I can't stop getting 4ths.

[ace_in_the_hole]

Can someone tell me why im supposed to play aggresive on the bubble against players who don't even seem to know what the bubble is?

[Rolen]

1) Never call an all in from someone who covers you substantially without AK, AQ, AA, KK or QQ.
2) Never raise behind a big stack
3) Never refuse to raise behind a med stack
4) Never raise behind a small stack without a semi-decent hand
5) Always raise behind a small stack with a semi-decent hand

Happy bubbling

[ace_in_the_hole]

is Ax x=2-9 decent?

[eastbay]

Aggressive compared to what? You should play appropriately for the tendencies of your opponents. This is very different at $10+1 than it is at $50+5.

The main adjustment is making looser calling range assumptions. This changes bubble strategy significantly. The gap is narrower (meaning you should fold more hands), and it shifts the value of push hands away from hands which have a fighting chance against premium hands to hands which have high card value which are better against looser calling ranges. You should also give more weight to survival value, since the bubble will often end in fewer hands than at higher levels.

eastbay

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Never call an all in from someone who covers you substantially without AK, AQ, AA, KK or QQ.
2) Never raise behind a big stack
3) Never refuse to raise behind a med stack
4) Never raise behind a small stack without a semi-decent hand
5) Always raise behind a small stack with a semi-decent hand

Happy bubbling

[/ QUOTE ]

I would rather be calling an all in with JJ than AK on the bubble. (or anytime for that matter)

[Phil Van Sexton]

Try finishing 5th and 6th more often.

You might be waiting too long to turn up the aggressiveness. Don't just fold until there are 4 and then expect to make the $ due to your great skill.

[1C5]

And rever raise behind a big stack? I get a good hand and I am raising anywhere.

[TruFloridaGator]

If I'm the short stack, then I may have to push any Ace on a medium stack. I'm only raising w/ A9+ against a short who may call me and a huge stack who may call me.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Never call an all in from someone who covers you substantially without AK, AQ, AA, KK or QQ.
2) Never raise behind a big stack
3) Never refuse to raise behind a med stack
4) Never raise behind a small stack without a semi-decent hand
5) Always raise behind a small stack with a semi-decent hand

Happy bubbling

[/ QUOTE ]

Aside from all the other things I can think of to say to the above... #1 will get you bubbled way more at the 50's and above. You're going to have to learn to call all-ins from very strong aggressive players with much much worse. Even if this means bubbling it's almost always the right play against some opponents. (in my experience)

[JuicePGA]

I'm with you man. Don't call an all in with JJ but it's ok with AQ, what are you insane? And don't raise a big stack? If I catch a good hand in 4-handed play I'm raising, PERIOD, especially on my button. Don't listen to Rolen, he's obviously that guy that just folds folds folds and trys to sneak into third...we don't need any more spineless poker players.

[skipperbob]

[ QUOTE ]
we don't need any more spineless poker players.

[/ QUOTE ]

You probably didn't like Chip Beck either /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Rolen]

My style of play lends itself to sneaking into third, then taking first under the big stacks noses.

This is very simple and easy to understand..

People call you on the bubble with crap because it means they get into the money

People don't call you with crap once you're in the money because they're looking to win.

Save aggression for three handed play. And run some ICMs on bubble play, they'll tell you that you need a HUGE advantage in cards to make any sort of call worthwhile on the bubble.

(In other words, messing with the big stack 4 handed without a PREMIUM hand is stupid. You dick about with JJ and he sees A6 on the BB, he's calling and you're out 33% of the time.)

[Rolen]

It's great to push with (against a med/small stack)

It's terrible to call with

[nokona13]

The incredibly loose calling ranges in the 22s and 33s has been killing me. I've found that against a typical opponent, I can push 2 or MAYBE 3 times after there are 5 people left before most players start assuming every time I push I have 72o and start calling with any ace, most kings, sometimes even crap like Q9o. So I can usually only get away with stealing maybe twice with crap, unless there's some particularly rockish player who I know will fold his BB.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
(In other words, messing with the big stack 4 handed without a PREMIUM hand is stupid. You dick about with JJ and he sees A6 on the BB, he's calling and you're out 33% of the time.)

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are folding JJ first-in just because the big stack is on the BB, that is a problem. (unless, say, UTG has 2 chips)

You can't ignore good stealing opportunities on the bubble or your 1st/2nd finishes will suffer too much.

[Rolen]

Say I have 1200 chips, someone else has 1000 chips, someone else has 1800 chips and someone else has the remaining 4000

Three situations..

I'm BB with JJ, guy with 4000 raises allin on button. I fold. He'll likely have at least 1 overcard + i'm not putting my tournament life at risk on a worse than 2/1 shot at best.

I'm button with JJ, big stack folds, the two med/small stacks are the blinds. Obviously, I push. In fact I push with any two here. If I take in down I don't just gain the blinds, I take them off of other small stacks.

I'm button with JJ, small stack folds, big stack is the BB. If I push here I gain the blinds and nothing else. The big stack isn't going to bust in 4th barring a miracle so his chips aren't worth as much to me as the small stacks. Not only is big stack more likely to call cause he's got chips to spend, you're also gaining less if it works. Think about it..

[1C5]

If the blinds are significant, I call/push in all 3 situations with JJ.

[TheUsher]

The most important part of the post was left out. What are the blinds at?

[Rolen]

Indeed - If the blinds are massive, you have to just use the 'ooh, that hand looks pretty' method of poker and push. If you've got a few rounds left in you (i'd say 100/200 would be reasonable here) and the BB is the big stack, there's no need to be throwing chips around with anything other than hands that are likely to dominate a call from big stack (AQ being one of them)

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm button with JJ, small stack folds, big stack is the BB. If I push here I gain the blinds and nothing else. The big stack isn't going to bust in 4th barring a miracle so his chips aren't worth as much to me as the small stacks. Not only is big stack more likely to call cause he's got chips to spend, you're also gaining less if it works. Think about it..

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I actually calculated a situation almost identical to this, before posting my reply. (foot in mouth protection)

If the chip stacks were:

UTG 1000
HERO 1750
SB 1250
VILLAIN 4000

Blinds 200/400. You have JJ.
If you fold, your $EV is .2539
If you push and steal the blinds, your EV is .2955.
If BB shows you A3o, you KNOW he'll call (and SB will fold), and you push, your $EV is .2556.

I'm sure you can get a much more robust analysis of this by plugging this into Eastbay's program, and I'm sure it will still tell you that pushing JJ here is a winner.

I agree that your calling standards should be very tight on the bubble, but your pushing standards shouldn't be nearly as tight.

You have the right idea as far as the risk/reward involved with playing with the various opponents, but you are taking it a little too far if you are folding hands like JJ first-in.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
with anything other than hands that are likely to dominate a call from big stack (AQ being one of them)

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ fares better against the loose calling standards you described than AQo does.


Hand 1: 59.4273 % [ 00.56 00.03 ] { AcQd }
Hand 2: 40.5727 % [ 00.37 00.03 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-KTs, AKo-A2o, KQo-KTo }


Hand 1: 66.7210 % [ 00.66 00.00 ] { JJ }
Hand 2: 33.2790 % [ 00.33 00.00 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-KTs, AKo-A2o, KQo-KTo }

[Rolen]

I find three handed play to be so easy to bully that I can afford to pass up situations like this in order to get myself into three handed play. Parhaps this is 'stakes dependant', but at the level I play at, people (big stacks) need much better hands to call during 3 handed play than they do during bubble play. If I go allin here, get called by Ax and win, i'm only a couple of successful blind steals at 3 handed play better off, and I find this risk more managable.

[davehwm]

[ QUOTE ]
He'll likely have at least 1 overcard + i'm not putting my tournament life at risk on a worse than 2/1 shot at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, if he calls you with A6o - an example of having "one overcard", you're going to win 70% of the time.

Second of all, I think you're thinking way too short term. The way you say "my tournament life" sounds like you're trying to hard to just place ITM. I want to my JJ to be called by an overcard - if my tournament life ends because of a hand where I'm winning 70% of the time, I'm just going to fire up another one. In the long term, the advantage of getting ITM with a big enough chip stack to take down 1st or 2nd is far to great to play that passively on the bubble.

[Rolen]

Almost. I'm not trying to place ITM, i'm trying to GET ITM so I can take first. Tournaments after ITM play, assuming the blinds are as big as they usually are, are basically decided by whomever is more aggressive and whomever has the better cards. If you're in the top 3 with half the chips and you never see a decent hand against aggressive opponents with significant blinds, you're done for. If you get in there with 1000 chips and hit a good run of cards, you're gonna take the win. Getting there is all that matters, then you can worry about first. You'd be suprised at my 1/2/3 splits.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Say I have 1200 chips, someone else has 1000 chips, someone else has 1800 chips and someone else has the remaining 4000

Three situations..

I'm BB with JJ, guy with 4000 raises allin on button. I fold. He'll likely have at least 1 overcard + i'm not putting my tournament life at risk on a worse than 2/1 shot at best.

I'm button with JJ, big stack folds, the two med/small stacks are the blinds. Obviously, I push. In fact I push with any two here. If I take in down I don't just gain the blinds, I take them off of other small stacks.

I'm button with JJ, small stack folds, big stack is the BB. If I push here I gain the blinds and nothing else. The big stack isn't going to bust in 4th barring a miracle so his chips aren't worth as much to me as the small stacks. Not only is big stack more likely to call cause he's got chips to spend, you're also gaining less if it works. Think about it..

[/ QUOTE ]

where do you play? What level?...........what time?

[RobGW]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm BB with JJ, guy with 4000 raises allin on button. I fold. He'll likely have at least 1 overcard + i'm not putting my tournament life at risk on a worse than 2/1 shot at best.


[/ QUOTE ]
You don't think the big stack could have PP lower than JJ making you a big fav? Why would he go all in with a big hand? At some point you need to play some poker and start making some good decisions based on your reads rather than just folding your way into 3rd all the time.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm button with JJ, small stack folds, big stack is the BB. If I push here I gain the blinds and nothing else. The big stack isn't going to bust in 4th barring a miracle so his chips aren't worth as much to me as the small stacks. Not only is big stack more likely to call cause he's got chips to spend, you're also gaining less if it works. Think about it..

[/ QUOTE ]

When you take chips from the big stack doesn't that get you closer to winning? You have 1200 and he has 4000. You take his blind and now have 1400 and he has 3800 a swing of $400. By letting him keep his blinds when you have JJ you are bacically saying ok, you take first and I'll fight it out with the others for 2nd or 3rd.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
are basically decided by whomever is more aggressive and whomever has the better cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

As the blinds rise, stack size rapidly becomes the most important factor here.

[RobGW]

Please post your finish distribution. I am genuinely curious as to what kind of numbers you have playing like that.

[Rolen]

I would have to disagree. The bigger the blinds, the less important stack sizes are - a big stack is very useful for bullying the table, and pointless if the blinds are so big that they HAVE to call. It then becomes a crapshoot.

I like how there is room for completely contradictory philosophies in poker, we probably both have success yet in different ways.

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]
Please post your finish distribution. I am genuinely curious as to what kind of numbers you have playing like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I would also like to see what kind of 1,2,3 numbers playing like a pussy gets you.

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
Please post your finish distribution. I am genuinely curious as to what kind of numbers you have playing like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

please do.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]

I would have to disagree. The bigger the blinds, the less important stack sizes are - a big stack is very useful for bullying the table, and pointless if the blinds are so big that they HAVE to call. It then becomes a crapshoot.


[/ QUOTE ]

Imagine the blinds are 400/800, no player ever has an edge over another when showing down a hand, and all 3 players know this. If you have 4000 and both other players have 2000, you are going to win much more often than either of the others. Agression nor good cards gave you this advantage, just pure stack advantage.

Don't get me wrong, you hit on some important aspects of bubble/ITM strategy, but I think you are underestimating/misunderstanding other aspects.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Say I have 1200 chips, someone else has 1000 chips, someone else has 1800 chips and someone else has the remaining 4000

Three situations..

I'm BB with JJ, guy with 4000 raises allin on button. I fold. He'll likely have at least 1 overcard + i'm not putting my tournament life at risk on a worse than 2/1 shot at best.


[/ QUOTE ]

Nutty. With blinds 150/300, if you put big stack on a reasonable range like 22+,A2+,K9o+,K7s+,QTs+,JTs:

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/JJ-call.PNG

This fold is horrendous.

Even if you tighten him up significantly:

44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/JJ-call-tight.PNG

Still a very bad fold.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm button with JJ, small stack folds, big stack is the BB. If I push here I gain the blinds and nothing else. The big stack isn't going to bust in 4th barring a miracle so his chips aren't worth as much to me as the small stacks. Not only is big stack more likely to call cause he's got chips to spend, you're also gaining less if it works. Think about it..

[/ QUOTE ]

Even nuttier. Put BB on any calling range you like.

How about 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs:

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/JJ-push.PNG

Folding this is horrendous.

You are undervaluing JJ, you are overestimating the gap, and you are playing in fear of the big stack. Big leaks.

eastbay

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Please post your finish distribution. I am genuinely curious as to what kind of numbers you have playing like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I would also like to see what kind of 1,2,3 numbers playing like a pussy gets you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats a bit harsh, but STT-love often is, right?

I wanted to point out that its very likely the sample size of these results will stop them from helping us here.

[davehwm]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t850)
MP (t1117)
Button (t380)
SB (t633)
BB (t5020)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Hero...?

[Rolen]

I am taking these off of Hoods' SNG tracker, which unfortunately provides only a bar graph so these figures aren't exact, but are accurate to the nearest %

1: 14%
2: 11%
3: 15%
4: 7%
5: 14%
6: 12%
7: 9%
8: 7%
9: 8%
9: 3%

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Please post your finish distribution. I am genuinely curious as to what kind of numbers you have playing like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I would also like to see what kind of 1,2,3 numbers playing like a pussy gets you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats a bit harsh, but STT-love often is, right?

I wanted to point out that its very likely the sample size of these results will stop them from helping us here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dunnoooo

see his other post about having 26% roi or something to that effect over 1500 tournies...

[willie]

maybe he's onto something..

with only a TERRIBLE months data, my 4th finishes are 14%

1 13
2 11
3 12
4 14
5 15


as i've said, a REALLY bad month.

---and as you can see i'm hyperaggressive from 5th in...

[Rolen]

Fold for me. If the blinds were 150/300 I would probably push, but there's plenty of time left here

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t850)
MP (t1117)
Button (t380)
SB (t633)
BB (t5020)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Hero...?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pushes. If you bust then oh well, if you double up, then oh well too.

Want to know a secret? I'd say that 75% or more of the all-ins of 10-15xBB on Level 4 are mid to low pocket pairs. If you don't believe me, pay attention to those raises from now on and you'll see that most people are scared as hell of those hands and don't know what to do.

[davehwm]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushes. If you bust then oh well, if you double up, then oh well too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I pushed. This just seems like a hand, judging by Rolen's posts, that he would fold - that's why I posted it.

[EverettKings]

This might be found by a simple search, but where did you get these "sng power tools"?

And if you wrote them, care to elaborate on how the calculations are done, or point me to a thread where this has already been covered (not trying to waste your time)?

-Kings

[Rolen]

Well I know i'm not perfect /images/graemlins/grin.gif

..I prefer to play against the small stacks. I've done this far too many times, only to double up and bust 4th anyway. I'll take a 50/50 against a small stack for 3rd place (+ possible 1st/2nd) over a 66/33 against a big stack for some more virtual chips that don't mean anything yet any day.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
This might be found by a simple search, but where did you get these "sng power tools"?

And if you wrote them, care to elaborate on how the calculations are done, or point me to a thread where this has already been covered (not trying to waste your time)?

-Kings

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.sitngo-analyzer.com/phpBB2/viewforum.php?f=1

dethgrind's web page is a good reference: http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/lesson.html

eastbay

[Rolen]

Result?

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
Result?

[/ QUOTE ]

insignificant.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I know i'm not perfect /images/graemlins/grin.gif

..I prefer to play against the small stacks. I've done this far too many times, only to double up and bust 4th anyway. I'll take a 50/50 against a small stack for 3rd place (+ possible 1st/2nd) over a 66/33 against a big stack for some more virtual chips that don't mean anything yet any day.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what everyone's trying to point out is that this strategy *might* work at the 20's (I've probably played less than 10 20's FWIW), but once you move up you're missing out on the only edges, much less a HUGE edge here, that you'll get. There's many times on the bubble that I'm happy to take 60/40 shots because sometimes that's all you have to settle for. It's a pain in the *** playing L:5 and on when there's 9 players still there and L:6 with like 7. No matter what your stacks are at, you're going to have to push a lot of small edges to be able to be ITM, much less 1st.

[Rolen]

Why are you eager to push your money in here?! You've got to get through five hands, any one of whom can put a great big dent in your stack and are only likely to call if they have you either dominated or 50/50, and if you've got some sense you want to avoid both. The reward for taking this risk? THAT'S what's insignificant. Later on when the blinds are doubled you can do this in the SB with any hand you like and your risk/reward will be much, much better.

[davehwm]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you eager to push your money in here?! You've got to get through five hands, any one of whom can put a great big dent in your stack and are only likely to call if they have you either dominated or 50/50, and if you've got some sense you want to avoid both. The reward for taking this risk? THAT'S what's insignificant. Later on when the blinds are doubled you can do this in the SB with any hand you like and your risk/reward will be much, much better.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's really close - I'd be interested to hear what others have to say.

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
Later on when the blinds are doubled you can do this

[/ QUOTE ]

as in when you have 650 left after posting the next 2 hands and surrendering your blinds a la your weak tight style?

good, now you have 650 left to push w/ the biggest stack still has around 5k, you have 3.5x the BB.

you will have a greater risk/ reward, but much less folding equity since the giganto stack will have to call NOTHING out of his stack being laid a little over 2-1 to call your push.

i don't think pushin w/ 88 is that bad of a play here, getting ground down and going out on your knees is worse imo.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well I know i'm not perfect /images/graemlins/grin.gif

..I prefer to play against the small stacks. I've done this far too many times, only to double up and bust 4th anyway. I'll take a 50/50 against a small stack for 3rd place (+ possible 1st/2nd) over a 66/33 against a big stack for some more virtual chips that don't mean anything yet any day.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what everyone's trying to point out is that this strategy *might* work at the 20's (I've probably played less than 10 20's FWIW), but once you move up you're missing out on the only edges, much less a HUGE edge here, that you'll get. There's many times on the bubble that I'm happy to take 60/40 shots because sometimes that's all you have to settle for. It's a pain in the *** playing L:5 and on when there's 9 players still there and L:6 with like 7. No matter what your stacks are at, you're going to have to push a lot of small edges to be able to be ITM, much less 1st.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you said "might"...and I dont play on party...but i dont think this strategy works anywhere let alone at the 20s...i think he has had a good run despite these leaks and correlates this play to a positive ROI.