Aces

[Scotch78]

SB is one of those guys who sits down with just $50. He's new to the table, so all I can say is he's probably loose and maybe passive.

MP is 19/12/30/2.5 over 500 hands. He's also new to the table, so I don't know much. From the stats I'm guessing he has some weak-tight tendencies, but my only table read contradicts this a little (it was a strong blind defense).

MP's passivity on the flop and turn worries me. It's possible he has something like KJs or AJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif, but I think he would've tried to protect his hand somewhere with a pair. So on the river I figure he has a busted draw or set turned full house.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP (TAG) 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (LP?) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP (TAG) calls, SB (LP?) calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
LP? checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, TAG calls, LP? calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
LP? checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, TAG calls, LP? calls.

River: (11 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
LP? checks, Hero checks

Scott

[Rubeskies]

Maybe I'm missing something but this looks like an easy value bet.

The TAG probably has something like AQs or KQs, maybe JJ and doesn't think he's ahead and is just trying to catch or get to showdown. Maybe has AK and thinks he's splitting. The other dude could have anything.

[Scotch78]

I don't think he has top pair, but am I really losing that much money if he does? I'm definitely losing money if he has JJ or would call with AK, but he will probably bet his queens a good percentage of the time.

Scott

edit: I fully expect to get raised when I'm behind, so keep in mind that I'm risking two.

[Rubeskies]

Right, but the overlay you're getting with the other guy in there means you sometimes win two bets when both call with worse hands, win one bet (when one calls with a worse hand) and sometimes you will get raised and have to call and lose two bets. But I think you get raised far fewer times than the other two scenarios given the action and sometimes you'll get raised by a worse hand and will win two sometimes four bets. It won't happen often but I've seen crazier river bluffs/value raises.

If the other poor player (called 2.5 cold from the SB) wasn't in there, then you'd certainly have a much stronger case.

[Danenania]

Easy easy river bet. MP either has JJ or AK a big majority of the time, maybe KQ sometimes as well.

[Scotch78]

I hear ya. This is the stuff that's really messing with my head right now. It's easy to avoid results oriented thinking when you're winning, or when the results contradict your judgment, but I'm getting killed at a new limit and actually saving bets in these situations more often than not, so I need you guys to keep me straight.

Scott