somapopper
03-30-2005, 04:06 PM
I was going to post this in response to a hand in the small stakes forum, but it was such a tangent, I thought it might do better over here.
The hand in question is below:
10/20 live game. No solid reads but the table is LP with 4 or 5 seeing most flops. The 3 to my left are playing almost every hand for one bet and haven’t raised at all with multiple limpers in front. I like my seat.
UTG and UTG2 limp all fold to me 2 off the button. I limp with 98 and as with most pots the CO and button limp and the sb completes.
Flop 5 4K all check to UTG2 and he bets. I raise CO and button call, the rest fold to UTG2 and he calls.
Turn is a 9 and it’s checked to me. I go ahead and bet because I think the CO or button will if I don’t and I’m pretty confident the UTG2 will come alive and reraise if he has TPGK.
CO folds Button and UTG2 call.
River J
UTG2 bets, I……
All comments appreciated and especially on my turn play.
Best of Luck
Gordon Scott
OK, so I wanted to try and take a stab at figuring out the value of raising with the hope of getting a free card vs. simply calling. First, some slightly arbitrary assumptions:
1. a flush will win the hand outright, and we need not worry about it counterfiting on the river or a higher flush.
2. The flop raise will buy us a free card 100% of the time when we miss the flush.
3. We know we won't be 3-bet when we raise on the flop.
4. We assume if we raise on the flop, the original bettor will call and we will also have one cold caller. If we call on the flop, there will be three other callers in addition to the pre-flop raiser for a total of five players to the turn.
I was trying to calculate how many SBs we can expect to win for each SB we put in. I don't think this is remotely right, but this is what I came up with. Basically, I was trying to take the odds of making the flush times how much that'll win us and averaging that with the odds of having to draw to the flush again, and how much that will cost us. Note: even though it's correct to draw to the flush on the turn and the river, it wouldn't be correct to draw to it if we knew we were going to miss the flush on the turn, and that's what the "flop call line" is supposed to represent. Any comments/ direction would be appreciated
free card line- (1/2)((13/2)(1)(9/48)-1) + (1/2)((13/2)(9/47)(39/48)-1)~ .1151 EV/SB or .2301 EV (2SBs)
flop call line- (1/2)((12/1)(1)(9/48)-1) + (1/2)((18/3)(9/47)(39/48)-1)~.5918 EV/SB or 1.7754 EV (3SBs)
Clearly the flop call line is a hell of a lot better, and I think that's to be expected given the restraints I put on the problem, but still I don't think these results can be right.
The hand in question is below:
10/20 live game. No solid reads but the table is LP with 4 or 5 seeing most flops. The 3 to my left are playing almost every hand for one bet and haven’t raised at all with multiple limpers in front. I like my seat.
UTG and UTG2 limp all fold to me 2 off the button. I limp with 98 and as with most pots the CO and button limp and the sb completes.
Flop 5 4K all check to UTG2 and he bets. I raise CO and button call, the rest fold to UTG2 and he calls.
Turn is a 9 and it’s checked to me. I go ahead and bet because I think the CO or button will if I don’t and I’m pretty confident the UTG2 will come alive and reraise if he has TPGK.
CO folds Button and UTG2 call.
River J
UTG2 bets, I……
All comments appreciated and especially on my turn play.
Best of Luck
Gordon Scott
OK, so I wanted to try and take a stab at figuring out the value of raising with the hope of getting a free card vs. simply calling. First, some slightly arbitrary assumptions:
1. a flush will win the hand outright, and we need not worry about it counterfiting on the river or a higher flush.
2. The flop raise will buy us a free card 100% of the time when we miss the flush.
3. We know we won't be 3-bet when we raise on the flop.
4. We assume if we raise on the flop, the original bettor will call and we will also have one cold caller. If we call on the flop, there will be three other callers in addition to the pre-flop raiser for a total of five players to the turn.
I was trying to calculate how many SBs we can expect to win for each SB we put in. I don't think this is remotely right, but this is what I came up with. Basically, I was trying to take the odds of making the flush times how much that'll win us and averaging that with the odds of having to draw to the flush again, and how much that will cost us. Note: even though it's correct to draw to the flush on the turn and the river, it wouldn't be correct to draw to it if we knew we were going to miss the flush on the turn, and that's what the "flop call line" is supposed to represent. Any comments/ direction would be appreciated
free card line- (1/2)((13/2)(1)(9/48)-1) + (1/2)((13/2)(9/47)(39/48)-1)~ .1151 EV/SB or .2301 EV (2SBs)
flop call line- (1/2)((12/1)(1)(9/48)-1) + (1/2)((18/3)(9/47)(39/48)-1)~.5918 EV/SB or 1.7754 EV (3SBs)
Clearly the flop call line is a hell of a lot better, and I think that's to be expected given the restraints I put on the problem, but still I don't think these results can be right.