Are SnG's the worst way to play with variance?

[ace_in_the_hole]

I have just completed 100 10+1 Sng's on party. I know this number means nothing but,m I currently have a negative ROI: -4%. Could it be that I am a good winnign player still or should I go back to NL ring games where I was at $3/100 hands which at least is prfitable.
What I am getting to is, for people who play these thigns for a living, is a negative ROI over 100 SnG's nothing to sneeze at or do I need to do some mroe work on my game. 4th place is my most common finish and many of these bustouts were AK vs A8 scenarios wherr the river is an 8 and so on.. I ahve never gone more than 9 days witrhout a winning day until these daMN sNg'S

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I have just completed 100 10+1 Sng's on party. I know this number means nothing but,m I currently have a negative ROI: -4%. Could it be that I am a good winnign player still or should I go back to NL ring games where I was at $3/100 hands which at least is prfitable.
What I am getting to is, for people who play these thigns for a living, is a negative ROI over 100 SnG's nothing to sneeze at or do I need to do some mroe work on my game. 4th place is my most common finish and many of these bustouts were AK vs A8 scenarios wherr the river is an 8 and so on.. I ahve never gone more than 9 days witrhout a winning day until these daMN sNg'S

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh....are you serious??!!!!

I can't even respond to this......

My head is about to asplode...

@!#%!@$#%!@# #$%^!#$@%@!# !@#$%!@#%@!#%

Yugoslav

[Rolen]

Variance is eliminated once you hit 101 SNGs. Still a ways to go yet

..Seriously, if you know you're a winning player at ring tourneys and you're not sure about SNGs, play in ring games.

[ace_in_the_hole]

Thast what I am trying to get at. Is it possible for em to ba a losing player at Sng's but a winning player at NL ring games. I knoow it IS possible but is it common?

[stupidsucker]

in short

a)100 is tiny tiny tiny sample size. I get -RoI runs for 100 sngs all the time.

b) Your game probably does need some work. Afterall you did just get started

c) Variance for SnGs is teeny weeny compared to any other form of poker I know.

If you want to learn more then read read read up on this forum. If you want to give up then there is no harm in not liking SnGs and sticking with ring games.

[ace_in_the_hole]

I just read that after 500 SnG's u have a 50% chance of knowing that your true ROI is within 5% of your actual ROI.

[BradleyT]

If you win the next 2 you play your ROI will be above 5%.

[ace_in_the_hole]

Thanks "stupidsucker" That is the answer I was looking for. I think that I am sucessful but am havign a bad run, many of my bustouts have been almost unavoidable. I plan on playing 600 Sng's in April and I think that as long as these downswings aren't across 200 Sng's I should be fine in the long run. I pay my utility bills with poke only $220/month but I am hoping to not ahve a losing month.

[SuitedSixes]

I would guess that you are playing more of a ring game style (playing suited connectors, over-valuing small pocket pairs). You need to tighten up considerably from there if you want to beat these things.

Did you read AM's "How to Beat 10+1?" That's a good start.

P.S.
Nevermind Yugo, he's still sick from the hookah.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
If you win the next 2 you play your ROI will be above 5%.

[/ QUOTE ]

there's the pudding

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
Thast what I am trying to get at. Is it possible for em to ba a losing player at Sng's but a winning player at NL ring games. I knoow it IS possible but is it common?

[/ QUOTE ]

Possible, but it seems unlikely. You need experience and understanding of specific sng situations, specifically bubble play and then shorthanded play.

I think it's generally accepted that SNGs have smaller variance than other forms of poker, but that doesn't mean that which we shall not speak of cannot happen. It does. You can still run bad.

[etgryphon]

[ QUOTE ]
If you win the next 2 you play your ROI will be above 5%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly, Win 1 and you will have + ROI.

-Gryph

[citanul]

your game clearly needs work.

as does between brain and posting sphinctor. or perhaps you just need to learn to use the search function.

in response to the question: is it possible i am a good winning player, no i doubt that very strongly that at the moment you are a "good" winning player. and well, as you have won nothing, you're not a winning player yet either.

i don't know what stakes you were making $3/100 hands at the nl, but it's likely that that is a very poor rate for that game as well. that game probably needs some work too.

citanul

[lorinda]

Your ring game stats were small enough that it would not surprise me at all if you had initial problems in SNGs.

Lori

[Mr_J]

"or do I need to do some mroe work on my game"

Everyone's game can improve. It's silly not to work on your game unless you are happy with where you are at.

[assron]

agreed w/ citanul, 3/100 isnt very good for NL ring on party.

[lorinda]

i don't know what stakes you were making $3/100 hands at the nl,

There is no NL game on party where this is a good rate.

Lori

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't know what stakes you were making $3/100 hands at the nl,

There is no NL game on party where this is a good rate.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

yah,

i don't play nl ring pretty much anywhere, but if the guy was playing like .02/.04 nl on someplace, eh, he's probably making an ok rate at $3/100. so i decided to be "nice." or something.

citanul

[eastbay]

After 500 games, you have at most a 50% chance of being within +/-5% of your true ROI.

After 1000 games, you have at most a 2/3 chance of being within +/-5% of your true ROI.

After 3000 games, you have at most a 90% chance of being within +/-5% of your true ROI.

eastbay

[ForumBot]

fold

[ace_in_the_hole]

Thanks for the responses. My $3/100 stat is over 50,000 hands of 4 tabling party NL $25. So I was making $10/hr. How much should I have been making as a good No LImit ring player? How much would you all be making?
My main dibacle is that i am trying to stick to one area of the game and play lots and lots for 3 months to save and hopefully play the higher limits. When im ready of course. ; ) I also feel a lot of animosity(sp?) towards me on these boards. But I love it. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[skipperbob]

[ QUOTE ]
My main dibacle / I also feel a lot of animosity(sp?) towards me on these boards. But I love it. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You questioned the spelling of animosity, but not dibacle?
It ain't animosity Dude, it's pity /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[ace_in_the_hole]

Cause I am so helpless in this world. My typing skills are obviously tied in directly with my poker skills so thanks for the pity. I know realize after all this wasted time that the 50,000 hands of winning poker I played was a fluke. I was running good, and I will never see those results again. Thanks for the pity and I will keep plugging away and feeding money to all the 2+2 multitablers. Come play your AQ's against my AK's and your 88's against my AA's I can't win. I'm pathetic.

[ace_in_the_hole]

Just kidding. I am going to make a good secondary income of this game in the coming months and it is all thanks to you guys, even the beraters, I get all my motivation to learn and play better from you all. Thanks.

[TruFloridaGator]

I have a similar situation right now. I went from having about 15% ROI in my 1st 75, down to like -3% overall right over my past 75. Here's my philosphy. While I work on things & continue to get better, keep this in mind. When you have this small of a sample with a -ROI, remember you are always 1-2 wins from having a + ROI. You need a much larger sample before jumping to conclusions. Although it's tough to keep this philosophy after having a guy AI HU & losing w/ my AK vs A6(he made a str8), 5 minutes ago. None the less, keep at it. PM me if you ever need to because I'm in the same boat as you.

[ace_in_the_hole]

Thanks Gator. I might be giving u a PM this weekend. I plan on playing 100 SnG's in 36 hours.

[Slim Pickens]

I am in a similar situation right now. My Roth IRA dropped 1.3% over the last week, so I'm going to have to bump my retirement back to May of 2045 from January 2045. It's a good thing I have the up-to-the-minute stock ticker installed so I can keep track of this and adjust accordingly.

Slim

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks Gator. I might be giving u a PM this weekend. I plan on playing 100 SnG's in 36 hours.

[/ QUOTE ]

Asking about ROI then 100 SNG's in 36 hours what, 4 tabling? I wish I had the stamina, much less the heart to do this. /images/graemlins/grin.gif If this is 8 tabling, I'll still pray for you as it's not going to be easy. No offense or anything.

[ace_in_the_hole]

I'm gonna put in three 5-6 hour days 4 tabling, which should be about 30-35 SnG's a day.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm gonna put in three 5-6 hour days 4 tabling, which should be about 30-35 SnG's a day.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be very interested in your results if you wouldn't mind after you're done. No reason really since it won't have any point if you're +50% ROI or -50% ROI but still it's nice to know what happened. Would this be the first time you did a marathon like that?