Went to showdown thread redux

[tolbiny]

not long ago somone posted ans asked about WTSD numbers- i don't seem to be able to dig up the thread, but i read most of it and it seemed to be quite a long way from a conclusion, so i though i would start it again. This time perhaps with Aggression numbers in there as they can be a factor in how often you see the river.
About 10,000 hands ago i made serious changes in my play, mostly pumping my aggression numbers post flop, here they are. I have been running really well during that time, so my numbers might be a little inflated.


My Went to showdown is 39.72,
W$@SD 53.78
aggression
flop 3.19
turn 2.17
river 1.51

my preflop stats are 23.47 and 15.70

[tolbiny]

NT

[Rico Suave]

Tolbiny:

[ QUOTE ]
My Went to showdown is 39.72,


[/ QUOTE ]

I know others have posted very high went to SD #s, but it is hard for me to understand how it can be that high. I am at around 31%, which is probably to low, but to have a WtoSD of 39%+ seems almost out of reach. I would have to totally retool my game to get anywhere close to that---which may not be a bad thing.

--Rico

[tolbiny]

I am not saying mine is optimal, that is why i want to look deeper, especially as i know mine is quite high for 2+2ers.

But consider the ramifications of how aggressiv eyour play is- some would think that the higher your aggression the less you would go to SD- i am finding the opposite, for three reasons i believe.

1. Bigger pots mean more call downs.
2. More betting/raising often leaves me with position so i can check behind on the river, and more players employ a check/call approach to playing me.
3. more betting means players trust me less and will call down with less.

I have to believe that a WTSD optimal rate has to be higher than 31%- just for the fact that you win whole pots instead of saving individual bets, but also because players take fewer shots at you on the river. 40% might be to high, but lets try to see.

Also i have been rinning good these past 10,000 hands- 6.6 bb/100 or so, and that might be skewing the results, although my wtsd was only slighlty lower my first 25,000 hands.

[MAxx]

well... i dont really see much here of substance.

congrats on running extremely hot ( I am sure you played well too, it is just unlikely that +2 to 4 BB/100 of the 6BB/100 could have anything to with great play).

as for your increase in aggression, that is good too. the thing is, is it going to go down when you arent running hot?

[ QUOTE ]
But consider the ramifications of how aggressiv eyour play is- some would think that the higher your aggression the less you would go to SD- i am finding the opposite, for three reasons i believe.

1. Bigger pots mean more call downs.
2. More betting/raising often leaves me with position so i can check behind on the river, and more players employ a check/call approach to playing me.
3. more betting means players trust me less and will call down with less.


[/ QUOTE ]

Your aggression factor over this 10K hand stretch is not unusually high. Tons of us have that high or higher even when we are not running hot.

I don't really think you have much basis to support your thoughts as of yet.

[tolbiny]

"I don't really think you have much basis to support your thoughts as of yet."

Your are right, thats why i want this discussion before i cool down- so i can try to figure out how i need to be adjusting my play as it happens- instead of looking back 20,000 hands from now.

"the thing is, is it going to go down when you arent running hot?"

I really don't know- i was playing poorly my first 25,000 hands- to passive, same showdown %'s but with agreession that was 2/3rds or lower on some streets. REally struggling with the transition from full live to online short. I also feel that i ran cold for most of that stretch (a lot was due to poor play, but still a good chunk was just varience) so i don't know how this whole thing will play out.

"Tons of us have that high or higher even when we are not running hot."

I didn't realize that it was common for aggression to be so much higher. Prior to 5-10 sh Victor was the most aggressive winning player i knew, and when i leapfrogged him in the aggression dept it may have deluded me into thinking i was at an abnormally high range.

[MAxx]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1978872&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&vc=1

look at v's flop turn and river aggression factors again.

He is far more aggressive. Not that this really matters, your aggression factor is much healthier now than it sounds like it was before.

[tolbiny]

This was a case of my memory decieving me- the stats i was thinking about came from B's initial foray into Sh play- they kind of stuck in my minds as a benchmark.

Jesus- i feel like i am betting the [censored] out of this (when compared to my earlier play)- i am not going to stress about getting it higher- just to keep adjusting my play.

Hmmm- now that i look at it again i see he has a WSD of 35.52%- so if i i am calling more (presumably to get ot a higher sd%) then that will be deflating my relative aggression stats.

Mostly i just want to get a feel for where people's numbers are to give me a ballpark. Something about my personality doesn't like to be on the edge in these situations.