10-16-2002, 09:33 PM
I am usually very impressed with the articles of Jim Brier, but I was somewhat disappointed with his latest offering "Folding on the river". Maybe this has something to do with his liking of keeping honest. ;-)
My guess is that this shows how river play (particularly folding) is so opponent-dependant, that it cannot be generalized.
Here goes parts of the article, and some comments from me:
Hand No. 2 ($10-$20 game): You are in the cutoff seat with the 9h8h. Four players limp in, you limp, and the small blind limps. There is $70 in the pot and seven players. The flop is 9c7c3d, giving you top pair, weak kicker. The small blind checks, the big blind bets, and two players call to you. There is $100 in the pot and it costs you $10 to call, so your pot odds are 10-to-1. If someone has a bigger 9, you are playing three outs, which is a 15-to-1 shot. But no one may have a bigger 9. This flop has a two-flush with two cards connected, so your three opponents could be on draws. You also have some backdoor-straight possibilities. Raising might drive out only the small blind at this point, since you have three opponents already committed. You decide to just call, and the small blind calls. There is $120 in the pot and five players. The turn is the Ah. Everyone checks. The river is the Ad. The small blind checks, the big blind bets, and it is folded to you. What should you do?
Answer: Call. It is too easy for the bettor to have a busted draw. If not, he might have bet the turn with a made hand. There is $140 in the pot and it costs you $20, so you are getting 7-to-1 on your call. The small blind behind you who checked is a minor concern."
I find it dubious that someone would try to bluff at a pot where the river pairs the turned Ace, when it was checked around. My guess here is a slowplayed set on the turn (anticipating action when the Ace fell) - or a value bet with a strong 9 or a flopped overpair. It is very close.
"Hand No. 4 ($15-$30 game): You are in the big blind with the Jd8c. An early-position player and the cutoff limp in, so you take a free play. There is $55 in the pot and three players. The flop is JsJc9s, giving you trip jacks. You bet and both opponents call. There is $100 in the pot. The turn is the 7d. You bet and both opponents call. There is $190 in the pot. The river is the 6s. You check, the early-position player bets, and the cutoff folds. What should you do?
Answer: Call. You are probably beat by a made flush at the river, but with $220 in the pot, you have to catch a worse hand bluffing only about one time in seven to show a profit. There are numerous busted straight draws possible with Q-10, Q-8, K-Q, and so forth."
With the bet coming from a player in the middle here, I think this is extremely close and I lean towards a fold. Trips is nice of course, but this situation suggests a fold is in order. Who would stick in with the Q-8 gutshot draw on this board in this small, unraised pot? Even K-Q has nothing more than a borderline call on the flop in this small, unraised pot. No, if the flush is not out, at least a better Jack will somehow be in there (usually it will be the flush of course). The only way this hand can win, is if both hold the Q-T or one holds the Q-T and the other is poorly calling along with an 8, a pocket pair or the K-Q. Even in this fairly rare setting, the river won't always be bluffed, particularly from the player in the middle.
"Hand No. 5 ($30-$60 game): You are in the small blind with the 9d8d. A middle-position player opens with a raise, the button calls, you call, and the big blind folds. There is $210 in the pot and three players. The flop is AdAc10d, giving you a flush draw. You bet and both opponents call. There is $300 in the pot. The turn is the 6s, giving you a gutshot-straight draw as well as your flush draw. You bet, the middle-position player raises, and the button cold-calls. You make a very dubious call. It seems like the middle-position player raised preflop with an ace in his hand. Since you figure his most likely ace would be A-K, A-Q, or A-J, you decide to call for another $60 with $600 in the pot. The problem is that the button is cold-calling, which means he could be on a bigger flush draw or have a big hand himself. There is $660 in the pot. The river is the 7d, giving you a flush. You bet, the middle-position player raises, and the button folds. What should you do?
Answer: Fold. It is obvious that the middle-position player has a full house. You knew he probably had at least trip aces when he raised your turn bet with a third player in the hand. His raising a second time now at the river can only mean he is full, given the fact that the button was still in the hand and you were leading into him when the flush card came at the river. Given that you elected to bet the river, you should now fold."
The previous action shouldn't be discussed right, but I think this hand is poorly played. The flop semi-bluff is poor on this flop, both since the draw is weak, it is unlikely to succeed and you could get stuck for more bets, trying to complete the draw. Check-raising the flop or smooth-calling the flop in order to set up a bluff on the fourth street at least gives the bluff a better chance to succeed (a big pair will usually just call down here against what appears to be a habitual semi-bluffer). The turn card makes this hand semi-playable, and if I was ready to call a raise, I would now go into check-call mode (and fold to a bet and a raise).
The river play is dubious. The bet/fold strategy can be applied, but I think this situation is wrong for it. A turn raisor will bet the river here extremely often, with big trips or better (he is not going to have anything worse, is he?). AK, AQ bets the river here. Why bet? The only reason I can see is to get an over-aggressive player to raise his trips and get two bets out of him (which is a poor reason). But fold to the raise? Admittedly, you are almost certainly beat, but the way you have played this hand, I feel some kind of "closure is needed". Folding here just completes the absurd play. I even think there is a big enough chance to win the pot in itself, but for later hands, calling is probably worth it, even if you know you are donating the bet. You don't want to have people raising your marginal river bets even more often. It is hugely player dependant, but some would say "he can't have played a flush-draw THIS poorly (then it HAS to be specifically with the gutshot), he must have the nuts to re-raise (and if he has that, it is strangely played too), heck I'll throw in another raise with my A-K." Others will raise because they are in euphoric state over having flopped trips with this A-K or A-Q which they are most accustomed to chasing with overcards after the flop.
"Hand No. 6 ($15-$30 game): You are in middle position with the Jd9d. An early-position player and another middle-position player limp in. You limp in, as do the button and the small blind. There is $90 in the pot and six players in the hand. The flop is Qc7d3s, missing you completely except for a backdoor-flush draw. Everyone checks. The turn is the Jh, giving you a pair. It is checked to you, and you bet. Only the other middle-position player in front of you calls. There is $150 in the pot and two players. The river is the 10s. Your opponent bets. What should you do?
Answer: Call. What hand did your opponent make with the 10? Specifically, 9-8 or K-9 for a straight? It is doubtful that he has A-K because he limped in preflop. Could he have two pair? But Q-10, J-10, and Q-J seem unlikely given his lack of betting on the flop and turn. 10-7 or 10-3? This would be a bizarre hand-holding for him. There is enough doubt here to warrant checking his oil."
Hmm. So what hand does he figure to have called with on the turn? And what about the bet on that relative "blank" on the river. What is he hoping to make you fold that he can't beat? We must assume he had SOMETHING in order to call the turn. If he had a straight draw, he probably got there, if he had a pair, what pair is he having with whom he expects you to fold a better hand to this river?
My guess is that he held either the unlikely AK, the more likely K9 (making a loose call with "probably seven outs"), the frustration call on the turn with TT, having "survived" the flopped Queen (checked around), only to see the turned Jack, calling to "check you up" and rivering a set with which he thinks he cannot check-raise, correctly assuming you have a marginal hand with which you will probably not bet the river.
My most likely guess, however, is clearly the JT, which far from everybody would bet on the turn here.
A call here just doesn't "feel" right. I think he has the goods, but hands like these are very player dependant.
Comments welcome.
lars
My guess is that this shows how river play (particularly folding) is so opponent-dependant, that it cannot be generalized.
Here goes parts of the article, and some comments from me:
Hand No. 2 ($10-$20 game): You are in the cutoff seat with the 9h8h. Four players limp in, you limp, and the small blind limps. There is $70 in the pot and seven players. The flop is 9c7c3d, giving you top pair, weak kicker. The small blind checks, the big blind bets, and two players call to you. There is $100 in the pot and it costs you $10 to call, so your pot odds are 10-to-1. If someone has a bigger 9, you are playing three outs, which is a 15-to-1 shot. But no one may have a bigger 9. This flop has a two-flush with two cards connected, so your three opponents could be on draws. You also have some backdoor-straight possibilities. Raising might drive out only the small blind at this point, since you have three opponents already committed. You decide to just call, and the small blind calls. There is $120 in the pot and five players. The turn is the Ah. Everyone checks. The river is the Ad. The small blind checks, the big blind bets, and it is folded to you. What should you do?
Answer: Call. It is too easy for the bettor to have a busted draw. If not, he might have bet the turn with a made hand. There is $140 in the pot and it costs you $20, so you are getting 7-to-1 on your call. The small blind behind you who checked is a minor concern."
I find it dubious that someone would try to bluff at a pot where the river pairs the turned Ace, when it was checked around. My guess here is a slowplayed set on the turn (anticipating action when the Ace fell) - or a value bet with a strong 9 or a flopped overpair. It is very close.
"Hand No. 4 ($15-$30 game): You are in the big blind with the Jd8c. An early-position player and the cutoff limp in, so you take a free play. There is $55 in the pot and three players. The flop is JsJc9s, giving you trip jacks. You bet and both opponents call. There is $100 in the pot. The turn is the 7d. You bet and both opponents call. There is $190 in the pot. The river is the 6s. You check, the early-position player bets, and the cutoff folds. What should you do?
Answer: Call. You are probably beat by a made flush at the river, but with $220 in the pot, you have to catch a worse hand bluffing only about one time in seven to show a profit. There are numerous busted straight draws possible with Q-10, Q-8, K-Q, and so forth."
With the bet coming from a player in the middle here, I think this is extremely close and I lean towards a fold. Trips is nice of course, but this situation suggests a fold is in order. Who would stick in with the Q-8 gutshot draw on this board in this small, unraised pot? Even K-Q has nothing more than a borderline call on the flop in this small, unraised pot. No, if the flush is not out, at least a better Jack will somehow be in there (usually it will be the flush of course). The only way this hand can win, is if both hold the Q-T or one holds the Q-T and the other is poorly calling along with an 8, a pocket pair or the K-Q. Even in this fairly rare setting, the river won't always be bluffed, particularly from the player in the middle.
"Hand No. 5 ($30-$60 game): You are in the small blind with the 9d8d. A middle-position player opens with a raise, the button calls, you call, and the big blind folds. There is $210 in the pot and three players. The flop is AdAc10d, giving you a flush draw. You bet and both opponents call. There is $300 in the pot. The turn is the 6s, giving you a gutshot-straight draw as well as your flush draw. You bet, the middle-position player raises, and the button cold-calls. You make a very dubious call. It seems like the middle-position player raised preflop with an ace in his hand. Since you figure his most likely ace would be A-K, A-Q, or A-J, you decide to call for another $60 with $600 in the pot. The problem is that the button is cold-calling, which means he could be on a bigger flush draw or have a big hand himself. There is $660 in the pot. The river is the 7d, giving you a flush. You bet, the middle-position player raises, and the button folds. What should you do?
Answer: Fold. It is obvious that the middle-position player has a full house. You knew he probably had at least trip aces when he raised your turn bet with a third player in the hand. His raising a second time now at the river can only mean he is full, given the fact that the button was still in the hand and you were leading into him when the flush card came at the river. Given that you elected to bet the river, you should now fold."
The previous action shouldn't be discussed right, but I think this hand is poorly played. The flop semi-bluff is poor on this flop, both since the draw is weak, it is unlikely to succeed and you could get stuck for more bets, trying to complete the draw. Check-raising the flop or smooth-calling the flop in order to set up a bluff on the fourth street at least gives the bluff a better chance to succeed (a big pair will usually just call down here against what appears to be a habitual semi-bluffer). The turn card makes this hand semi-playable, and if I was ready to call a raise, I would now go into check-call mode (and fold to a bet and a raise).
The river play is dubious. The bet/fold strategy can be applied, but I think this situation is wrong for it. A turn raisor will bet the river here extremely often, with big trips or better (he is not going to have anything worse, is he?). AK, AQ bets the river here. Why bet? The only reason I can see is to get an over-aggressive player to raise his trips and get two bets out of him (which is a poor reason). But fold to the raise? Admittedly, you are almost certainly beat, but the way you have played this hand, I feel some kind of "closure is needed". Folding here just completes the absurd play. I even think there is a big enough chance to win the pot in itself, but for later hands, calling is probably worth it, even if you know you are donating the bet. You don't want to have people raising your marginal river bets even more often. It is hugely player dependant, but some would say "he can't have played a flush-draw THIS poorly (then it HAS to be specifically with the gutshot), he must have the nuts to re-raise (and if he has that, it is strangely played too), heck I'll throw in another raise with my A-K." Others will raise because they are in euphoric state over having flopped trips with this A-K or A-Q which they are most accustomed to chasing with overcards after the flop.
"Hand No. 6 ($15-$30 game): You are in middle position with the Jd9d. An early-position player and another middle-position player limp in. You limp in, as do the button and the small blind. There is $90 in the pot and six players in the hand. The flop is Qc7d3s, missing you completely except for a backdoor-flush draw. Everyone checks. The turn is the Jh, giving you a pair. It is checked to you, and you bet. Only the other middle-position player in front of you calls. There is $150 in the pot and two players. The river is the 10s. Your opponent bets. What should you do?
Answer: Call. What hand did your opponent make with the 10? Specifically, 9-8 or K-9 for a straight? It is doubtful that he has A-K because he limped in preflop. Could he have two pair? But Q-10, J-10, and Q-J seem unlikely given his lack of betting on the flop and turn. 10-7 or 10-3? This would be a bizarre hand-holding for him. There is enough doubt here to warrant checking his oil."
Hmm. So what hand does he figure to have called with on the turn? And what about the bet on that relative "blank" on the river. What is he hoping to make you fold that he can't beat? We must assume he had SOMETHING in order to call the turn. If he had a straight draw, he probably got there, if he had a pair, what pair is he having with whom he expects you to fold a better hand to this river?
My guess is that he held either the unlikely AK, the more likely K9 (making a loose call with "probably seven outs"), the frustration call on the turn with TT, having "survived" the flopped Queen (checked around), only to see the turned Jack, calling to "check you up" and rivering a set with which he thinks he cannot check-raise, correctly assuming you have a marginal hand with which you will probably not bet the river.
My most likely guess, however, is clearly the JT, which far from everybody would bet on the turn here.
A call here just doesn't "feel" right. I think he has the goods, but hands like these are very player dependant.
Comments welcome.
lars