55 - no set - a RAISE on the river??? [Archive]

View Full Version : 55 - no set - a RAISE on the river???

badonkadonk

03-31-2005, 06:15 AM

this hand was when my balls went to the wall, or maybe my stupidity. what do you think?

Golden Palace 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, Hero calls, MP1 raises, folded to BB, BB calls, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls, MP1 caps, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls

 questionable preflop call, and another questionable call when it was 3-bet. my implied odds are fairly decent here. everyone is at least calling the 3-bet which means I have to call 2 to win 9 (.2222) and if it is capped I am essentially calling 3 to win 13 (.230) My chance of flopping a set is roughly .153 and with the implied odds of cracking a higher pair I think this is correct, if not extremely close EV-wise.

Flop: (17 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks.

 well i'm done with the hand but these guys seem to want to check it through

Turn: (8.5 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks.

 sweet. i still don't have the best hand though. 

River: (8.5 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises.....


i am 90% sure i don't have the best hand here. however i am also 90% sure none of these guys have a jack, a queen, or AA or KK, all of which would almost surely call my raise.

I think calling is the worst option here. UTG and MP1 could easily have a pocket pair 66-TT. Can I get them to fold with a raise? I think I have a good chance. The pot is already large and I only need to be right about 1 in 5 times. 

What do you think?

ThePenguin

03-31-2005, 06:28 AM

I think... no. I think your're better than 90% of the time and raising is just spewing. I don't think anyone is going to give you credit for a Q, and if the dude bets, he's going to call your raise. I prefer a call unless you are positive UTG must have a higher PP, in which case you should fold.

crunchy1

03-31-2005, 09:37 AM

Be thankful that you got to see all 5 cards after calling 4 bets PF. Then Fold - No better hand is folding in this spot.

chief444

03-31-2005, 09:50 AM

I think you should bet the turn. As it played out I think you should call the river.

Why after the flop and turn checking through would you not think your hand is good?

einbert

03-31-2005, 09:53 AM

Hell I would have bet the flop.

But if for some reason I checked the flop I would bet the turn.

But if for some reason I checked twice when I meant to bet I would call this river. Raising really has no advantage over calling in this situation IMO. I think there's a really good chance you have the best hand though.

crunchy1

03-31-2005, 10:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should bet the turn. As it played out I think you should call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you folding on the turn to a raise? Even if, I'm still not sure I agree with this line. A turn bet, IMO, would be a bet for information. After the PF action, I think you clearly have plenty of information with which to play the rest of the hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Why after the flop and turn checking through would you not think your hand is good?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm having a hard time figuring how several posters think we are good on this river. Given the preflop action - thinking we're good would seem to assume that all 3 other players must be holding hands like AK, AT, KT or 44-22. There are no reads so how are we putting all three of these players on exactly this small range of hands that we beat?

UTG limp-3-bet and MP1 was good enough to raise 2 limpers and then put in the cap after a limp-3-bettor. IMO, this really puts us in a pickle on the river. What if MP1 decides to wake up again and raise of 3-bet (depending on whether Hero raises or calls)?

einbert

03-31-2005, 10:20 AM

The reason I think it's so important to fire in this huge pot is that if we are best we really need to do our best to protect our hand. And higher pocket pairs just might fold, something that would really give us a lot of money.

If I get raised on the turn I'm folding quickly.

chief444

03-31-2005, 10:24 AM

I would fold if raised on the turn.

But what do you put them on that they play this way? AK seems pretty damn likely for one if not both to me. AA, KK, any Q, any J are unlikely to play this way right? Who knows for UTG. I see players limp reraise with all kinds of idiotic holdings. I think 55 looks pretty good here.

einbert

03-31-2005, 10:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I see players limp reraise with all kinds of idiotic holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

crunchy1

03-31-2005, 11:55 AM

I just don't see that we're good with essentially bottom pair more 1 time in 10 with 2 players (including a PF aggressor) left to act behind us. We'll have to agree to disagree then - which is fine.

BTW - If you call the river and are raised - are you folding then?

einbert

03-31-2005, 11:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I just don't see that we're good with essentially bottom pair more 1 time in 10 with 2 players (including a PF aggressor) left to act behind us. We'll have to agree to disagree then - which is fine.

BTW - If you call the river and are raised - are you folding then?

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you weren't asking me but I am, definitely.

People don't bluff a river bettor and a river caller, it just doesn't happen.

chief444

03-31-2005, 11:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
BTW - If you call the river and are raised - are you folding then?

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure.

badonkadonk

03-31-2005, 02:54 PM

MP1 thought for a bit and folded. BB folded.
UTG thought until his time was out then called.

I showed my 55. he decided to show his AK (horrible call by him). MP1 writes 'arghhhhhhhh! i had 99'

i definitely don't think either of those guys played the hand right. i guess i probably didn't either but it worked out. how often this kind of play will work out is the question

chief444

03-31-2005, 03:01 PM

I find it hard to believe someone who caps preflop with 99 doesn't bet the turn after being checked to twice. That's just bad. Real bad.