This would be a real bad callin, right? AKo against LRR

[GrunchCan]

Pretty early in 100+9 MTT.

I have about an average stack.

Villan is pretty bad, and has me outchipped by about 10%. Very loose, pretty ABC passive. But does try to run stupid bluffs at the wrong time.

Converter didnt really work.

I had AKo on the BB. Weak-loose player limps, villan limps, button limps, SB completes, I make a pot-sized raise. As expected everyone folds, except the villan who pushes.

The LRR is very suspicious, and I really don't think he has a premium PP. Its either a junk suited connector or a medium/small PP. The villan is a poor player. I still fold here tho, right?

[Roman]

If you think he is a poor player, and you think he wont do this with a big PP, why would you fold?

[GrunchCan]

Becasue its ends my tourney if he wins the pot.

I figure theres maybe a 30% chance he has 2 lower cards, and a 70% chance he has a smaller PP. This makes me slightly ahead, perhaps 55:45 or so. Its for all my chips, however.

What should I be thinking about here?

[Roman]

winning?

Just join the next one if you lose.

[GrunchCan]

So the effects of variance should not have any effect on my decisions in a tourney?

Note that if this were a cash game and drew the same conclusions about my opponent, I would have called instantly.

[Iconoclastic]

I think a 55:45 edge is good enough. If it was 53:47 on the other hand, now that would be a tough decision.

[Roman]

he already potted it preflop, he is getting pretty good odds, I wouldnt pass any edge here.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a 55:45 edge is good enough. If it was 53:47 on the other hand, now that would be a tough decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

I got the sarcasm, and its cool. But I don't get the message that your'e trying to get accross. Are you suggesting that this is an elementary hand? That variance should not be a factor in any NL MTT decision?

[Roman]

If variance is an issue for you, play lower buyins.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
If variance is an issue for you, play lower buyins.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its not an issue for me in that I'm afraid of action. I'm just trying to figure out how to give myself the best chance to win. It is counterintuitive to me that betting the whole stack with a very thin edge gives me the best chance to win.

[Iconoclastic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a 55:45 edge is good enough. If it was 53:47 on the other hand, now that would be a tough decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

I got the sarcasm, and its cool. But I don't get the message that your'e trying to get accross. Are you suggesting that this is an elementary hand? That variance should not be a factor in any NL MTT decision?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the issue here is how early you should take variance into account. I think it's still too early in the tournament for chip EV to be a consideration. If this was the final table and you were a big stack against another big stack and the rest of the table were poor players, then you can throw away a bigger edge. At this relatively early point in the tournament variance shouldn't be a consideration.

I wasn't being sarcastic at all actually. I don't spend enough time on 2+2. But I was genuinely wondering how small the edge has to be for me to throw away, considering that there are two factors in that decision- how much better am I playing than all the other players and chip EV.

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
The LRR is very suspicious, and I really don't think he has a premium PP. Its either a junk suited connector or a medium/small PP. The villan is a poor player. I still fold here tho, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh? Given that read of such a wide range of hands, it's a clear call regardless of the pot odds. But usually, you need to consider the pot odds in making your decision.

[ QUOTE ]
I figure theres maybe a 30% chance he has 2 lower cards, and a 70% chance he has a smaller PP. This makes me slightly ahead, perhaps 55:45 or so. Its for all my chips, however.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming your read is right:

Against 2 lower cards- about 3-2 fav. So 30% of the time, you win about 60% of the time= 18%

Against a smaller pp- 70% of the time you win about 45% of the time= 31.5

So you will win the hand about 49.5% of the time. Compare this to the pot odds, and see if it's a call.

However, I think you will also be against worse aces quite often, so you will win more than 50% of the time overall.

I'm tired, so math may be completely wrong.

It isn't necessary to do those calculations at the table in this situation. If getting 2-1 pot odds on the allin, it's a call. If getting less, then a general way of figuring out whether to call is to consider how many hands he makes this move with that you bury (i.e. dominated aces). If he is just as likely buried by you than you are by him, call regardless of odds. If he doesn't make this move with AQ, fold unless getting close to 2-1. Here, your read says he makes this play with a lot of hands, dominated aces and worse. So you are likely a 5-2 fav, or 3-2 fav, and when your not, you're likely even money. Excellent situation. It's a call regardless of pot odds.

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
I got the sarcasm, and its cool. But I don't get the message that your'e trying to get accross. Are you suggesting that this is an elementary hand? That variance should not be a factor in any NL MTT decision?

[/ QUOTE ]

The only times I would recommend you not calling off all your chips on a close gamble would be near the big money. Possible just near the normal bubble also. But that's close gambles, not good gambles. This is a good gamble.

[GrunchCan]

Ok, thanks to everyone. I've got a few things to think about now.

[GrunchCan]

Oh and by the way, as I said I found the limp-reraise very suspicious. In my experience (primarily 2/4 and 3/6 LHE), a LRR means a crap hand like 76o 2/3 of the time, and AA or KK 1/3 of the time. The worse the opponent, the more likely it is 76o than AA or KK.

Is this true in NL MTTs also?

[Potowame]

Depending on villians position , I have been shown a lot of crap here. most times its a Weak A or someting like KQ, trying to isolate your obvious small pair /images/graemlins/grin.gif. That of course would apply to this type of player you where up against.

You hardly ever see the limp reraise, from the second open limper as a powerful hand.

[davidross]

Grunch, I don't like calling with AK or JJ either, but I also don't like passing up excellent chances to double up. Lets assume there is around 160 in the pot when he pushes (4x20 plus your raise of 80), you have to call around 900 to win 1100. I'd say the chances of his having AA or KK are about nil, and the chances of his having Ax are pretty good. I would call here unless I really had a bad feeling about it. If you think you have a huge edge over the rest of the field then wait. Sounsds like this guy will give all his chips to someone soon, maybe it'll be you.

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
Sounsds like this guy will give all his chips to someone soon, maybe it'll be you.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's reasonably likely to be in there with a worse ace, it sounds like he's trying to give you all his chips right now. I'm not sure I wait for a second chance.