing dead. Any pair, any straight draw, any gutshot, etc.

Maybe this particular guy wasn't full-blown crazy tilting, but if he was I would 4-bet him without a second thought.

[Clarkmeister]

The problem is "that" is going to happen a huge % of the time given the action preceding our choice on the turn.

[Jeffage]

On the end, the Sb showed 86s for two pair and the winner. I think the turn analysis of this hand has been interesting and more replies would be appreciated.

Thanks,
Jeff

[tessarji]

I think the factor here is how often you are ahead on the turn, and how often you are way behind or DD.

You are fairly confident that the middle player has almost no outs to your hand - so you are getting 2:1 for every bet you put in, as long as he is calling. This pushes you towards more liberal raising then if you were just headsup vs. an aggressive player who likes his hand.

But if you are way behind or drawing dead, you are getting very small equity on those bets for a overall loss.

Lets go by percentages:

25% - you have the best hand, both players are drawing to five or less outs
30% - you are losing to two pair, you have eight outs (you don't know which eight)
30% - you are almost dead to a set (two outs)
15% - you are totally dead to a straight (no outs)

Your weighted equity per bet on the turn:

- about 2.7:1 x 25%
- about .5:1 x 30%
- about .14:1 x 30%
- 0:1 x 15%

Your total equity for each bet you contribute is .867:1 - in other words, you are losing money with this raise. Even worse if the middle player (correctly) folds a hand with two outs to a re-raise.

Obviously, you should at least call, since a similar calculation applied to the entire pot shows that you are ahead or will draw out enough for a call to be hugely profitable.

If you don't agree with my percentages for your hand strength re: the SB, that is okay, put in your own numbers. I still think you will have a difficult time making it appear to be a +EV raise.

So: call on the turn, call on the river. (unless it is A)

Edit: numbers were wonky, fixed.

[andyfox]

You 5-bet pre-flop and yet sb bet out on the flop. You raised that bet and he 3-bet. And then he bets out on the turn. You've practically turned your pocket aces face up and he's still coming at you. I'd have to think one pair no good. I would have called the turn and crying called the river.

[Jeffage]

This is what I was thinking too. I feel I raised the turn out of reflex and didn't totally think through the preceeding action (and the fact that the MP guy, assuming he had some pocket pair, was little threat to me if I was ahead).

Jeff