Adjusting pot odds in bubble play

[hitdanutz]

I tighten up my play significantly in SNG's when the 10 seats shrink to 5. I tighten here because I believe the assymetrical payout of winning $ at 3rd place while busting out in 4th affects the statistics of pot odds such that one needs much better odds to commit a good portion of your chips to a given pot.

A friend that's a 30% SNG winner disagrees with this strategy, but I'm a 40% SNG winner that uses it. Our play in early rounds is similar.

Thoughts on bubble play and pot odds play decisions welcome.

[citanul]

first thing you need to do is to ditch the idea of 30% winner and 40% winner. unless you're talking about ROI instead of ITM, which is not what it seems like you are doing. your friend with the 30% win is playing wrong, if he's got long run statistics. that's a bad ITM rate. however, if you tighten up, the way you say you are, you're likely playing wrong too.


think about what happens if you're at a table full of other players who play the same way you're advocating. if you played loose and aggressive, you'd steal a ton of blinds and have a bigger chance at 1st place than your opposition.

citanul

[hitdanutz]

I was referring to 30% and 40% ITM, not ROI.

Agreed that one needs to adjust play to the competition's style, but I find I can often sit out more hands in the bubble and wait a bit while looser players bust out. I then open up my game again when ITM, but often find myself in middle or SS position. Still, ITM is ITM.

[ForumBot]

fold

[citanul]

ITM =/= ITM

1st ~= 4x(3rd)
1st ~= 2x(2nd)
2nd ~= 2x(3rd)

thus, being short stacked going into the money all the time kinda sucks.

citanul

[John Hurst]

Tightening up on the bubble is a bad idea.

- Hand values go up with 5 people at the table instead of 10.
- Blinds are larger and come around quicker thus forcing you to loosen up or be eliminated

So tightening up on the bubble is the opposite of what you want to do. Play more hands and play them more aggressively.

[willie]

and my hyper aggression has me with mostly 5th place finishes compared to any other placing....

when i DO make the money though, my 1st place finishes are a higher % than 2nd and 3rd.

i think i'm playin it right but i'm extremely aggressive on the bubble

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I was referring to 30% and 40% ITM, not ROI.

[/ QUOTE ]

30% ITM is usually a loser overall as this is what an average player should expect and will lose to the rake. 40% ITM should provide a moderate winrate, prolly about a 10-15% ROI or so.

Why would you be worrying about what a guy who is likely an overall loser tells you?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Tightening up on the bubble is a bad idea.

- Hand values go up with 5 people at the table instead of 10.
- Blinds are larger and come around quicker thus forcing you to loosen up or be eliminated

So tightening up on the bubble is the opposite of what you want to do. Play more hands and play them more aggressively.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there is a misunderstanding here, as the issue is a little bit complex. Tighten relative to what?

I think the notion that you should tighten relative to a ring game, given everything else being a constant is correct. This is due to the effect of the payout structure as mentioned by the OP.

However, should you tighten compared to 6-handed in the SnG? No. This is also correct, and seems to be the main point of this post I'm replying to.

Another point is that bubble fears will cause others to tighten, which should cause you to widen your gap significantly.

So, play should be tighter and it should also be looser. It all depends on what you're comparing to.

eastbay