Probability after 1,000 hands and 2,500 hands for average player

[Wynton]

I'm trying to come up with a better way of deciding whether I want to risk playing at a level outside my br.

Specifically, say that a player thinks that he will be somewhere in the range of -2 to +2 bb per/100 hands (which I assume would include most of us). Now figure he has a br of 100 or 150 bb. I'd like to know what is the likelihood that after 1,000 hands, or perhaps 2,500 hands, he will have:

-lost half his br
-lost 3/4 of his br
-lost his entire br

For purposes of this question, assume that the player is not unusually tight/passive/aggressive/loose, so that his standard deviation is "average."

When answering, please keep in mind that I am a total math IDIOT.

[Paul2432]

Whether you play 1000 or 2500 hands and whether you start with 100 BB or 150 BB makes a large difference in this calculation. I've done some quick and dirty calcs (not fit for reproducing here) and figure the answer to your question is somewhere around 0-35%.

In general the greatest risk is playing 2500 hands with 100 BB. In that case you are probably something like 25-35% to lose half and 10-15% to lose all.

On the other hand if you play only 1000 hands with 150 BB, you something like 5-10% to lose half, and less than 0.5% to lose all.

This assumes you are equally likely to fall anywhere on the range of skill from -2 to +2 BB/100.

Paul

[Wynton]

Thanks, that's just the kind of info I was hoping for.

I consider those numbers are somewhat reassuring, in the event I decide to dangle my feet at a higher level. As a practical matter, I'd probably stop after 1000 hands if things were going badly, so the 2500 hand question may not be that relevant. And understanding that there is only about a 1/3 likelihood that I would lose half the bankroll, the risk might be worth it for me, just to satisfy my curiousity.