am I too desperate?

[KidV]

I am not sure if this was a correct play or not. My motivation was for pushing was I have 3BB left in my stack, I am on the button and I am getting desperate.

Am I too desperate?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t865)
BB (t700)
UTG (t1905)
MP (t790)
CO (t3100)
Hero (t640)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t640 (All-In)</font>, SB calls t490, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t1580) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t1580) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t1580) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1580

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has Qc Ac (flush, ace high).
Hero has 9s 3s (two pair, kings and threes).
Outcome: SB wins t1580. </font>

[jah0550]

I actually like this push. Both blinds will be crippled if they call you and lose. This is probably the only spot that you can steal from. Don't worry about the results, because you make the right move here. Better luck next time.

[rickr]

There is no other hand from here to your next BB where you have any folding equity. This is it. SB and BB are going to need a very good hand to call. All your outs are most likely clean. Your only other choice is to fade into the sunset waiting for a premium hand. Would you have felt better if you were holding red aces in that spot?

Later,
Rick

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no other hand from here to your next BB where you have any folding equity

[/ QUOTE ]

There is truth in this statement BECAUSE it is likely your opponents will play incorrectly at the lower levels. That being said, if your opponent was a smart player, there is no folding equity here.

Unless it's some super weak/tight player /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[The Yugoslavian]

With no reads, I don't think you have enough FE to push here...if you had any FE, this would be the spot...but I just don't think you have enough.

I wait for a hand that stands better when called...

Yugoslav

[Scuba Chuck]

Prize Structure Analysis ($EV)

Pushing is a little bit of a tough calculation here. First is that there are two potential callers behind you, so I will just assume the BB will be involved for this calculation. Two, I will assume the lower level games will play incorrectly here, thus any two cards won't be the hand range.

Hand Range:
55+, Any two broadway cards, Any Ace.
93s has a 33% win opportunity against this range.
(use pokerstove to get this number)
There is a 24.7% probability your opponent will have a hand within the hand range. Therefore...

ICM Calculator results:

Use the ICM calculator (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html) to solve for equity prize pool %'s.

Folding = 9.7% (assuming SB and BB don't battle it out)
Push, win blinds (P1) = 15.7% of the equity prize pool
Push, BB calls, you win (P2) = 19.9% of the equity prize pool
Push, BB calls, you lose (P3) = 0.0% of the equity prize pool

Pushing = (1-a)(P1)+(a)(b)(P2)+(a)(1-b)(P3)
a = probability of getting called
b = win probability

Pushing = (.753)(.157)+(.247)(.33)(.199)+(.247)(.67)(zero)
Pushing = .11822 + .01622 + zero
Pushing = .1344 = 13.44%

Since pushing is greater than folding, than pushing is the right move here.


Just for shits and giggles, let's assume BB will call with any two cards here (since he has 3.2:1 pot odds to do so).

93s against any two cards has a 43.2% win probability.

Folding = 9.7%
Pushing = (.432)(.199) + (.568)(zero)
Pushing = 8.6%

Therefore, assuming you are playing opponents who "play correctly", this is a hand you should fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I wait for a hand that stands better when called...


[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I think this is the best line here.

Just for maths sakes, you need T6s, for this to be mathematically correct. T6s is 48.91% win probability against any two.

Pushing = (.4891)(.199)+(.5109)(zero)
Pushing = 9.73%
Folding = 9.7%

Thus in THIS scenario and assuming BB will call with any two, and looking at it purely from a mathematical standpoint, T6s is the minimum hand strength for you to make this move correct.

[Degen]

the only thing wrong with this hand is that you lost

if you had won you would not be making this post...takin in isolation that looks like a bad move...but the willingness to make these seemingly retarded moves are what makes (IMO) a dominating SNG player.


Degen

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
but the willingness to make these seemingly retarded moves are what makes (IMO) a dominating SNG player.


[/ QUOTE ]

Mr positive variance dude. Just what a new poster needs, someone who heads to battle without a weapon. Use the math as your weapon to answer these questions. I wouldn't recommend shooting from the hip.

FWIW, because this is a $10+1, I'm pretty torn on what is the correct play. If there is ANY FE on this hand, that would definately make pushing correct.

Degen, if you want to argue (as Lori often does) that the $10+1ers often play incorrectly and fold this hand, only then are you correct. But I'm hard pressed to believe that even these guys getting 3.2:1 pot odds won't call. Hell even the SB is getting 2.2:1 pot odds.

But your comment, taken in isolation, is in itself, retarded.

[RobGW]

Getting desperate? You are beyond desperate here. I dont think folding or pushing is going to make that big of a difference. Its a crapshoot at this point. I think you should usually be thinking of making a move earlier while you still have FE.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Degen, if you want to argue (as Lori often does) that the $10+1ers often play incorrectly and fold this hand, only then are you correct. But I'm hard pressed to believe that even these guys getting 3.2:1 pot odds won't call. Hell even the SB is getting 2.2:1 pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 4 or maybe even 5-handed, you'll have a bit more folding equity, particularly from the SB who will be hoping BB will take you on and one of you will bust or almost bust.

Here the BB and SB are probably just as desperate as you (particularly at the 11s) so they are more likely to call with junk. I think if UTG was in BB's spot, this would be a better push. Here, I think it's a coin flip either way.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

Mr positive variance dude.

[/ QUOTE ]

Be careful...you've got plenty of this goin' for you too, /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Yugoslav
Perhaps a different nickname for Degen?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Mr positive variance dude.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Be careful...you've got plenty of this goin' for you too,

[/ QUOTE ]

You're just jealous Yugo. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[viennagreen]

i don't think that you were desperate enough earlier in the tourney....

why do you have 600 chips? what happened when you posted the blinds? you should have made a play earlier with a hand such as this, when there was a possibility that you could steal.

at this point, you might as well wait for a decent hand.

[EverettKings]

For this particular hand, what Yugo said is correct: they just don't fold often enough for this to be profitable. For kicks, I'll show mathematically why this is true.

Here's an interesting concept: 93s is about a 2:1 dog whether the caller's range is something like Scuba suggested, or if he'll call with any two cards (which I think is likely given the pot odds).

In any case, when called, 1/3 of the time you'll win either 640*2 + 75 if the BB calls (so 1355/3 = 450 chips on average, less than you started with) and 640*2+150 if the SB calls and the BB gets out of the way (so 1430/3 = 480ish, still less). We'll ignore the times both get involved for simplicity, since it's rare.

So lets call it 460 on average (cause the BB calls more often than SB). Clearly if they never fold, you don't profit and this is a bad move.

So basically they have to fold a certain percentage of the time for this play to be profitable. If they fold X percent of the time, you will average getting
(640+225)*x + 465*(1-x) chips
That is, x percent of the time they fold and you have your original chips plus 225 in blinds, and the rest (1-x) of the time they call and you'll average getting 465 chips as calculated before.
Folding earns you your 640 chips, so for pushing to be profitable, the sum has to beat 640. In our case x has to be about 45%.

Now you have to use your noggin to figure out if these suckers are gonna fold to you well over half the time. Note that it has to be well over half per player such that the odds of NEITHER calling is 45% or better. I personally see the BB playing a huge range of hands here, and possibly any two. If you know from your read that he's tight, this play might be marginally profitable. But more than likely it's a fold.

With a hand that fares better against the range of hands that you'd be up against with called (Ax, T9s, etc fare about 40%) then it's a good play.

Wow, that was a lot more in depth than I meant to go, but I just did a bunch of this FE type steal analysis last night so I thought I'd share /images/graemlins/smile.gif

-Kings

[Degen]

there is more than one way to skin a cat scooby doo

i seem to remember winning both times i've met you in a tourney...while you busted both times on the bubble.

take of your skirt, remove the tail from between your legs, learn what FOLDING EQUITY and CAUGHT EQUITY are...and you may win a few tourneys, and stop being blinded off all the time.


Degen

[Degen]

he's just mad cuz i called him weak-tight on the bubble..he's been stalking my posts ever since

Degen

[Scuba Chuck]

Degen, surprisingly, I enjoy these rants because you remind me of myself two months ago, before I understood the math. I'm interested to see how you change if/when you ever spend the time to learn it.

And finally, as usual, you're results oriented.

[TheUsher]

You guys need to get a room or something with all this bickering going on. Or is this one of those perfect times for a high-stakes HU match on Stars!?! Only time will tell. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[lastchance]

The key question is how you got into this sucky spot in the first place. If it's not A. you got beat in a big pot by someone with a slightly smaller stack, then it's B. You're stealing way too infrequently.