5 left, blind steal flops TP

[deathpotato]

Level 5, I am barely big stack with ~2500. I raise to 2.5BB 1 off the button with Qs7s, planning to ditch it to a reraise obviously. I've been stealing aggressively and building a stack. Good player in BB (~1800 before posting) calls. Flop comes TJQ rainbow, one spade. BB pushes his last 1300, I call.

Given that BB is a good aggressive player, what can you see him making this stop-and-go with? I put him on 2nd pair or better, any K, maybe A9, or a flat out steal (unlikely, this is far from a great board to stop-and-go with nothing). Getting 2:1 on my money, this is an easy call, right?

[hitdanutz]

Not a clear decision. You said he's a solid player with perhaps 2 pair, thus it's a tough call. If he's pushed previously on several occassions I'd call, otherwise fold and live to play another hand. You're in decent chip position in the bubble and should play a bit tighter shooting for ITM.

On the other hand, he's clearly got you pegged as aggressive given your steals, so he may push with less. All depends on how much his bet is based on reading you.

[ForumBot]

Fold

[bruce]

I would bet enough BTF without putting myself in mortal danger
if I am called. I don't believe you bet enough BTF to dissuade
him from calling. I think you need to bet enough to make him
realize that if he calls they are all going in on the flop.
I don't want to see a flop with Q7 so I will do everything
in my power to prevent this.

Having said that playing online, unless I know my opponent real well, you won't see me fold top pair with three to a flush headsup too many times. There are way too many hands
that you are ahead of that an astute player will lead out trying to bet you off your hand.

Bruce

[Pokerscott]

My read on the situation:

-You gave him odds to call with just about anything PF so I would put him on a wide range of hands if he is good.

-Again if he is good, he knows you both are unlikely to pair up the flop. Odds of pairing up on the flop are about 1 in 3 with two unmatched cards. If he pairs up on the flop, the odds you did also are even lower (~1 in 5).

-If I was him, I would likely push bottom pair, but definitely push middle or top pair. There is also a reasonable chance he would push with nothing knowing you likely missed.

-Given all of that /images/graemlins/smile.gif , I think he pushes with many more hands that you have beat than have you beat, so I call. I think it is an easy call btw.

Pokerscott

[deathpotato]

Hm, you may be right about the size of the PF raise, but it's been my habit in general to decrease my raises to between 2.5BB and 3 on level 5. I've generally been having good success with this, ie I don't see much of a difference between the responses to the 2.5 and 3BB raises. However, you and pokerscott do bring up a good point in that he has odds to call hoping to hit a pair (although I think it's wrong to do so with a lot of hands). I may have been wimping out and leaning more towards the 2.5BB end of the spectrum, and this player might have picked up on that and decided to push back.

That said, I'm not sure about the suggestion of a much larger, ie pot committing, raise. If I'm getting you, you're saying to raise enough so that if he comes over the top I must call, and if he calls he must push the flop and I (presumably) have to call. My idea in keeping the PFR smallish is that I can get away from the hand if he pushes right back. If I were going to raise big I would tend to just push, but with these stacks nearing the bubble I don't really like that move, especially with Q7. I think that with 1300 behind on an 1100 pot flop he realizes that he's not getting out of this hand without pushing or folding.

In raising to 500, if he pushes I'm getting slightly worse than 2:1 to call, and can fold. Raising 600 I can still fold, but I don't really like doing it, as this player is capable of pushing on a resteal with less-than-excellent hands if he's interpreting my frequent steals as weak. Anything more than 600 and I think I have to call, getting significantly better than 2:1.

I may be misinterpreting you, but from what I understand I don't think I like a raise that commits me to this pot preflop. I can rebuild 500 or 600 chips fairly easily if he resteals, and will likely be a fairly large dog to his pushing range, so I like a raise that I can get away from.