Where I lose money?

[J_V]

I am going to try this again, because I want some advice.

I have J-10o in the small blind, and complete. Six of us take the flop.


Flop is K-K-10......not 10-10-K.

I bet, Ep calls. Turn is a blank. I bet, and am raised.

I fold.

What should be my default play in this situation?

[Pot-A]

If EP is a rank amateur, he'll probably raise you on the flop if he has a king. The average player will just call and raise you on the turn as he has done. Unfortunately, your bet on the flop complicates things because your opponent has put you on the correct hand if he has any experience. So if he's capable of bluffing at all this is the place he'll do it.

On the other hand there are only 10 small bets in the pot and you'll probably have to put another 4 in to see his cards. I think the pot probably isn't big enough unless you play very predictably in this situation (i.e. you would certainly slow-play the king) and your opponents have picked up on that fact.

I will often check a flop like this since it's such an obvious time to slow-play a king. Then check-raise the turn - if he comes back over you he probably has the king. Otherwise he'll probably muck his hand if he's capably of folding at all. Notice at most you put the same number of bets in as your play above (assuming you call), but your play much more likely to elicit a fold if he has your hand with a better kicker.

[skp]

I don't know that there is a default play in this situation...it's..er...wholly situational. In this hand, for example, you have 6 people taking a flop. Thus, betting out is a double-edged sword. On the hand, you have 5 opponents any one of whom could have a King which makes the bet dicey. Plus, you may be called with all kinds of draws and you will not really know where you stand when you go into the turn. On the other hand, you are likely going to be given credit for a King precisely because you are betting into 5 guys who have not yet acted.

In any event, the flop bet leaves us heads-up. Now on the turn, our options are checkfold, checkraise, checkcall, bet. I can imagine situations where I might employ each of those tactics. Admittedly, checkraising would be the least used tactic. I don't think that betting out serves any purpose in avoiding giving a free card - which is the reason that most guys bet here. This is because even if the guy has QJ, 77 or whatever he may have called with that you beat, he will probably bet it for you when you check. So, the real purpose of betting is to save yourself one bet (as opposed to checkcalling twice) when you can be reasonably sure that if he raises, he has a King.

So, against a straight-forward player, bet and fold to a raise would be the default (I would point out that from a bayesian analysis, EP has 3 ways to have QJs, 2 ways to have KQs, 1 or 2 ways to have KJs and 4 ways to have KTs. So, a raise more likely signifies a King as opposed to QJs from a Bayesian analysis. It is also more likely from a common sense viewpoint i.e. guys are more likely to raise with Trip Kings than with a semibluff move on a straight draw). If he is really straight-forward, you could even checkfold i.e. he is the type who would check with QJ or 77 and take the freebie but bet with a King.

Against the tricky player, checkcalling can't be all that worse than bet/folding given that he may be raising you off the best hand.

Of course, image considerations and level 2 and 3 thinking pervade over these decisions.

All of that probably offers not one iota of help but FWIW....

[J_V]

Hey SKP,

I got a kick out of your response to my first post. "What happened to JV, and who stole his computer!" LOL. Believe, me if I get a ticket to the river, I take it. Nothing makes me happier than a ticket to the river, well maybe a ticket to the river for two.

I guess you're saying that it's too situational for a default play. Can I just check-fold the flop? I figured there's just too much money in the pot, not to make some half assed effort at trying to win that money. I feel like if it wasn't online, I could just ask the guy what the kicker is on his king and get enough of a response out of him to figure out what to do. Oh well, if the guy's gonna semi-bluff his pot, he wins. I don't have a better answer than that.

Another question.....why is that when I play at paradise (two days, maybe 12 hours) I see two nut full houses over quads, when I haven't seen that all year at party poker (probably 1000 hours) ? Oh, coincidence......yeah.

Thanks for the help SKP.

[angry young man]

I was just about to post exactly this sort of question; so I'm glad you lent your prestige to the post, thus garnering more responses. I'm still not certain how to approach the situation but I don't like the idea of check/folding the flop, feels like I'm giving away too much.

How do you think the problem changes if you've got JT and the flop comes : J77 ?

Another answer: Well you know online you get so many more hands and play multiple tables at the same time so.....I can't even finish typing that crap. 8 hours of stud play at Paradise, had quads 4 times, lost to them twice. 275 hours of live casino stud play, had quads 5 times, can't remember how often I lost to them but whatever.