Value call?

[EverettKings]

20+2 STT on party, no reads. Call me a station but this was a bit weird...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t1390)
Button (t810)
SB (t435)
BB (t1630)
UTG (t840)
UTG+1 (t240)
Hero (t980)
MP2 (t1675)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t90</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t90, SB calls t75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t300) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t145</font>, Button calls t145, SB calls t145.

Turn: (t735) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (t735) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets t200</font>, SB folds, Hero calls t200.

It felt like a fishy call, but I could see a variety of hands making that smallish bet on the river, including small pocket pairs (88 ish), missed big cards (AK/AT), as well as made hands like KQ, AJ, QJ, etc. But getting 4.5:1 I didn't want to let a position bluff get me out so easily. As far as stack concerns go, I'd have 750 if I folded and 550 if I called and lost, but 1700 if I won.

Analysis on all streets welcome. But FWIW I usually raise TT (and JJ) to 120 or 150 preflop here, but just felt like 3 BBs this time.

-Kings

[TheUsher]

QJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif? I don't like the PF raise, the flop bet is decent enough and the river check/call is iffy. Even with the odds they gave I'd check/fold.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
JT or QJ ? I don't like the PF raise, the flop bet is decent enough and the river check/call is iffy. Even with the odds they gave I'd check/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't like raising TT preflop in a 20+2 from MP? Are you serious?

And JTh doesn't make any sense. He had nothing on the flop. QJ of any kind (hearts or not) would make sense though

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
JT or QJ ? I don't like the PF raise, the flop bet is decent enough and the river check/call is iffy. Even with the odds they gave I'd check/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't like raising TT preflop in a 20+2 from MP? Are you serious?

And JTh doesn't make any sense. He had nothing on the flop. QJ of any kind (hearts or not) would make sense though

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, wasn't paying attention fully when I posted this. The not raising TT part was correct but the JT /images/graemlins/heart.gif should be edited out as you're right. Either way, no set, no bet for me. ESPECIALLY after they both call the flop bet.

[MSUcougar]

I'm guessing he's got either a weak Q or Axs for missed flush draw...

Depending on if I have any sort of read or not, I might make that call as well but I think you're likely losing 50%+ of the time...

edit: nevermind... missed flush draw doesn't make any sense... disregard that /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[The Yugoslavian]

I don't value call or value raise my nuts here.....namely b/c YOU DON'T HAVE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE NUTS.

Let this one go...it's not worth it for you.

Yugoslav
Who would, however, most likely get disqualified for urinating on the table.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're likely losing 50%+ of the time...

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. But am I losing this more than 900/1100 or 82% of the time? That's the question.

-Kings

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't value call or value raise my nuts here.....namely b/c YOU DON'T HAVE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE NUTS.

Let this one go...it's not worth it for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I'm fully aware that I'm not close to the nuts. I think you're missing the point. If you vote fold, I'd love an explanation that explains why I'm behind more than 82% of the time here. You can take a pee break first, just not on my table /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

-Kings

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]

Oops, wasn't paying attention fully when I posted this. The not raising TT part was correct but the JT should be edited out as you're right. Either way, no set, no bet for me. ESPECIALLY after they both call the flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT is too damn powerful in my mind for a "no set no bet" philosophy. Is it so much worse than JJ for you that you switch from treating it like a premium to treating it like 22? There's an argument to be made for limping TT, but I think it better applies at higher stakes. I'd love to hear more of your thoughts though.

-Kings

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't value call or value raise my nuts here.....namely b/c YOU DON'T HAVE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE NUTS.

Let this one go...it's not worth it for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I'm fully aware that I'm not close to the nuts. I think you're missing the point. If you vote fold, I'd love an explanation that explains why I'm behind more than 82% of the time here. You can take a pee break first, just not on my table /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

-Kings

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay.....looks like you missed my joke to begin with, which is fine.....in all seriousness, here goes:

Preflop: I call.....I fold if I am going to play it the way you seem to plan to.

Flop: Yeah, I fold here too (or check/fold).

Turn: Again....I fold

River: I fold to this bet.....are you behind more than 82% of the time? Nope....you don't have to be though.

Yugoslav
PS If I have more chips and make it to the river in this situation, I call...

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it so much worse than JJ for you that you switch from treating it like a premium to treating it like 22?


[/ QUOTE ]

Ummmm, yeah. JJ is far from a premium on level 2 of a $22 STT.

[ QUOTE ]

There's an argument to be made for limping TT, but I think it better applies at higher stakes.


[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting, but I'd say if there is an argument to be made, it's just the opposite...

[ QUOTE ]

I'd love to hear more of your thoughts though.
-Kings

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I dunno about his but mine is that the best way to play for all of your opponents chips with TT is by limping. It also, interestingly enough, is the best way to maximize your survival and keep your risk/reward ratio nice and hefty...

Yugoslav

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Oops, wasn't paying attention fully when I posted this. The not raising TT part was correct but the JT should be edited out as you're right. Either way, no set, no bet for me. ESPECIALLY after they both call the flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT is too damn powerful in my mind for a "no set no bet" philosophy. Is it so much worse than JJ for you that you switch from treating it like a premium to treating it like 22? There's an argument to be made for limping TT, but I think it better applies at higher stakes. I'd love to hear more of your thoughts though.

-Kings

[/ QUOTE ]

Just saying how I'd play it. I play the 55's on Party, far from the highest stakes but I'll take my chances playing it this way on Level 2.

[EverettKings]

Well either I'm high, you're high, or we have some seriously disparate views of Sit n Gos (which is great actually).

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: I call.....I fold if I am going to play it the way you seem to plan to.


[/ QUOTE ]
Um, how exactly is that? And why is it bad? I kind of want the 20+2 kids to play their 66/77/88 for a raise preflop.
[ QUOTE ]

Flop: Yeah, I fold here too (or check/fold).


[/ QUOTE ]
Do you like folding? You can take down a ~300 chip pot right now with a simple continuation bet. I was planning to shut down if the flop bet didn't end the hand.
[ QUOTE ]

Turn: Again....I fold


[/ QUOTE ]
I was, indeed, in check/fold mode
[ QUOTE ]

River: I fold to this bet.....are you behind more than 82% of the time? Nope....you don't have to be though.


[/ QUOTE ]
Please explain to me why you're making a -EV play here. The pot odds lay me 4.5:1, so if more than 1 in 5.5 times I'm ahead, I should play. So If I'm ahead more than 18% (in other words, behind less than 82%) it's a call. I don't think chip EV differs from money EV at this point, and I would love to have a 1700 chip stack.

-Kings

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think chip EV differs from money EV at this point, and I would love to have a 1700 chip stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

But it does. A very simple example:
800 chips (9 even opponents) = 0.1 EV.
1600 chips (8 even opponents) = 0.1844.

Also, you will find that limping with TT in this spot isn't a minority view here, but rather widely accepted. The tighter posters limp JJ here too. The weak-tightness of the early stages of a SNG is hard to accept as a good thing at first.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think chip EV differs from money EV at this point

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it does. This is one of the reasons why you need to win more than 18% of the time on the river here....there are other reasons as well. One of which is that those 200 chips are quite valuable for having any FE later on when the blinds are significant.

However, you shouldn't get to the river with a pot that big given your pre-flop hand and everything that has happened.

I'd love to have 1700 chips here too, but I'm not willing to hemmorage chips in order to try and acheive this goal...

Yugoslav

[davehwm]

I limp with TT and JJ on Level 1/2 of the $11s - am I crazy?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I limp with TT and JJ on Level 1/2 of the $11s - am I crazy?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so....but that other guy probably thinks you're 'high,' /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Yugoslav

[nokona13]

[ QUOTE ]
Well either I'm high, you're high, or we have some seriously disparate views of Sit n Gos (which is great actually).

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: I call.....I fold if I am going to play it the way you seem to plan to.


[/ QUOTE ]
Um, how exactly is that? And why is it bad? I kind of want the 20+2 kids to play their 66/77/88 for a raise preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but what are the odds someone gives you their stack with 77 vs. the odds of someone taking your stack (or half of it) with some garbage like KJo when you push the betting and call their river bets while assuming they're a monkey with 77? That's the key here. As Yugo pointed out, even if you thought it was a 50/50 proposition between your strategy gaining lots of chips or losing extra chips, those extra chips are less valuable in terms of $EV, and the chips you lose are VERY valuable as folding equity later. With 8 still in, I'm limping TT except maybe with folds to the button or SB. I'm waiting until 5-6 left before I'm raising in LMP and LP, unless of course there's 8 left in level 5 or something and I'm in pushie pushie mode...

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: Yeah, I fold here too (or check/fold).


[/ QUOTE ]
Do you like folding? You can take down a ~300 chip pot right now with a simple continuation bet. I was planning to shut down if the flop bet didn't end the hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Another key point noone's brought up yet, is that if you plan on being aggressive with a single overcard flop (not necessarily a bad idea), then you NEED to not raise it. Your bet here looks pretty weak, unless you always bet slightly less than half the pot. You want to be able to make a strong continuation bet without jeopardizing your tournament. If you'd limped and the pot was ~100, then you could make a much stronger continuation bet for just 75-85 chips.

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

River: I fold to this bet.....are you behind more than 82% of the time? Nope....you don't have to be though.


[/ QUOTE ]
Please explain to me why you're making a -EV play here. The pot odds lay me 4.5:1, so if more than 1 in 5.5 times I'm ahead, I should play. So If I'm ahead more than 18% (in other words, behind less than 82%) it's a call. I don't think chip EV differs from money EV at this point, and I would love to have a 1700 chip stack.

-Kings

[/ QUOTE ]

People (including me!!) tend to forget that if you're smart there are usually ways to take pots uncontested on the flop or to just steal blinds later, and there's no reason to push marginal hands hard in a STT. Hold onto your 750 chips and take some blinds away. I get frustrated too when I see someone call huge bets with a missed AK and it turns out the other guy was bluffing with A9 or something, but looking for that kind of play to make your money is not the most profitable way to play SNGs.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
I don't think chip EV differs from money EV at this point, and I would love to have a 1700 chip stack.



But it does. A very simple example:
800 chips (9 even opponents) = 0.1 EV.
1600 chips (8 even opponents) = 0.1844.

Also, you will find that limping with TT in this spot isn't a minority view here, but rather widely accepted. The tighter posters limp JJ here too. The weak-tightness of the early stages of a SNG is hard to accept as a good thing at first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmm. That miiiight be one of the problems with my SNG game: failure to correctly adjust to the weak-tightness of the early stages. Of course, there are always some LAGs, but they usually show their face pretty quickly (and I rather enjoy being 5 handed in level 1 /images/graemlins/laugh.gif). I can see the argument for playing a small pot unless you hit big.

How would you play a hand like AKo in the early stages? And what if you have JJ/TT in late position as opposed to EP/MP?

-Kings

[wiggs73]

I think you played this hand with the mentality of a limit ring game player. Raise pre-flop with this hand, bet the flop, call the river. That sounds good.

However, as others have discussed, you have to have a complete different approach to SNGs and this approach does include weak-tight play in early levels. Limping / playing for set value is fine because you stand to safely get a lot of chips for a small initial investment. However, it's too early to try to play this sort of hand strongly. Later, when blinds are significant, go ahead and raise and follow it with a continuation bet. But this early in the tournament (and with this many people at the table) you stand a substantial chance of getting your raise called by less-than-premium hands that include overcards. Even though your raise is 'standard', ie 3x the bb, it still won't scare away as many hands as you need it to in order to make raising profitable - this makes the Q and J significant. Chances are the bettor has one of the two.

I think limping and playing for set value is the best play here. A case can be made for raising JJ, though a case can also be made for limping. QQ-AA, raise, but more than 3x BB this early.

[Jason Strasser]

Hi everett,

Raising pf is OK, I tend to limp more than I raise here, but my reasoning is because I want to be able to profitable see a flop against a hand that can reraise me. For example, I make it 90, guy with AA makes it 250, I must fold. But limping there is a good chance I can flop a set and take out AA. Plus limping with TT is good if you can play disciplined postflop. I have better luck limping here, and raising when the blinds get to 25/50, because at that point I care more about stealing blinds and I really wont be able to play pp's for set value.

Anyhow, to the actual hand. Check the flop. Sure, you will lose a smaller pot more often because some player with overcards might catch up, but at this point in a 3-way pot, I'd feel much better about where I stood if I checked the flop. Also, you'll tend to get lots more action from hands you are ahead of by checking the flop (lower PP, A5 type hands). If someone leads into you on the turn you can decide what to do there.

Anyhow, calling yugo high for suggesting to limp TT here is plain silly. There is a very good argument to be made that limping here is the best option.

-Jason

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
It felt like a fishy call, but I could see a variety of hands making that smallish bet on the river, including small pocket pairs (88 ish), missed big cards (AK/AT), as well as made hands like KQ, AJ, QJ, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting 200 with 88 would've been really, really stupid. He's only going to get called by a better hand, and no better hand is going to fold (with the rare exception of 99/TT).

There are no real draws on the flop, so I have no idea why he would call the flop bet without a Q or a pair. Maybe a loose call with AJ/AT/A5/A4/A2 since your bet wasn't big.

As stated above, betting a small pair on the river is stupid. I suppose he could've played JJ like this.

This makes no sense, so I guess I'd have to call.