Standard or spewing

[brettbrettr]

Table was fairly typical, but my image is maniacal as I'm getting hand after hand. I'm wondering about the turn 3bet. I figure I've got 3 queens, and my hearts are solid outs. The Aces or kings prob aren't clean. No reason whatsoever not to raise for value here, right?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

River: (19.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button calls, Hero folds, UTG+1 folds.

Final Pot: 21.50 BB

[shark6]

There are 4 players that are likely to see the river, and you have a better than 1 in 4 chance to win, so I'd 3-bet turn to build pot based on your pot equity.

[mikeyvegas]

I would just call the turn raise. It doesn't look like your A or K outs are good.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
I would just call the turn raise. It doesn't look like your A or K outs are good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even being generous and discounting 1 heart to the possibility of a set/two pair, Hero has 11 outs to the nuts. That comes out to just under 25% of the remaining unknown cards, so in the strictest terms, the 3-bet is not for value if you discount one of the heart outs and all of his A and K outs. Personally, I think you can give him at least 12 total outs, making the 3-bet valid.

[mikeyvegas]

He was called in all spots with his 3 bet on the turn. I don't think hero can count on this most times. That's why I would just call the raise.

[adamstewart]

I don't like the raise. Calling is the better play.

Here's why:

Given the turn action, I'm not going to count any of your A or K outs, cuz I don't think a single pair will take this pot.

I'm giving you 12 outs for your Queens and heart outs to the straight and flush, respectively. I'm discounting a half out for each of 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and J /images/graemlins/heart.gif because those may fill someone up to a boat, in which case you lose. So, I'll give you 11 "outs" to the "best hand."

With one card left, your odds of hitting an 11-outer are 3.2:1. Therefore, you'll make you're winning hand 23.8% of the time.

* First of all, this isn't enough equity to raise this 4-person pot.
* Secondly, raising potentially pushes out UTG+1 and CO who may call 1 bet, but not 2. If you lose even *one* player here, you have EVEN LESS equity than required!
* Thirdly, you leave yourself susceptible to a cap by the Button, and if you've lost any customers with your 3-bet.....that's -EV.
* Finally, you potentially kill your implied odds when you make your hand on the river, by having everyone check into you when you could have perhaps raised them.


Calling is better. You keep customers, gain implied odds when you do hit your hand, (and you don't even have the equity to raise here).


Edit: just re-read the hand and realized the turn action was not as great as I first thought. I'll allow for more outs for the A's and K's because a single top pair, may take this down. However, I still maintain that calling is better as most of the time your 3-bet will push out *at least* one of the other two players ... which results in you *not* having the equity.



Adam

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
He was called in all spots with his 3 bet on the turn. I don't think hero can count on this most times.

[/ QUOTE ]

[adamstewart]

.... for instance.... in a 3 person pot, you need to have *at least* 16 outs to have the equity to raise with one card left to come.

Hero is far from 16 *clean* outs here.

Heads-up, it is impossible for hero to have the equity to raise.

Adam

[DiamondDave]

The 3bet on the turn was excessive.

[chesspain]

Brett,

I think you way overplayed this hand. Firstly, I don't see the point in betting into four other players on this flop, especially if they may see you as loose-aggressive, when you only have a gutshot, a backdoor flush, and some iffy overcard outs, especially when that flop falls squarely into the playing zone for limping. However, betting may not be a big mistake in comparison to calling.

However, I think that the turn play is worse. In fact, I don't see the point in betting out on the turn, since you aren't taking the pot down right there and it is unlikely that you are getting value on the bet. Furthermore, the three-bet is spewing, plain and simple, since I highly doubt that the button is raising three players with a hand worse than yours.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you way overplayed this hand. Firstly, I don't see the point in betting into four other players on this flop, especially if they may see you as loose-aggressive, when you only have a gutshot, a backdoor flush, and some iffy overcard outs, especially when that flop falls squarely into the playing zone for limping. However, betting may not be a big mistake in comparison to calling.

[/ QUOTE ]


Hmmm.... i don't know if i'm "right" or not, but I lead this flop almost 100% of the time.

You raised from the blinds, so those who limped in with weak hands may be looking for a reason to fold. You have up to 11.5 outs. And you're surely going to call this flop anyway so you might as well bet it in an effort to fold some hands out.

If you get raised, it's not so bad. It'll give you a better idea where you stand, and again, you have up to 11.5 outs.


Adam

[ErrantNight]

i think leading the flop is kosher. a raise might be delicious, actually.

but i think the turn was way overplayed. i don't lead, and i don't 3-bet it fer sure.

[ErrantNight]

your turn 3-bet isn't for value. do you see why?

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
i think leading the flop is kosher. a raise might be delicious, actually.

but i think the turn was way overplayed. i don't lead, and i don't 3-bet it fer sure.

[/ QUOTE ]


agreed.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think leading the flop is kosher. a raise might be delicious, actually.

but i think the turn was way overplayed. i don't lead, and i don't 3-bet it fer sure.

[/ QUOTE ]


agreed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks.

[shark6]

As usual, Adamstewart makes an excellent point and I change my answer to call the turn bet. Even though I doubt your equity is much less than 25%, if it is at all, the main reason for just calling is
1. The uncertainty about your equity percentage
2. The better chance to keep the other two players in the game and get 2 more BB’s into the pot.
3. Pull a river checkraise if desired

[ErrantNight]

boston is teh suck. but i've been happy there for a while.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
boston is teh suck. but i've been happy there for a while.

[/ QUOTE ]

Boston is terrible. I'm going back to NY first chance I get.

[ErrantNight]

go red sox