River call - good judgement or good luck?

[shefhammer]

This is from a 6-handed $20 tournament which pays $90 for first and $30 for second. My opponent has played solid/tight poker and has only shown down winning hands. This is only the second hand of heads-up. The bubble (3 handed) lasted just 3 hands.

No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (2 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t3513)
Button (t2487)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
Button calls t50, Hero checks.

Flop: (t65) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t200</font>.
Button calls.

Turn: (t600) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t600</font>.
Button calls.

River: (t1800) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks.
Button bets t1587 and is all-in
<font color="#CC3333"> Hero calls t1587. </font>

Final Pot: t4974

Results in white:
<font color="white">
Button shows 10d8d and my queen high holds up.

[draw2aflush]

wow heads up when blinds r at 50/100 everyone was out quick,but response to ur ques.sounds lucky if u won

[theweatherman]

If you wanted his 50 chips, which i dont really think you need that badly, then raise pf otherwise all your doing is maybe betting a lot of your stack into a pot where you have queen high and no draws. I dont see how you could ever see your hand as ahead with two cold calls then a push so I'm inclined to say it was very lucky. IMO i check this down and the fold as soon as he bets.

[shefhammer]

[ QUOTE ]
If you wanted his 50 chips, which i dont really think you need that badly...

[/ QUOTE ]

I was never betting to win 50 chips. My first bet was a pot-sized bet when the pot was 200.

[whynot?]

so unless you had a huge read on this guy - this was an incredibly brave and lucky call. think about it - even if he was bluffing - most of the time you lose when he has k or a - i wouldnt make a habit of this

[Rolen]

Lucky as hell!

Even if he's bluffing you could still easily be losing

[shefhammer]

[ QUOTE ]
even if he was bluffing - most of the time you lose when he has k or a - i wouldnt make a habit of this

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he would have raised with an Ace pre-flop. If he had held a King he'd have made top pair so it wouldn't have been a bluff!

[Rolen]

I'll put it like this : This play means you should either be at the 5+1 SNGs playing like the total fish you are, or it means you should be at the 5000+400 SNGs owning the world like the abseloute genius you are.

[microbet]

He has 25 big blinds and you have more. He called your first bet which was 3x the pot and then a decent sized pot bet. And then he pushed. He could have any pocket pair, any ace, he could split the pot with any Q. For you to win he has to have 2 cards that don't match, aren't a 5 or 7 and are both 10 or under.

In short, I do not like this call.

[shefhammer]

Well since I'm no fish I'll take that as a complement!

[shefhammer]

I screwed up the original post in that there are 200 chips in on the flop not 65. It was a pot-sized bet.

[ QUOTE ]
He could have any pocket pair, any ace, he could split the pot with any Q. For you to win he has to have 2 cards that don't match, aren't a 5 or 7 and are both 10 or under.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any pocket pair would have raised pre-flop. I believe an A would have raised pre-flop. A King, Jack and a 7 would have raised the flop. His flat calls suggested he was drawing all along. The only way I thought I was behind was if he had hit the 5 on the river though why would he push this? Why did he push the river? Either he knew he was good and wanted all my chips or he knew he was beaten and that was the only way he'd win the pot. I suspected the latter.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
Any pocket pair would have raised pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of people would raise with some pocket pairs. Some people would raise with a lot of pocket pairs.

[ QUOTE ]
I believe an A would have raised pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not hardly.

Splitting is not a bad result, but it displaces good results.

[ QUOTE ]
A King, Jack and a 7 would have raised the flop. His flat calls suggested he was drawing all along.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless he was slowplaying something.

[ QUOTE ]
he knew he was beaten and that was the only way he'd win the pot. I suspected the latter.

[/ QUOTE ]

The real problem is he could very well have thought he was bluffing with Ace high or a Jack or a 5 or pocket 2s and end up surprised that he won.

If even one poster agrees with your line, I will be surprised.

[shefhammer]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless he was slowplaying something.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, and I was wary of this, but I feel a moderate bet from him on the river would have been in order if he were slow-playing rather than a gigantic push. It screamed out that he didn't want a call.

[ QUOTE ]
The real problem is he could very well have thought he was bluffing with Ace high or a Jack or a 5 or pocket 2s and end up surprised that he won.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've already stated that he'd have raised with a J on the flop. Either that or he'd have folded it on the turn. I've bet the pot and he still has no idea if his middle pair is good. Actually his turn call is very significant as it eliminates many of the hands you suggest he could be bluffing with on the river. There's no way he'd have called a 600 bet on the turn with a low pocket pair or an Ace or a 7 then stick his whole stack in on the river. That's just completely bizarre play. If he thinks his hand is good he'll be happy to check the river (though I still think he'd have raised on an earlier street with a K or J). If he knows his hand is good I think he'd have made a moderate river bet. The all-in definitelty looked like a bluff and I thought I was beating most bluffing hands. I think he has played pocket 2s atrociously if that's what he has got. Ax of diamonds has me beat I suppose (though I think he'd have raised with an A preflop as I said). I beat everything else save a 5.

[Rolen]

You seem to be willing to give him credit for being a solid player pre-flop (will raise pp, Ax) but then label him as a total idiot who would call you down with nothing then bluff all his chips away with 10 high, explain?

[shefhammer]

[ QUOTE ]
You seem to be willing to give him credit for being a solid player pre-flop (will raise pp, Ax) but then label him as a total idiot who would call you down with nothing then bluff all his chips away with 10 high, explain?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he is an idiot at all and I labelled him as solid in my original post. His river play is good. The only way he can win the pot is by betting. The pot is larger than his remaining stack so I think he is right to take a shot at it, and I've shown weakness by checking into him. His only mistake was betting so much. If he'd have bet 600 or so I'd have probably folded.