Marginal situation early in MTT

[PokerGoblin]

$20 party NL HE

20 minutes into tourney. blinds are 10/20. I have 2500TC. Villian has 1500TC.

I am on the BB w/ 10-J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG (villian) makes it 70TC to go. One player cold calls, folds to me, I call.

Flop comes 9-Q-x w/ 2 diamonds (not OESF draw). I check, villian bets 200TC, other guy folds, I push all in.

Standard play?

Thoughts?

PG

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
Standard play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup

[ZBTHorton]

I like it too.

[woodguy]

Yup.

I pulled that play in a party $100 last week and got called by 2nd pair for all his chips when he had less than 10% committed preflop.

I missed.

He types in, "knew you were bluffing"

Love that.

Can't bitch when it happens.

Regards,
Woodguy

[Roman]

standard.

[captainzodiac]

i think i'd push here also because the villian can't break you,and you have very good odds to make your hand,if the villian had me covered i don't likely make this push,since you're already building a nice stack and it's very early.
i think if he had me covered i'd just be a calling station for him and hope to make my hand,and hope he doesn't make it too expensive if i don't.

[skoal2k4]

lets see... you have 8000000000 outs here with plenty of fold equity as well... nicely played. I hope it worked out for you

[PokerGoblin]

thanks, it seemed like the right thing to do, but anytime I make a move like that early I always second guess.

As for the comment that you don't like it if my opponent has me covered, I think that's more reason to do it honestly. I am getting better implied odds if he has me covered. My hand had 17 outs to a probable winner, which with 2 cards to come is better than even money to come in.

Turned out he had AQo for TPTK. Basically a coin flip w/ 2 cards to come. The turn was the 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif making my flush but pairing the board. He caught a queen on the river to win the pot.

PG

[Avgard]

I think you miscounted your outs. You had 15 to a probable winner (you probably counted the Kd and 8d twice). With 15 outs, you are about 57%/43% against your opponent.

[captainzodiac]

i see your point of implied odds if he has you covered,personally i like to avoid coin tosses when losing means going broke,especially early in a tourney when you have already built a decent stack,especially when you are most likely one of the better players in the tourney,and that decent stack can be used to your advantage in the later stages,when the blinds increase. it's still a good gamble,especially if you're a good big stack player and this draw works out.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]

I am getting better implied odds if he has me covered.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, if you're going all in, there are no implied odds. Whatever is in the pot if he calls is what you're contesting.

I like the move, but in the low limit MTTs I play, it just seems like I'm going to get called often by people with crap like bottom pair who "thinks I'm bluffing." Although I have a ton of outs in a situation like this and am a favorite with 2 cards to come, is it right to make this move and take this coin flip when you suspect that the calling station will just call you anyways? Against a calling station, wouldn't you just wait for a better spot to commit your chips?

[PokerGoblin]

Against anything other than a set, I want to be called. You are right, 15 outs, not 17 like I had stated.

A lot of players go out of their way to avoid going broke early in the event. Why? Having a big stack this early in the tourney is a luxury that is worth the risk. If I get busted what am I out? A half hour of my time?

I'd rather play my strong hands and strong draws aggressively to improve my chances of advancing late into the tourney as opposed to being an average stack the whole time as the blinds grow and grow. There is nothing worse than sitting in front of the computer for 3 hours, then having the push my whole stack in on pocket 5's cause I only have 4 big blinds left 10 seats out of the money.

Better to burn out than fade away.

PG

[LethalRose]

Standard, and im praying he calls.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]

A lot of players go out of their way to avoid going broke early in the event. Why? Having a big stack this early in the tourney is a luxury that is worth the risk. If I get busted what am I out? A half hour of my time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. I think I should be willing to gamble more and if someone makes a bad call on me, then that's poker and I lose my buy-in and some of my time.

What if it's in the middle of the tournament and blinds are starting to increase, BUT it's not bubble time yet? I have to make a move, but with the time invested in it, I'll still be pissed if I move all-in on "just" a draw (though I'm ahead) and get called by the middle-pair calling station and fail to improve.

These types of situations are KILLING me in MTTs.

[PokerGoblin]

[ QUOTE ]
What if it's in the middle of the tournament and blinds are starting to increase, BUT it's not bubble time yet? I have to make a move, but with the time invested in it, I'll still be pissed if I move all-in on "just" a draw (though I'm ahead) and get called by the middle-pair calling station and fail to improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

The blanket solution to your dilemma is to get it all in preflop. If I am shortstacked (less than 8 big blinds) I push all in a lot, especially when I am in late position when no one has entered the pot, and if one of the blinds is also shortstacked. If you are shortstacked something good is going to have to happen for you or you'll be blinded off. If you can steal some blinds to the point that you are bringing in more than you are having to post, eventually you will build a big enough stack to where you can play postflop poker again. If your steal attempt runs into a monster, well that's poker too.

PG

[Hickboy]

I do like your play on the flop...OESD with flush draw makes you the favorite against most hands. The only exceptions are if you have ran into trips or jacks.

The real question is why would you want to call an EP raise with J-T? I understand that the pot odds in this spot are good (getting a little more than 3:1), but you will miss most of the flops, and you could lose a ton of chips if you are up against an overpair, or even AJ, KJ, or A10 (people overplay these hands in the low buyin tourneys all the time).

Just my 2 cents.

[PokerGoblin]

[ QUOTE ]
The real question is why would you want to call an EP raise with J-T?

[/ QUOTE ]

A few reasons. I thought about folding, but I was pretty deeply stacked at that point (20TC big blind, I had 2500TC), so 50 chips isn't much to me in that respect.

The pot odds at this point are not a factor, it's my implied odds that justify a call. The raiser had 1500TC and the cold caller had about 900 I think, both of whom I have comfortable covered. I can potentially stack them off on the right flop.

[ QUOTE ]
I understand that the pot odds in this spot are good (getting a little more than 3:1), but you will miss most of the flops, and you could lose a ton of chips if you are up against an overpair, or even AJ, KJ, or A10 (people overplay these hands in the low buyin tourneys all the time).


[/ QUOTE ]

This hand has no top pair value whatsoever, and it's easy to get away from if I miss the flop entirely, so in the event that I do hit a jack or 10 high flop I am still going to fold to an overbet, which is likely coming from the raiser on pretty much any flop. I knew I was either going to check-raise all in or fold. The only exception is if I am (un)lucky enough to flop 2 pair, then I probably would have called the flop bet and reevaluated my situation on the turn.

PG