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droolie

03-30-2005, 11:16 AM

Hand 1:
Button is a LAG and I suspect he's steaming right now as since I sat down my stack has doubled and his has been chopped in half. He bluffed me out of a pot early in the evening (he showed?? duh!) but since then I've shown down everything that had a chance against him. Just before this hand somebody typed into the chat "There's a new sherriff in town..."

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
BB checks, Hero ???

Hand 2:
(I know my limping with this hand is suspect at best but what happens next is interesting...)

Villian was aggro preflop but totally passive post flop...

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, Button raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero ???

iluzion

03-30-2005, 11:19 AM

im almost always against slow playing.

hand 1: definitly don't slowplay that flop, they are expecting you to bet it. anyone with an ace is gonna give you action. dont scare them by check-raising or taking off on the turn.

hand 2: slowplay is iffy, but theres a good chance button will bet since its heads up, i call his flop bet and check/raise turn if you think hes aggressive enough, if not i either check/raise his bet on flop or at the least, lead the turn.

KaiShin

03-30-2005, 11:21 AM

Hand 1:
You want to slowplay in a 5-way pot against a LAG Button? No way, bet out.

Hand 2:
This seems like a decent candidate for a slowplay. Heads up, small pot, plus a PFR who will likely fold to sustained aggression. You've got a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, which cuts down a little on flush possibilities. Of course if the flop gets checked through it would really suck. Still, I think I'd take the chance and check here.

davelin

03-30-2005, 11:23 AM

Hand 1 - Betting is the pot-building move, not check-raising.
Hand 2 - Raise pre-flop or fold (but you know that). Passive opponent? Easy bet.

thesharpie

03-30-2005, 11:26 AM

Hand 1 I wouldn't slowplay.

Hand 2 I was thinking about slowplaying but even if villain has a decent raising hand, like pocket 10s, he still might not bet it if he's as passive as you say he is. Plus he's agressive PF so he might raise any hand he's gonna play in this position PF, and the flop could've easily missed him completely.

So fast play both. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Dave G.

03-30-2005, 11:27 AM

Hand 1: Hero bets. You'll get calls or better from any ace, slowplaying here just costs you bets. If it's raised, 3-bet. If the button is steaming and he has an ace, he'll probably go nuts on you here. If the other players missed the flop, they probably aren't going to call any on the turn UI, but they might peel one off on the flop, so take their money now.

Hand 2: If villain is totally passive postflop, then betting out is probably best. You can't check/call then check/raise the turn (which I'd do against a more aggressive player) because you can't rely on him to bet both times. Missing an SB on the flop wouldn't be bad, but you really don't want to miss a BB on the turn.

Marquis

03-30-2005, 11:40 AM

Hand 1:
I go for the bet on the flop, and smooth call a button raise. Assuming MP1 and/or MP2 stick around the BB folds, I lead the turn to trap them.

Hand 2:
I'm surprised that you limped with that hand. I think it's worse than "suspect." Check-raising the turn seems like the best line here.

Post the ensuing action so we can play along.

Marquis

03-30-2005, 11:54 AM

More on hand 2:
The only way we're really gonna make money on this hand is if he has one Ace. Lets assume he has either AK or KK or the equivalent.

If you bet the flop, turn and river when he has AK, he'll probably just call you down because he is passive. Hero makes 2.5 BB. If you bet the flop and he has KK, he might just fold right there. So if he has KK and he calls you down half the time, you make 1.25 BB.

But if you check-call the flop and check-raise the turn when he has AK, I think you make 3.5 BB every time. If he has KK you'll probably commmit him enough times to still make at least 1.5BB, even if he checks the turn behind and calls your river bet.

DMBFan23

03-30-2005, 11:56 AM

Hand 1: you raised preflop, so I think a flop bet will not seem out of line at all. I'm gonna bet and hope an ace raises, then he's gonna get three bet.

Hand 2: I usually check raise the flop in these kinds of spots, but just calling the flop and checkraising the turn might win you more. I'd mix this one up with a strong inclination towards checkraising the flop and playing it pretty fast from there. if three bet on the flop I'm checkraising the turn too.

droolie

03-30-2005, 12:01 PM

Hand 1:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Button raises, BB folds, Hero??

This flop bet was a very easy one. There's absolutely no way I check here after raising pf. It would be criminal. Once button raises though I have another choice. (I knew he would raise before I bet if you want a hint where I'm going with this...)

Hand 2:

(I've begun 8-tabling lately and it has me doing many suspect things pre-flop and postflop. It's a leak but hey, 17.5BB/100 on 8 tables is better than 5.61BB/100 on four right? /images/graemlins/cool.gif I'll post another thread sometime on my thoughts on this experiment)

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, Button raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

I really wanted to extract some value from this hand. The pot was small and if villian had no A he might fold if I bet into him after he was the preflop raiser. I know there is a decent chance he has an A and will bet. By checking I let him represent the A and try to steal the pot. He's passive but HU even passive players will try to steal this pot here without the A sometimes. After that decision there's no point check-raising here as it will completely defeat the purpose... so I call. My only misgivings about this play were the two to a flush on the board. Not because I was afraid of losing to a flush but because a flush card would kill my slowplay. At this point I'm praying he really has the A and that the turn will be a non diamond as I don't want to "come alive" on a scare card.

Turn: (3.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero???

Marquis

03-30-2005, 12:04 PM

Nice work. Now smooth call the flop and lead the turn in hand one and check-raise hand two.

KaiShin

03-30-2005, 12:07 PM

Hand 1: Call it, lead the turn thinking Button will just raise again and you can trap MP2 again. After that its go time.

Hand 2: Check-raise.

KingOtter

03-30-2005, 12:12 PM

My thoughts before I read any of the other responses:

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: Hero raises,

[/ QUOTE ]

Reasons for check raising:
Board is pretty draw-less. Ace hit the board, so someone may want to bet here. A lot of people in the hand.

Reasons against:
You were pre-flop aggressor.

I think 'reasons for' win here.

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2:
(I know my limping with this hand is suspect at best but what happens next is interesting...)

[/ QUOTE ]

One thing to note is that the limp is suspect because you should have raised, right?

[ QUOTE ]
Button raises
Flop: (5.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Reasons for check raise:
Button was pre-flop aggressor... an Ace hit the table.

Reasons against:
A passive opponent that has JJ, QQ, KK here is probably going to check, even if he pre-flop raised. You're heads-up. Board has a flush draw on it (not that you can protect your hand against it).

'Reasons against' win here, I feel.

KO

davelin

03-30-2005, 12:15 PM

I think check-raising hand 1 is a huge mistake.

KingOtter

03-30-2005, 12:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]

This flop bet was a very easy one. There's absolutely no way I check here after raising pf. It would be criminal. Once button raises though I have another choice. (I knew he would raise before I bet if you want a hint where I'm going with this...)

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol... guess this is why I don't do it very much at all. Actually my FIRST impression was to not check raise the first one, and to check raise the second (although I like the check-call better, but was into the 'check-raise' evaluation mentality)... but I started listing reasons, and it seemed to reverse my views.

KO

bottomset

03-30-2005, 12:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1 - Betting is the pot-building move, not check-raising.
Hand 2 - Raise pre-flop or fold (but you know that). Passive opponent? Easy bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
17.5BB/100 on 8 tables is better than 5.61BB/100 on four right? I'll post another thread sometime on my thoughts on this experiment)

[/ QUOTE ]

you play worse but tripled your winrate?? is that factoring in extra rakeback or something ..

KingOtter

03-30-2005, 12:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think check-raising hand 1 is a huge mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I need serious help in that portion of the game. I really just never do it. Well, 8 times out of 864 according to my stats. Situation really has to be screaming check-raise at me in order to do it.

KO

droolie

03-30-2005, 12:54 PM

Hand 1:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Flop: (10.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Button raises, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls, Button caps, Hero calls, MP2 calls

With a player trapped for the ride and a more than willing dance partner I decided to see how much money this steamer wanted to give me.
Turn: (11.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero????

It's decision time again. To C/R or not? That is the question!

Hand 2:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, Button raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, Hero caps, Button calls.
Obviously the J/images/graemlins/heart.gif was a dream card for me. When I check/raise here I look like I hit my J. Villian obvioulsy has the A (and possibly AJ) and goes wild trying to stick it up my ear. I would have capped the river given the chance...How's that for LAG-tastic? I'll take my chances that villian does not have AA or JJ anyday.

The key to this C/R was the "safe" turn card. I think I would have been forced to lead into him on a scare card for fear he checks behind.

River: (11.75 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

btspider

03-30-2005, 12:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think check-raising hand 1 is a huge mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

after the bet and button's raise. call it and lead the turn. 3-bet a raise there though.

hand 2... did you have enough hands for that odd read? if he's aggro postflop, sometimes i throw in a check-call flop, bet-3bet turn line. they often raise AK/AQ and often calldown with KK/QQ type hands. i'd check-raise this villian given the check-call on the flop.

DMBFan23

03-30-2005, 01:01 PM

Hand 1: bet out again as MP is clearly willing to call all your bets, so I want to bet-3 bet this again. I am not giving credit for AA just yet.

Hand 2: nh. flop sets more often.

droolie

03-30-2005, 01:43 PM

I gotta run so I'll finish with Hand 1...

Hand 1:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Flop: (10.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Button raises, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls, Button caps, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls, Button caps, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

I think the only play here is to bet out and hope to trap MP2 again. C/Ring might get him to fold and that is not what I want. I think there is a very decent chance I'm getting to 3-bet and call a cap against two pair or worse here.

River: (23.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Obvioulsy I'm not slowing down....I think I three bet this river too if given the chance.

Final Pot: 26.25 BB

I posted this because I think this hand is a classic example of how you don't always need to protect a monster and how slowplaying will usually only cost you some bets. I knew there was a very decent chance that button would get in a pissing contest with me and that's exactly what happened.

Results in white...



In hand 1 steamer had AJ and MP2 had AK. MHIG.

In hand 2 villian had A7o. MHIG.

davelin

03-30-2005, 01:47 PM

Nice hand, leading the flop and leading the turn to trap the player in between is definitely the right play.

meep_42

03-30-2005, 03:22 PM

Hand 1, bet out.. what you do after that depends on the two players between you and the BB who will likely have to call 2 cold. If everyone is in this pot, i'm jamming. I'm leading the turn to trap the middle players if they're still there.

Hands 2, if he's too passive to bet that flop, you're not getting that much out of him. Check/raise the flop and lead the rest of the way. If he has an A, he'll call down, but I don't see much chance of him betting the turn if checked to and a diamond falls (or he doesn't improve to a showdown hand)

-d

TomBrooks

03-30-2005, 04:26 PM

HAND 1

Argument for slowplay:
- Ragged board leaves you pretty safe.
- There are three behind you and I wouldn't mind checkraising here. This may not be considered slowplaying though?

Argument against slowplay:
- You were the preflop raiser so it might get checked through and you will lose out on some bets.
- There is an ace on the board and you will get action from any ace holders.
- If the board pairs on the turn, especially an ace, your action may dry up if there are no ace holders.
- Since your were the preflop raiser a bet from you won't be so unexpected.
- The pot is large

Answer: Bet out. One of the requirements for slowplaying is that the pot be small.

Edit Note:No responses read before posting.

jskills

03-30-2005, 06:01 PM

Hand 1 - bet and hope LAG raises you.

Hand 2 - you MUST bet since there's a 2 flush on the board.

mmbt0ne

03-30-2005, 06:02 PM

No responses read yet, so take this for what you will.

Hand 1:
Bet the flop. If button's really steaming he'll raise. Smooth call, then bet out the turn. If the button raises, 3-bet. There really isn't much need to protect this hand, so just try to get as many people to come along for the most bets possible.

This one is really hard, I'm probably wrong.

Hand 2:
Against a really passive player, I really like check-call, check-call, bet. I know, this is a way ahead/way behind line, but if you don't think he'd raise this board with KK or QQ, etc. or even something like AJ, I think this gets you the most money. Let him put in his money, and then don't let him take the free showdown. If he ever checks behind you bet.
Do you see him calling a river bet if you check-raise the turn? If so, that's the street to check-raise. I know the worst feeling ever in a hand like this is when you whiff a river check-raise.

droolie

03-30-2005, 06:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Hand 2 - you MUST bet since there's a 2 flush on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying this because you fear I will lose to a flush or because the potential of a flush card ruining my slowplay potential? Keep in mind this hand is now HU.

FreakDaddy

03-30-2005, 06:23 PM

No slowplay on either hand. Texture of flop not good enough for even contemplating it even against LAG's.

milesdyson

03-30-2005, 08:22 PM

Haven't read any other responses.

Hand 1: This is a definite bet, imo. You got 3 coldcalls preflop, and Button is very aggressive postflop. I would bet and 3-bet this flop. You don't want to get fancy here by check raising or just bet calling, because you're in early position and a street could get checked through.

Hand 2: This one is more interesting. I definitely think this is an MP2 open raise 7-handed. As for postflop, I think this is a bet/bet/bet situation. If he has a strong A, he'll play back at you. If he has missed overcards, he'll check behind you if you offer him the chance, but he may peel one off on the flop expecting you're bluffing. If he has a high pair, he may call you down. I think you're either getting a lot or a little here, and the little is from him calling your flop bet and folding the turn. He won't check behind you on the flop and call the turn if he doesn't have a hand by then, and I don't think giving him the chance is worth missing a bet on the flop.

chris_a

03-30-2005, 09:23 PM

Slowplay criteria

You need all 3 to be true:

1) Pot has to be small. Once the pot gets big it becomes right to win it or make them pay to get cards. This rules out hand 1.
2) You have to have a reasonable chance of your opponent getting a second best hand with the free card that you give. But the free card you give isn't likely to beat you. This rules out 1 and 2 since they could already have an A. It especially rules out 2 since there's a four flush out there. YES, even heads up.
3) Betting now will likely make them fold. Heh, this rules out 1 and 2 since they could have an Ace in each and a flush draw in 2.

Conclusion: Bet hand 1 and Bet hand 2

droolie

03-30-2005, 09:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Slowplay criteria

You need all 3 to be true:

1) Pot has to be small. Once the pot gets big it becomes right to win it or make them pay to get cards. This rules out hand 1.
2) You have to have a reasonable chance of your opponent getting a second best hand with the free card that you give. But the free card you give isn't likely to beat you. This rules out 1 and 2 since they could already have an A. It especially rules out 2 since there's a four flush out there. YES, even heads up.
3) Betting now will likely make them fold. Heh, this rules out 1 and 2 since they could have an Ace in each and a flush draw in 2.

Conclusion: Bet hand 1 and Bet hand 2

[/ QUOTE ]

I think all three of these apply to hand 2.

1) Small pot. Check.

2) You have to have a reasonable chance of your opponent getting a second best hand with the free card that you give.

There are basically no scare cards for me. With this small pot I'm willing to take the chance that some runner runner will sink me. I would love another A to hit as I boat up and get a ton of action. The few times I lose to a bigger boat I can live with. As far as the flush potential, HU I'll take my chances he's not suited in diamonds. My only concern about diamonds was that it would kill the slowplay.

3) Betting now will likely make them fold.

I think if he doesn't have an A he folds when I bet into him on the flop or at best he folds UI on the turn and I win .5BB. If this street gets checked I really don't mind because he would have folded to a bet. This gives him a chance to make a second best hand on the turn. When he bets I know he'll bet the turn and I can check raise. If I'm lucky enough he'll play back at me.

chris_a

03-31-2005, 12:12 AM

Ok, the pot is kinda small, I'll give you that.

To reiterate point 2:
2) You have to have a reasonable chance of your opponent getting a second best hand with the free card that you give.

But the fact is that he could already have a very good second best hand (pair of Aces, especially since he raised preflop) or a flush draw. While you shouldn't live in fear of the flush, it's possible that the third diamond could beat you. Make him pay for it.. If you flopped a full house it would be a different story.

The slowplay on the second hand isn't as bad as the first, but I still would lean towards betting because of the 4 flush and the A being out there.

droolie

03-31-2005, 03:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, the pot is kinda small, I'll give you that.

To reiterate point 2:
2) You have to have a reasonable chance of your opponent getting a second best hand with the free card that you give.

But the fact is that he could already have a very good second best hand (pair of Aces, especially since he raised preflop) or a flush draw. While you shouldn't live in fear of the flush, it's possible that the third diamond could beat you. Make him pay for it.. If you flopped a full house it would be a different story.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since it's HU I want him to figure out he has a second best hand on an expensive street. I think it increases the net by a full BB.

[ QUOTE ]

The slowplay on the second hand isn't as bad as the first, but I still would lean towards betting because of the 4 flush and the A being out there.

[/ QUOTE ]
As far as the flush concerns I don't mind playing with fire HU. Put another player in the mix and I don't attempt this even when drunk at a 2+2 table!

As far as the A is concerned part of the reason I tried the slowplay was because the A was there. Against a passive opponent the A kills my action if villain doesn't have one and promises me a decent amount of action on the turn when I come alive if he does. It certainly does not scare me that villain might have AA. If that's the case I'll take my lumps.

chris_a

03-31-2005, 01:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Since it's HU I want him to figure out he has a second best hand on an expensive street. I think it increases the net by a full BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would be amazed if anyone agreed that it increases your net by a full BB. Maybe you could explain why you think so. In fact, I think that if there is an increase, that it's extremely small.

The fact that it's heads up means that he might call the flop anyway with a KQ or another hand that doesn't feel best to him on the flop, but might if he spikes a pair. If he had absolute junk, he's probably not going to call anyway.

[ QUOTE ]
As far as the flush concerns I don't mind playing with fire HU. Put another player in the mix and I don't attempt this even when drunk at a 2+2 table!

[/ QUOTE ]
Funny!

Anyway, I'll grant you that heads up is different and I'm not an expert at it. However, especially heads up, I tend to lean towards betting when I have it, and when I'm semibluffing. This tends to mask my play and gives my opponent the chance to fold. Sometimes your opponent is going to fold when you have trips. It's just the way it is. Does that mean you shouldn't value bet your trips? I don't think so. Do people fold that much heads up in a pot like this? Especially at 0.5/1.0? Especially guys like you described? Don't you want to lean towards just betting against an opponent like this for value? Why get fancy?

Keep in mind, that when you check with the best of it, you're letting your opponent have a free card. You have to have a really good reason to give your opponent a free card when you have the best of it. Not only are you giving him a free card, you're making it possibly cheaper for him to show down. You have to be able to more than make up for the value missed by checking, by increased action on later streets. This is the entire point of Sklansky's three criteria for slowplaying. I can't see why this hand qualifies as a hand where you can make up for it on later streets. Am I being that dense?

jskills

03-31-2005, 01:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Hand 2 - you MUST bet since there's a 2 flush on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying this because you fear I will lose to a flush or because the potential of a flush card ruining my slowplay potential? Keep in mind this hand is now HU.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know that the potential a flush will beat you in a HU situation is lower than it is with many opponents, but I still think you need to bet here regardless. The mistake of not betting when you're ahead to force a person to either fold or mistakenly call with incorrect odds is clearly worse than that of managing to squeeze an extra bet out of the situation.

droolie

03-31-2005, 02:38 PM

Let me start this by saying I almost NEVER slowplay. The conditions in which I will are almost always like this. HU, small pot, I have a monster and am 90% sure I'm way ahead and practically uncatchable and very concerned villian will fold or calldown if we show strength too soon.

You're right that playing str8forward is practically never a mistake and even in this example my fancy play might not have altered my final pot. I just think that a little creativity in these spots isn't necessarily a bad thing and in fact can be quite worthwhile. Micros is so anti-FPS that there needs to be some balance to the discussion, hence this thread....

In this example him catching up isn't really necessary for our slowplay to be more profitable than str8forward play. (Hopefully I can demonstrate it well enough to be convincing...)

I estimate that around 50% of the time he doesn't have an A.

When he has no A he's very likely to fold the flop or turn when we bet into him. I will say he is equally likely to fold the flop (0BB), turn(0.5BB) and calldown(2.5BB). That's a 1BB average earn.

When we check the flop and he doesn't have the A...
I estimate 75% of the time he bets 25% of the time he checks. (If he checks we continue the slowplay and check the turn to give him another chance to bet. If he checks the turn we bet the river. I say on average conservatively we extract 1BB out of him the 25% of the time he checks the flop through. Most of these flop check throughs would be folds if we had bet into him.) Him representing the A 75% of the time is debateable I'm sure but I think I'm close to correct here. If he has no A he's very likely to have a pocket pair and bet that for value, preparing to dump it to a check raise.

If he bets and we just call this bet he's very likley to bet the turn as well. This allows us to take the line I took which is the check raise. 50% of the time he'll calldown(3.5BB) the other 50% he'll fold(1.5BB). This is a 2.5BB average extraction. 75% of the time we get 2.5BB, 25% of the time we get 1BB when he has no A. That's an average of 2.125BB overall.

By my conservative estimate 50% of the time we suck an extra BB out of him when he has no A.

The other 50% of the time he has the A.

In those situations he is equally likely to calldown (usually a weak A 2.5BB) when we bet into him and raise the flop and calldown to the reraise (usually a big A 3.5BB). If he caps the flop we have to worry about AA (5% of the time maybe). That's an average of 3BB.

When we check the flop he will bet his A 100% of the time (.5BB). He will bet the turn 100% of the time (1BB). When we check/raise he will calldown 50% of the time (2BB) he will reraise before calling down 50% of the time(4BB) (I know this is a guess and possibly too high a % but we are going on the premise that he will assume we are stealing from him and will push back until he realizes too late he is beaten. I do not think he will fold very often here.) Therefore 50% of the time he will give us 3.5BB, 50% of the time he will give us 5.5BB. That's a 4.5 BB average. Therefore we make more on average when he has the A than we did when he didn't!

Obviously in both examples I haven't factored in the times when he hits a miracle to beat us. I think the potential gain is worth the 5% likelihood of him catching us from behind. Let's say losing the entire post to a slowplay cuts our expectation down .5BB on avarage. I think this is a very conservative estimate but I admit it's a wild guess.(If we are dead to a flopped set of A's we're screwed either way)

rabman

03-31-2005, 02:52 PM

Hand one you are the agressor, there is no reason to believe that someone else will bet except the Button. If you check raise you will face the guys between you with calling two cold. In this situation I prefer to bet out to get as many callers as possible. If raised by the button I'd smooth call and hope for overcalls.

Hand two - just bet it out. You prefer a call from him to having it checked through.

chris_a

03-31-2005, 03:26 PM

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The conditions in which I will are almost always like this. HU, small pot, I have a monster and am 90% sure I'm way ahead and practically uncatchable and very concerned villian will fold or calldown if we show strength too soon.

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"HU" isn't a consideration when thinking about slowplaying. "Small pot" is. In fact, I think HU you want to slowplay less since you will get called more often by someone with KQ or 77 thinking they may be catching your bluff. Betting doesn't necessarily mean you have a set here.

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I just think that a little creativity in these spots isn't necessarily a bad thing and in fact can be quite worthwhile. Micros is so anti-FPS that there needs to be some balance to the discussion, hence this thread....

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Yes, there needs to be balance, but for the right reasons. Not just for the sake of balance. Like I said earlier, when you slowplay you have to be sure that the value you are missing by playing passively now will be made up for on later streets. There's a concrete reason.

Which brings us to your analysis....
It's always easy to change probabilities and assume actions when you're trying to show a point, but the fact is that some of these just aren't necessarily true.

[ QUOTE ]
In those situations he is equally likely to calldown (usually a weak A 2.5BB) when we bet into him and raise the flop and calldown to the reraise (usually a big A 3.5BB). If he caps the flop we have to worry about AA (5% of the time maybe). That's an average of 3BB.

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This might be a low estimate.

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When we check the flop he will bet his A 100% of the time (.5BB). He will bet the turn 100% of the time (1BB). When we check/raise he will calldown 50% of the time (2BB) he will reraise before calling down 50% of the time(4BB) (I know this is a guess and possibly too high a % but we are going on the premise that he will assume we are stealing from him and will push back until he realizes too late he is beaten. I do not think he will fold very often here.) Therefore 50% of the time he will give us 3.5BB, 50% of the time he will give us 5.5BB. That's a 4.5 BB average. Therefore we make more on average when he has the A than we did when he didn't!

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The probability of him reraising here is what makes or breaks your argument. You said he's not as aggressive post flop so it may be lower.

That being said, your analysis has convinced me that it's closer than I thought. It might be right. I still don't think it's 1BB extra though.

This isn't a classical slowplay as much as just HU deception given that you don't want to kill your action when he does have his A. Nice job. I've officially learned something.

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I estimate 75% of the time he bets 25% of the time he checks. (If he checks we continue the slowplay and check the turn to give him another chance to bet. If he checks the turn we bet the river. I say on average conservatively we extract 1BB out of him the 25% of the time he checks the flop through. Most of these flop check throughs would be folds if we had bet into him.)

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There's no way checking again on the turn is even close to right here if he checks behind you on the flop.