Strategy Question

20-40 stud game. I have J9J(all different suits) in 3rd position. A Queen and then an Ace both limped (there is one ace out, no Q's, J's, or 9's out). All fold to queen who calls but ace reraises. What should I do?

Below are the reasons for each possible play:

1) Call: There is over $100 already in the pot. If the queen calls (likely) there will be $149 (including my extra 20). I have live cards and I can just see what happens.

2) Fold: Most likely I am beat, and maybe in two spots. Why play from behind?

3) Raise: I might be able to get the hand heads up with a raise. I might even have the best hand because the ace could have been playing suited and raised from behind to represent aces with a live suit. A raise may even knock out a pair of queens in this spot. In any event, the combination of the chance of knocking 3rd player out along with the (remote) chance I am best warrants a raise here. As long as Q is not rolled up, I have a good shot in this hand so I might as well put on the pressure and raise, since I'm likely to play this one until the end anyway.

I won't say what I did but I am most interested in all responses and opinions.

PS: The players involved all seemed reasonable but I didn't have a great read on them yet as I was new to the table.

[CJC]

"20-40 stud game. I have J9J(all different suits) in 3rd position. A Queen and then an Ace both limped (there is one ace out, no Q's, J's, or 9's out). All fold to queen who calls but ace reraises. What should I do?"

I am really confused by the description of the action here.
Ace re-raises? Who completed the bet the first time? The intial description of the action is very important in answering your question.

All I can say at this point is that if you can get it heads-up against a dead ace it might be worth playing. If not, it is an easy dump. You are at a disadvantage as you were new to the game and don't have a read on your opponents.

CJ

CJC: By "raise" I mean complete. Low brought in for $5, Q called, Ace called right behind him. I raised to $20 (completed). All folded to Q who called and Ace reraised.

While I was not expert as to the way these two played, they did seem like "regular" players. Additionally, I brought this hand up because I think this kind of hand is quite routine, so answer as if the other players were break-even types or small losers. Not pros or suckers.

I can say that folding was never an option in my opinion because there was too good of a chance that I had the best hand and the pot odds were good as well to take a few cards off. Ace would always have to lead and I could try to leverage out Q later in the hand if desired.

Some comments as to my read of the hand: I really could not imagine that Q had a pair of queens because it was kind of illogical to call with Queens in first position. I also was suspect of ace having aces, because he did not raise after queen limped in (with an ace out). Therefore, if they were bad enough to call in those spots with the big pairs, they would possibly play if I hit door card jacks on 4th or 5th. Conversely, traditional wisdom told me there was a good shot that I had the best hand. I believe the combination of the above two statements makes this a playing hand. Furthermore, unless I am beat in both spots, I'm not folding even if I knew what the hands were (for example, if I KNEW ace had aces and KNEW Q had 3 suited and would not fold). I would in that case call until 5th and decide then what to do. It would be $40 more to get to 5th for a pot that would be approx. $210 (including my $40).

[CJC]

Hello again,

Unless I am reading something wrong here, you never mentioned that you were the original 'completer' or 'raiser' in your first post. But I have been reading things wrong this week..

Anywhoo...

If your aren't going to fold, then I believe re-raising is your best option forcing the queen to call 2 bets cold. If the queen isn't willing to fold you are in bad shape.

Best of luck..

CJ

[Andy B]

As CJ said, your post is confusing. I am inferring the following:

There is a $3 ante and a $5 bring-in.

There were eight players.

The low card brought it in for $5, a Queen limped, an Ace limped, you completed it (you left that part out), five people folded (any Aces, Queens, Jacks, or Nines among the folded cards?), the Queen called, and the Ace then raised. This gives us a $149 pot if you both call.

This is all stuff you should state explicitly in your post.

Assuming that this is correct, I would probably at least call. The Queen will probably call also, so you're getting over 6:1 on this call. If the Ace might make that play with a big three-flush or something, you're in pretty good shape. If he must have Aces, you're still not in that bad of shape. If he's rolled-up, though, you're sunk.

If a re-raise will get it heads-up, that would be best. Of course, the Queen might not fold, and the Ace might make it four bets. That, I think, would suck more than failing to get the Queen out.

You are correct, I am the one who missed the entire "raise" part in the first email. Sorry.

While I don't love the hand, I don't dislike it no matter what happens, unless I 3 bet and Queen calls and ace caps it, now, I have dug a hole that I can't escape from /forums/images/icons/frown.gif

I did reraise, queen did call but ace did not reraise. Q made open queens and hand was over /forums/images/icons/smile.gif It's still an interesting situation that comes up more than occassionally.

Yes, I left out that I raised. But I did write there were no Q's, J's or 9's but there was one other ace out.

[Andy B]

OK, my bad. You left out all that other stuff, and I was so focused on recreating the hand that when I got around to thinking, "well, how live are these hands," I forgot that you had actually included that piece of information. Given that there is another Ace out, I think that it is highly unlikely that opponent has Aces. I don't know about you, but I would raise right away with dead Aces to get as many people out as possible. And of course the fact that an Ace is out gives him that many fewer combinations to make Aces. I would guess he had a big three-flush. Did you happen to notice how many cards suited to his door card were out? That's more relevant information. Anyway, I think you definitely have a three-bet in this situation. I'm not trying to be much more obnoxious than necessary, but it is important to give as much information as you can about hands you post. There is so much more information available in a stud hand than there is in a hold'em hand, and it's all important. I can't remember every detail of the hands I play, but you should try to remember as much as possible.

[Rich P.]

There are at least two reasons the aces may have raised:

First, he has Aces and sought to trap his opponents having this edge. This sort of thing happens more in hold-em than stud. However, it could happen in stud, especially at the higher limits where opponents are likely to fold if he completes and the game has been pretty tight, meaning he doesn't expect more than one or two opponents and he expects the bet to be completed before it gets back to him. This adds some deception to his play and gets more dead money in the pot. Of course, its riskier, but sometimes opponents will take that risk for the bigger payday and the added deception. He might especially do this with one ace out, because his opponents will be less likely to put him on a pair. This of course makes his play even riskier, but he hopes to to make two pair against one or two opponents. He may rationalize that this investment has positive expectation and is, therefore, worth the risk.

Second, he's on a flush draw. One thing you didn't mention was how many of his suit were out and what suit he was holding. This way he will tie his two opponents to the pot if he hits the fourth club, and will dump the hand if he doesn't. Of course, he would prefer more than two opponents to make this play profitable, and he will have to lead out on the next round to continue the deception in the hope of getting a free card somewhere along the line. Since he's out of position, having an Ace, this play is problematic.

Of course, he could have other hands, such as a pocket pair, perhaps Kings, and an Ace kicker. Pocket Kings would play similarly to Aces, but any other pair with an Ace kicker would not be too good since another ace is out. It is, however, possible, since players sometimes take relative longshots. With a medium to small pair ace kicker, betting out of fourth street, or waiting until fifth street, would be better than reraising on third street, because you may raise his fourth street bet to knock out the queen, or a double size bet on fifth street, assuming you give a free card on fourth due to the fear of a re-raise, would also more likely knock a player or two out.

Three high cards is also a possibility, but it is so marginal for this situation that it is unlikely.

Therefore, I believe that a pair a Aces or Kings is the most likely hand, followed by a flush draw. I recognize that that was not your read, and I always suggest that you trust your read; but it is my read, so what should you have done?

You should of course trust your read, but don't assume that he doesn't have aces just because there was another ace out. Also, you can't beat his kicker. Additionally, the queen makes your hand even riskier, because even if he doesn't have queens now, he could hit.

Now you completed with your pair of jacks just as you had to. It's difficult to fold that hand just because two overcards called the bring-in. If you were to play, you had to complete. Now the raise forces you to consider the size of the pot and whether you want to call or reraise to see fourth street. You can't commit yourself to the river at this point, because you don't know what cards are going to fall.

If you re-raise and get capped, you have to think Aces. You don't read this guy as a maniac or stupid enough to cap with a draw. Folding is a valid option considering that he likely has aces and you can't outkick that.

Well, I could go on and on, but I think folding is an option, especially if you think, as I do, that he has aces. Even though the ace is dead, your playing primarily for two pair. Your taking the worst of it.

But, if you decide to play, reraise. If the Queen calls and the Ace caps, the pots is too big to fold, and you should probably see fifth street before folding.

You are correct again, but I don't recall exactly how many of his suit was out. It wasn't enough to be noticeable.
Yes, all the info is relevant and I agree that I would have raised immediately if I had the aces or the queens which was why I did 3 bet it.

Good analysis. It's not "trusting" my read that is the issue, I think it's the combination of good pot odds IF he has aces ALONG with the possibility that he doesn't have aces. I don't have to commit to one read or the other, I can place a probability distribution on it.

For example, if I was a money dog should he have aces but a favorite should he have suited, the combination may make it worth playing (I didn't run the numbers). In this case, with a large pot coming up, I think playing has a large long run EV advantage.

Thanks for the insightful comments.