Follow up to the big discussion yesterday!

[Rolen]

#Game No : 1812113369
***** Hand History for Game 1812113369 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:10818543 Level:7 Blinds(200/400) - Tuesday, March 29, 10:15:54 EDT 2005
Table Table 13852 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 5: Perrin ( $1230 )
Seat 9: RolenOnRiver ( $1518 )
Seat 8: thientai99 ( $1244 )
Seat 6: sef6911 ( $4008 )
Trny:10818543 Level:7
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to RolenOnRiver [ Kc Ad ]
Perrin folds.
sef6911 raises [2300].
thientai99 folds.
RolenOnRiver..

What do you do?

EDIT : I should probably provide some table reads, since I was multi-tabling I didn't have a strong one but hadn't noticed him being particularly aggressive, at least, not for a big stack.

[Voltron87]

Go all in.

[microbet]

I'd be interested to see if anyone says fold.

Seems like an easy call to me. You are by no means guaranteed 3rd place here.

[yeau2]

Well, if you feel that the other two are dumb enough to get knocked out and your playing the waiting game I am o k with folding. But otherwise, it looks like he raised to 2300 to make sure he covered both the blinds stacks. This tells me he feels his K or A rag suited is probably the best hand and he wants to push out anyone getting fancy, or that he wnats to push with a smaller pair and avoid a race. Regardless, I calling is absolutely a plus EV here.

[Rolen]

I folded. He flipped a pair of Qs. A few steals later..

#Game No : 1812118664
***** Hand History for Game 1812118664 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:10818543 Level:8 Blinds(250/500) - Tuesday, March 29, 10:19:09 EDT 2005
Table Table 13852 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 2
Seat 9: RolenOnRiver ( $4840 )
Seat 6: sef6911 ( $3160 )
Trny:10818543 Level:8
Blinds(250/500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to RolenOnRiver [ As 5d ]
RolenOnRiver raises [750].
sef6911 calls [500].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ah, Jc, 4d ]
sef6911 bets [1000].
RolenOnRiver is all-In [3840]
sef6911 calls [1160].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qd ]
>You have options at Table 14437 Table!.
** Dealing River ** [ 8d ]
sef6911 shows [ 7h, Jh ] a pair of jacks.
RolenOnRiver shows [ As, 5d ] a pair of aces.
sef6911 finished in second place and won $60.
RolenOnRiver wins 8000 chips from the main pot with a pair of aces.
Table Closed

[pooh74]

so, because of the eventual outcome of the game you feel vindicated as to your decision to fold AK.

Let me let u in on a little secret...if I am bigstack in your game, I am raising with 72 w/ 4 left...or who the hell knows...

the blinds are 400 and you lay down AK heads up? (I cant make out from your post who was what...were u the BB? Try using the converter)

I cant even believe im repsonding to this...unless there was some other circumstance that is not clear from the HH u posted, then I am clueless...

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I folded. He flipped a pair of Qs. A few steals later..


[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, well case closed then. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

eastbay

[Rolen]

'Let me let u in on a little secret...if I am bigstack in your game, I am raising with 72 w/ 4 left...or who the hell knows...'

You mean you don't do that to everyone else?

[Rolen]

'the blinds are 400 and you lay down AK heads up? (I cant make out from your post who was what...were u the BB? Try using the converter)'

Hell no, we're 4 handed with 2 smaller stacks

[Voltron87]

This is an easy push, I don't see why you posted it. You are ahead of a large portion of his holdings and even if you are 50 50 you can't pass this up because you are BB and don't have time to wait for a better spot (since Ax Kx is so likely). And posting later that he had QQ and you went on to win the tourney has nothing to do with whether the hand is a push. I push this 100%, case closed.

[Rolen]

Of course him having QQ is inconcequential, he may as well have had 72o, but you're underestimating the strength of your position in the tournament if you choose to fold.

EDIT : If i've got 1000 chips left 4 handed and the next smallest stack has 3000, then I NEED to double up. If I have 1000 chips left and there are two other stacks with 1000 left, I can let them feel the urge to double up, take guarenteed third a good portion of the time, and then adjust and try to take the win.

[Voltron87]

If you fold you're playing for 3/4, if you go all in you're playing for 1st. It's usally not a good idea to cripple yourself to go to 3rd, especially if you pass up edges to get there.

[Rolen]

Ehh, 1000 chips 3 handed's chances of taking first are not all that worse than 3000 chips 4 handed's chances.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me let u in on a little secret...if I am bigstack in your game, I am raising with 72 w/ 4 left...or who the hell knows...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're serious about 72 right? Don't kid with me. I mentioned having a minor revelation recently which was basically, that I could tell when FE was huge and I could push with any two and it was good. Last night I started looking at my cards again and saying "Ok, anything but 72, next time I'll push, I promise."

[Shanemex]

[ QUOTE ]
Ehh, 1000 chips 3 handed's chances of taking first are not all that worse than 3000 chips 4 handed's chances.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhh... what? If you call and win you are the chip leader and can bully the rest of the players so you have a huge lead when you get ITM. If you fold this you will be 3rd in chips with no folding equity. So now you need to get lucky that the other short stacks lose their all ins.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
I can let them feel the urge to double up, take guarenteed third a good portion of the time, and then adjust and try to take the win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two things wrong with this sentence...
(a) "Guaranteed third a good portion of the time" is like saying there's a 100% chance that I will have a 66% chance of getting third. It just don't make no sense.
(b) The smaller stacks are not all that much smaller than you are. In fact, if either of them steal one blind, they're ahead of you. Rather than making a move with an excellent hand (where your 65-75% favorite about 70% of the time, coinflip 28% of the time, and dominated 2% of the time and will double up if you win), you're gambling on a 50/50 shot that someone will bust out before you.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
'Let me let u in on a little secret...if I am bigstack in your game, I am raising with 72 w/ 4 left...or who the hell knows...'

You mean you don't do that to everyone else?

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant always in that situation...not "your" game in particular

[Scuba Chuck]

Rolen, I haven't read any of the subsequent posts, but my calling standards are pretty simple. JJ+, AK. Your stacksize, and your opponents stacksizes are not too relevant in this play, meaning to say that you aren't guaranteed ITM at this stage. The numbers, the math say that calling with AK is a good move here in the long run.

Furthermore, depending on other table factors, it's likely I'll lower these standards slightly when it's 4 handed to AQ and TT.

Scuba
who would have called with AK

[Rolen]

1) I mention 'guarenteed third' to put emphasis on the fact that your WORST place is third, and that first is still very attainable

2) I'm actually gambling on a 33/66 shot. Since there's two stacks at my level, let's say i'm 50/50 with each to bust out first, = 66/33 i'll make at least 3rd. Of course, i'm not even considering the possibility they both bust before I have to do anything..

[Rolen]

Well that's what you should be doing. And i'll be folding, just like I should be doing

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let me let u in on a little secret...if I am bigstack in your game, I am raising with 72 w/ 4 left...or who the hell knows...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're serious about 72 right? Don't kid with me. I mentioned having a minor revelation recently which was basically, that I could tell when FE was huge and I could push with any two and it was good. Last night I started looking at my cards again and saying "Ok, anything but 72, next time I'll push, I promise."

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, 83 or better

If I just raised all in as big stack on bubble 3 times in a row, Ill fold KQs UTG (maybe)...im more concerned about conditions at this point than cards...and obviously I am giving extreme examples to prove a point.

But I dont want to distract from the fine discussion in this thread re: folding AK and going on to be king of the world...

Rolen: why did you post this if you refuse to consider that it may be the wrong move? (IMO...horrible...i feel silly even saying it its so obvious to me)

[citanul]

note: ak is not the same as a big pair. it'd almost definitely a call/push 4 handed in your situation, but it's not the same as saying you should fold kk. for instance, in the daliman hand from yesterday, i'd probably fold AK given the shortness of the blinds, but i'd never fold kk-jj i don't think.

i think it's vaguely entertaining that you said "a couple steals later" and somehow eliminated 2 players.

meh

citanul

rolen: you're describing your play as classic weak tight, and then justifying individual plays with results. that's just not good.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Well that's what you should be doing. And i'll be folding, just like I should be doing

[/ QUOTE ]

With AK? listen...i am not going to talk you out of playing that weak...but this forum is for advice...take it or leave it.

[Rolen]

Hey hey, i'm not trying to say THIS IS THE BEST PLAY DO THIS, don't want to come across as arrogant (even though I may have..) I'm saying this is a way to play, and it works for me at my level. We're all about debate here!

[adanthar]

This one's closer than the other one (folding KK...I wish there was a rolleyes smiley here) mostly because of what that giant raise means from a typical 20+2 fish. Those raises usually mean decent or big hands, and if you know he has a pair you can fold, so it's not all THAT bad of an option.

That said, I'd call, you should call too, and if you keep playing weak/tight on the bubble you'll be back posting an 'OMG how have I lost so much, weep for my bad beats' thread in no time flat.

[codewarrior]

At the $20 level, with little to no reads and less than 4BB left, I call. Odds are you will be blinded out waiting around for a better spot. I don't think this is close.

[Rolen]

'rolen: you're describing your play as classic weak tight, and then justifying individual plays with results. that's just not good.'

I'll clarify :

I definately err on the side of weak-tight in my calling options, certainly not in my raising ones, more LAG. Fortunately for my bankroll I seem to be able to take the best of both extremes rather than the worst. About the KK, I was really inferring that for Dali to make that move he must've had a strong read that the people in front were super-tight in their calling requirements (like me) in that situation.

Obviously I have plenty to learn

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
note: ak is not the same as a big pair.


[/ QUOTE ]

granted...but he is dominating so many hands that BS is pushing here and is AT WORST a coinflip...(barring the obvious 2 hands).

Listen, i have AK here...im even with the other 3 stacks for all intents and purposes...if BS flips over qq-55 i would probably fold...the reason you call is because of the % this is a hand that you kill...and its high here. if you dont push your edges you're gonna find a huge % of 3rds and 4ths over the long haul.

[citanul]

rolen's making baby jesus cry. i'm going to go watch something tivoed.

citanul

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
This one's closer than the other one (folding KK...I wish there was a rolleyes smiley here) mostly because of what that giant raise means from a typical 20+2 fish. Those raises usually mean decent or big hands, and if you know he has a pair you can fold, so it's not all THAT bad of an option.

That said, I'd call, you should call too, and if you keep playing weak/tight on the bubble you'll be back posting an 'OMG how have I lost so much, weep for my bad beats' thread in no time flat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think reads are usually futile at this point of the game...I think a call from UTG BS may raise a red flag...but at this point of the game (even less so than heads up i believe) reads take a back seat to position, image (read correlated, i know), stack size, and what you're holding.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
'rolen: you're describing your play as classic weak tight, and then justifying individual plays with results. that's just not good.'

I'll clarify :

I definately err on the side of weak-tight in my calling options, certainly not in my raising ones, more LAG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that why you advocate folding JJ with 4BB in your stack when there is a big stack behind? That is not LAG, my friend.

eastbay

[Rolen]

Ah yes, well, one must take into consideration where the big stack is.

Could you run an EV calc on a push here

150/300

UTG : 1500 chips, JJ
Button : 750 chips
SB : 1500 chips
BB : 6250 chips - calls with any ace, 66+, K9+, K2s+

[citanul]

egad! i've never seen that hand before. man. big thing to consider here when you decide to fold jj utg is that well, you're not even close to a lock to make the money with your 1500 chips.

we'll eagerly await the ev calculations though.

citanul

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
'the blinds are 400 and you lay down AK heads up? (I cant make out from your post who was what...were u the BB? Try using the converter)'

Hell no, we're 4 handed with 2 smaller stacks

[/ QUOTE ]

I know that...i meant, u r heads up in the hand...u close the action here IOW.

[jah0550]

Call as fast as pobbible. He is just playing big stack poker and is trying to push you around. Why the hell would you not call 4 handed with AK? Call this everyday and twice on Sunday.

[HC5831]

[ QUOTE ]
#Game No : 1812113369
***** Hand History for Game 1812113369 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:10818543 Level:7 Blinds(200/400) - Tuesday, March 29, 10:15:54 EDT 2005
Table Table 13852 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 5: Perrin ( $1230 )
Seat 9: RolenOnRiver ( $1518 )
Seat 8: thientai99 ( $1244 )
Seat 6: sef6911 ( $4008 )
Trny:10818543 Level:7
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to RolenOnRiver [ Kc Ad ]
Perrin folds.
sef6911 raises [2300].
thientai99 folds.
RolenOnRiver..

What do you do?


[/ QUOTE ]

Without a strong read, like he would only make a huge OB with a big PP, this is a easy call. I don't put a lot of stock in the purely math calculations. Math is only half the game. If you fold here, I want to play at your tables.

HC

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
1) I mention 'guarenteed third' to put emphasis on the fact that your WORST place is third, and that first is still very attainable

[/ QUOTE ]

I know...my point is that you are by no means guaranteed third at that point. By your own admission, folding gives you about a 66% chance at third...that is not guaranteed.

[ QUOTE ]
2) I'm actually gambling on a 33/66 shot. Since there's two stacks at my level, let's say i'm 50/50 with each to bust out first, = 66/33 i'll make at least 3rd. Of course, i'm not even considering the possibility they both bust before I have to do anything..

[/ QUOTE ]

OK given that if you fold, you are a 66% chance to limp into third. I don't have pokerstove here (at work) but I think its fair to say you're not to far from 66% against his range of pushing hands. Now, your either taking a 66% chance to end up ITM with a similar or smaller stack (by folding), or taking almost the same chance at ending up ITM as the big stack.

I think the choice is pretty clear.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]


OK given that if you fold, you are a 66% chance to limp into third. I don't have pokerstove here (at work) but I think its fair to say you're not to far from 66% against his range of pushing hands. Now, your either taking a 66% chance to end up ITM with a similar or smaller stack (by folding), or taking almost the same chance at ending up ITM as the big stack.

I think the choice is pretty clear.

[/ QUOTE ]

finally...good job sofere.

[Rolen]

Assuming he's pushing with any ace, K9(s + o)+ and any pair, equity is 63.738%. I don't believe that covers future folding equity at the 20+2s.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming he's pushing with any ace, K9(s + o)+ and any pair, equity is 63.738%. I don't believe that covers future folding equity at the 20+2s.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are giving future FE way too much weight in this situation given, 1. you have none to little, 2. itll be taken away from you 50-66% of the time by big stack.

You may see one hand where you can raise an unraised pot before you have only 2 BBs left (at best)...I just cant see your line here at all...no disrepsect intended.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming he's pushing with any ace, K9(s + o)+ and any pair, equity is 63.738%. I don't believe that covers future folding equity at the 20+2s.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but you just said in your previous post that you have 66% to get third if you fold.

Now think of this...if you fold here and survive to ITM (66% chance) you will probably have between 1000 and 2000. Would you prefer this?

OOOOR

For the same low price of a 63.738% chance of making the money, you get all this:
1500 more chips,
do not have the biggest stack at the table to your immediate left,
in fact you ARE the big stack and finally
a much better shot at 1st.

Now...will you choose whats behind door number 1? or will you take what's in this box?
________
|_______|
|__????__|
|_______|

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]

________
|_______|
|__????__|
|_______|

[/ QUOTE ]

I know poker pays more...but did art ever come up as a career path? Given your limited resources here I must commend you...a little 3 point perspective wouldve been nice though.

[johnny005]

just got eastbays SNG tool not quit sure how to use all the functions but here is what it says if the BB is calling with 22+,A2+,K2+,Q9+, and other players have normall calling standards..77+, A9+.....
$EV fold= 23.7%....$EV push=24.6% +o.9% EV
PUSH THIS
so these calculations are against even looser calling standards than you sugested and it still comes out +ev.......push that every time.

[RobGW]

Rolen,

If you want to play a risk averse style and just make the money then thats your perogative. I saw your numbers the other day and they look ok. Congrats, you seem to be a winning player. However, your style is far from optimal. You would have even better results if you opened your mind to all the advice given by the better players on this board all of which say to go all in here. I'm not saying that I am always right and you are always wrong but I can't help but thinking that AK and JJ are just too good to fold shorthanded. It's good that you consider factors such as stack sizes and FE but I seriously think you are overestimating your ability especially with blinds this high. And as you move up in limits your weak tight style is going to catch up to you. You yourself give examples of how powerful the big stack can be. Think of how your ROI will be impacted if you could get your hands on the big stack once in a while.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
'rolen: you're describing your play as classic weak tight, and then justifying individual plays with results. that's just not good.'

I'll clarify :

I definately err on the side of weak-tight in my calling options, certainly not in my raising ones, more LAG. Fortunately for my bankroll I seem to be able to take the best of both extremes rather than the worst. About the KK, I was really inferring that for Dali to make that move he must've had a strong read that the people in front were super-tight in their calling requirements (like me) in that situation.

Obviously I have plenty to learn

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to think this way as well. I garnered me a 40% ITM and a 5.7% ROI. Maybe it was variance, but maybe it was because the few times I did call and was dominated/sucked out on, my stack was smaller than it could've/should've been and I busted out.

[sofere]

Thanks...I was trying to draw a bow around it but failed miserably /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Could you run an EV calc on a push here


[/ QUOTE ]

Would you like eastbay to make you a ham sandwich too? How about washing your car while he's at it?

You should be happy that eastbay even bothers to respond to these silly questions.

You know how to compute ICM, or you should take the time to figure it out. eastbay's tool is not required to do this (though it certainly makes things easier).

Actually, you should just buy his tool to help you (and after all the help he's given you.)

[Rolen]

Now that you mention it, a ham sandwich would be awesome right now

Hold the mayo