JJ didn't value bet the river

[MrWookie47]

Now, I realize that every time you don't value bet the river, God kills a kitten. I'm curious if, in this case, the kitten died for the best.

Villain here is on the tight side of TAG: 10%/5%/6.0, but after only 30 hands or so.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Rock on. JJ. Easy 3-bet, but I'm not particularly excited that I was capped by a good player, and I won't have any loose players padding the pot for me.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls.

I couldn't ask for a better flop that doesn't have a J. When I raise and he doesn't make it three bets, I suspect AK rather than AA-QQ, unless I scared him into thinking I had AA or KK to his QQ.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls.

I couldn't ask for a much better turn card, even if it does open up a couple possible redraws. No reason to be worried, though. I bet.

River: (8.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP3 checks, Hero checks.

I'd have bet if it was a Q, a diamond, or anything that wasn't an A or a K, and called a raise. However, since AK and QQ seemed to be his most likely holdings, I didn't think that I would be called by much I beat, and if I was check raised, I was toast. The only hand that I could put villain on that would smooth call and I beat would be TT. Otherwise I was getting check/raised or not called at all.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

While I feel bad for the kitten, what do you guys think?

[cold_cash]

I don't see any pre-flop capping hands that you're ahead of once the King comes off.

[bozlax]

Danger, Will Robinson (limbs flailing)!

While I can see a TAG capping PF with TT (or the unlikely other half of your quads) I'd probably have wussed out here, too, based on the "don't bet the river if you're not prepared to call a raise" theory, and I don't think I'd want to fight that hard for a relatively small pot. I also can't see a TAG calling with anything you beat given the preflop action (he's going through the same mental gymnastics you are).

[UncleSalty]

That's a tough one. Obviously you played perfectly through the turn. I think if he's TAG as his (undersized sample) stats indicate, he would be betting the river if he has you beat. Probably QQ is the only hand you have to worry about here, so I think you need to bet this.

I thought God killed someone's monkey avatar when you don't value bet these??

-Salty

Edit: Everyone else's responses seem so much more appealing, now I'm just freakin confused. Flop a J next time.

[milesdyson]

After the flop and turn action, we can put him on AK, QQ, JJ, and maybe TT.

When we see the river, we know there are 12 AKs possible.

There are 6 QQs out, 1 JJ, and 6 TTs.

It's only a value bet if he has one of the 6 TTs, which will not be the case often enough to bet.