Reviewing another poster's hands... hand 1

[tolbiny]

All- i am reviewing another posters hands, and will probably be posting a half dozen or so i disagree with, with my thoughts at the bottom- here's a simple one to start with.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Button folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (5.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

Personally i fold to the flop raise.

[rory]

i fold preflop

[tolbiny]

I have no problem completeing in the sb with 98o and similar hands, especially if i feel i can often take down ragged pots with a single bet. However when i am facing a raise with only a backdoor straight and two undercards, i am gone.

[JMP300z]

depends on the player /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Opponent could have a flush draw...

In general id rather check raise this flop vs the button steal or lead the turn when it gets checked around rather than just open fire like that.

I find a fold on the flop when i get raised there though sans some read of him overusing the freecard play but even then youre still probably way behind in the hand.

[PassiveCaller]

fold the flop.

[DrGutshot]

fold the flop

-DrG

[imported_CaseClosed326]

I think the flop bet is pretty bad IMO. I don't see the point, it is very doubtful that you take down the pot there. I would just check, fold when they bet.

[tolbiny]

"think the flop bet is pretty bad IMO"

You should be betting out on raggady flops (don't get to much raggedier than this one) pretty often from the blinds. If not you are missing out on some +ev.

[imported_CaseClosed326]

Alright, makes sense. You're pretty much saying take a stab at a ragged flop from the blinds and fold is you get raised?

[tolbiny]

yes- its good to do it with a 9 T or J on board (one of the three) so that it is difficult for an opponent to have 2 overcards.

[aflaba]

probably fold the flop.

If the hero would have made a pair on the turn, how big do you think the chance(%) of that hand being best at the moment would be?

Maybe hero overvalued this chance. What do you think that percentage would have to be for heros call to be profitable? I would guess around 70%.

What it is in reality against the avarage joe I don't know though. But my random guess is that hero would be good with a pair more than 50% of the time

[tolbiny]

you have 6 outs to pair on the turn- for 6/47 cards- or around 13%- even if you are 70% to win when you pair you are now winning 0.13*0.70 % of the time for a 0.10% chance or 1/10 (close enough estimates). You are only getting 6-1 from the pot- not to mention you don't have a strong enough hand with a pair to bet out or to check raise so you will end up often only winning one BB when ahead and losing 2 when behind. Plus he will almost always have a redraw against you- it is a very -ev play EVEN when your pair is good 70% of the time.

As i said in a differnt post- it is good to take shots at "orphan" pots like this as long as the board is not to drawy and there aren't many playing zone cards for the butotn to have hit. (common limping hands from the button are 56-JT or Axo) You just can't do it if you are frequently going to get raised as folding is nearly always correct then. But if they will let you pick up these pots from time to time.

[TMFS9]

I would much rather trying to pick up a pot on K 4 2 board versus a J or T 4 2 board.

[tolbiny]

I think both boards can be good- it depends a lot on the buttons tendancies. My favorite button limpers are those who call the flop bet with one overcard and then fold on the turn when they miss it. It takes some time to find out who they are, but they are basically giving you a free 3$ each time they do it.

[bunky9590]

can I hear a check fold on the flop???????

Completing the Sb there is easy as pie. Im not putting another $ in the pot after that on that board though.

[MAxx]

i would probably fold pf as well.

we do have to lead at these flops some... so that is definitley understandable.

once i get raised here on the flop with nuthin, i am done.