ROI on blackjack tournaments

[TStoneMBD]

i believe that this has been asked several times, but i dont think anyone has given an appropriate response.

now i know very little about blackjack in comparison to many of you guys out there, so bear with me.

lets assume that you are playing in the million dollar blackjack tournament, under that structure.

you are the best tournament blackjack player in the world.

everyone in the tournament is of skill level normal to what you would expect ever year.

what would your ROI% be for entering?



if the details are a little sketchy because its difficult to estimate the skill level of each player, lets then assume that each player is playing perfect basic strategy, but isnt counting and doesnt know anything about betting strategies. what would your ROI be under these pretenses?

how about if everyone in the tournament was playing perfect strategy, was a card counter that would normally produce a 1% edge against the house in cash games, but none of them know about betting strategies. what would your ROI now look like?

[neotope]

What is the entry fee for this tournament?

How many players are in this tournament?

[charlie_t_jr]

[ QUOTE ]
how about if everyone in the tournament was playing perfect strategy, was a card counter that would normally produce a 1% edge against the house in cash games, but none of them know about betting strategies. what would your ROI now look like?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know much about tournaments, but from what I've read from tourney players, counting doesn't come into play much. You have to remember, in a tounrnament setting you're playing against the other players. At times you'll actually be rooting for the dealer. And your decisions(playing & betting) will primarily be reactions to the other players, as opposed to the count.

[Iceman]

A typical blackjack tournament has 5-6 players per table, and 30-hand rounds, and each table has a rotating button that gets to bet last. Under a common structure, in the first round two players per table advance to the second round, and in the second round only table winners advance to the final table. Given how short the rounds are, the high short-term variance in blackjack, and the fact that only 1-2 players advance per table, the 1-2% difference between an expert counter and a basic strategy player becomes insignificant when compared to knowing how to size your bets and how to use position. Strong tournament players can have a huge advantage in these events, and it has nothing to do with counting. Many novice players are virtually dead money, and will knock themselves out by overbetting their bankroll early in the first round.

[TStoneMBD]

i understand that counting is relatively unimportant and that betting strategies are what counts, that is why i asked you guys to compare what the ROI would be for a person who can use proper betting strategies, against a field who can count cards but doesnt know how to bet. you say that the advantage of this person is great, but how great? noone has dared tempted to give me a range. 20% ROI? 80%?

[Terry]

I can’t put a firm number on it, but if there are no teams in the tournament it is very significant. You see players all the time who make bets on the last hand or two of a round that guarantee they cannot win. I wouldn’t be afraid to say typically 50% of the entrants are “dead money” – but I think 90% is really a closer number.

If there are teams playing, and there probably are, your chances are pretty dismal as the team players make bets that lock you out. You meet the same people over and over again at the final tables. Lots of them belong to a team.

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
i understand that counting is relatively unimportant and that betting strategies are what counts, that is why i asked you guys to compare what the ROI would be for a person who can use proper betting strategies, against a field who can count cards but doesnt know how to bet. you say that the advantage of this person is great, but how great? noone has dared tempted to give me a range. 20% ROI? 80%?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's impossible to even really estimate an ROI without knowing the specific tournament structure and how strong the field is. I think an ROI better than 100% is possible under the right conditions, while in certain tournaments the rake is so high and the luck factor from the structure is so high that it's not possible for even the best players to have positive EV. As an example of the former, I know someone who won a 41-person blackjack tournament recently, and half of her first round table went out in the first few hands.

Someone who is a world-class counter but has no idea about blackjack tournament strategy would have little chance. The chance of a strongly positive count happening in 30 hands that would give them a large edge is very small, and even if they found it, the tournament bankroll is much too small to exploit it properly. You have T2000 in chips, your table leaders have T4500, T4100, and T3300, and you've identified a +4 true count with five hands left in the round. Now what?

[tubalkain]

Does the button also play his hand last?

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
Does the button also play his hand last?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.