Firing 3 barrels against a 2+2er

[nolanfan34]

"Villain" in this hand is a 2+2er who I have not played with before. The person is very TAG, and has shown down a pretty narrow range of hands when raised PF. There's about a 99% chance that they do not know I'm a 2+2er.

Online 2-4

One weak limper to the villain in the CO, who raises. I 3-bet on the button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Fearing the upcoming epic flop battle, the blinds and limper fold. The villain just calls.

Flop: J /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Villain bets, I raise, villain calls.

Turn: blank

Villain checks, I bet, villain calls.

River: blank

Villain checks. Hero? Fires the 3rd bullet?

[Chris Dow]

Is a flop raise your best choice? What hand are you trying to push him off of by the river? Medium pocket pair?

[QTip]

I suck at this scenario..so for what it's worth...

I don't think he's calling your turn bet without going to showdown. I think he's got a pair here and is now in "way ahead or way behind" mode and will call you down.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
Is a flop raise your best choice? What hand are you trying to push him off of by the river? Medium pocket pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought a flop raise would be the easiest way to define my hand. Since the player just called, if they check-raise the turn, I can probably give it up knowing I'm way behind. If I bet the turn, I think TT, 88, KQ, AT could be folded there.

So on the river, I was fairly sure that QQ and KK weren't out there, because I think I would have heard about that on the flop or turn.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he's calling your turn bet without going to showdown. I think he's got a pair here and is now in "way ahead or way behind" mode and will call you down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is getting about 7-1 on the turn, so I don't know that you can rule out AK yet either. I dunno.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
I was fairly sure that QQ and KK weren't out there, because I think I would have heard about that on the flop or turn

[/ QUOTE ]

You would have heard about that PF.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know that you can rule out AK yet either

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, I think you would have heard about that PF.

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
If I bet the turn, I think TT, 88, KQ, AT could be folded there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically, if you just call the flop and then raise the turn I definitely think all 4 of these hands go away. Raising the flop makes it a bit easier for TT to not give up yet. Also if TT doesn't give up on the turn it isn't giving up on the river which just makes it look like your river bet would be really bad. I just don't think that by raising the flop you're going to be able to fire the barrel on the river and get past him. It is a much cheaper proposition to raise the flop and fire the final barrel on the turn so it may be the right approach. I would just argue against a river bet here after the line you took.

[MoreWineII]

If I thought you could get AK to fold, I'd bet. But I almost think a 2+2'er calls you down here.

[Chris Dow]

Yup, gonna agree wholeheartedly on that one. It looks like your river bet should be decided based on getting AK to fold or not. That seems close to me and against a 2+2'er (who called the turn) I think I'm checking and saving the bet.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know that you can rule out AK yet either

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, I think you would have heard about that PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. It's going to be heads up, and I think some of the time there's merit is somewhat disguising an AK hand PF, to make up a big bet later against AQ or AJ, IMO.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
If I thought you could get AK to fold, I'd bet. But I almost think a 2+2'er calls you down here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Therein lies the decision. I really felt like AK was a strong possibility at that point. But, I decided to check.

And her AK was good.

[B Dids]

You think he's calling you with AT or KQ? You think he's folding a hand that beats you if you do bet?

I think this is an easy check and I'd be surprised if you win.

[crunchy1]

I think if you waited until the turn to raise you take it down right there.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
I think if you waited until the turn to raise you take it down right there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I folding to a 3-bet? My thought at the time was that I didn't wait to find out after raising the turn that I'm up against a J, or AA-QQ.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I folding to a 3-bet? My thought at the time was that I didn't wait to find out after raising the turn that I'm up against a J, or AA-QQ.


[/ QUOTE ]

I know it...I always think the same thing. I really like the line crunchy is offering...but it just seems like a high price to pay...especially is villian feels you're trying to pull it off or is just a bit wild or whatever and pushes you off anyway...I'm a pussy with these hands.

[mikeyvegas]

[ QUOTE ]
If I thought you could get AK to fold, I'd bet. But I almost think a 2+2'er calls you down here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree completely with this. I check behind on the river. Your hand has showdown value against a CO pf steal attempt.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I folding to a 3-bet? My thought at the time was that I didn't wait to find out after raising the turn that I'm up against a J, or AA-QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have to fold to a 3-bet but, I don't like having to do it. The key here being that Villian is a TAG. I don't see a TAG playing this range of hands this way.

I think it's much more likely that he's holding either AK (or AQ) or a small pair. I think those are the hands that will put out the flop "feeler" bet. A jack or big pair would've probably check/called and waiting until the big streets to get the heavy action in.

Of course, if you call on the flop he may check the turn which spoils you're "waiting until the turn to raise" line - and then I think you have to check behind UI. But if he is the type that will fire the second bullet I think you'll take this down many times against his UI hands that are actually ahead of you.

[crunchy1]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO <font color="#A500AF">(sLA-A)</font> raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">sLA-A bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">sLA-A bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, sLA-A folds.

Final Pot: 6.25 BB

I know it's not exactly the same with not as much PF action and Hero being in the BB (the gutshot straightflush draw was nice too /images/graemlins/grin.gif). The "re-steal" concept is the same though. I think the flop on my hand is going to be scary enough to fold out CO a good percentage of the time on the turn (I feel the same about your hand).

I guess we need this play to work 2-out-of-3 times to be profitable. Is that realistic? I'm not sure???

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
The "re-steal" concept is the same though. I think the flop on my hand is going to be scary enough to fold out CO a good percentage of the time on the turn (I feel the same about your hand).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, next time, I think I'll try waiting until the turn. If I was the CO, and the 3-bettor PF just called my flop bet, that would raise a red flag.

Of course next time, she'll have the J, but whatever. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[ErrantNight]

since you're double-gutted, may have flush outs, and pair outs, I think your raise doesn't have to fold him that frequently.... why didn't you raise the flop?

[ErrantNight]

I think you have a much stronger case for waiting for the turn than he did...

the two hands really aren't that similar

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
the two hands really aren't that similar

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't argue that.

[me454555]

I assume you put villain on AK b/c thats the only reason to fire the river.

Against a thinking opponent, I'd pop him on the turn b/c theres a better chance you will get him lay down and it saves a sb

[ErrantNight]

no doubt

[crunchy1]

I can't really tell you why I passed on the flop raise - that hand was from a couple days ago sitting in my inbox - I guess I really should get to them sooner.

I'll guess that my thinking may have been along these lines: If I checkraise the flop then I'm 100% leading the turn and I think I'm going to showdown more often. If I wait to checkraise on the turn I think there's a much higher probability that I can take it down right there even if I haven't improved.

This thinking may be off. Chances are, in my hand, that I was holding the best hand the whole time.

I agree nolans hand demonstrates waiting to re-steal on the turn better than mine.

[ErrantNight]

i didn't read your post that carefully... and i'm too tired to open up discussion on it (as to whether c/r'ing, leading, or c/c'ing is best here)... i thought you had position on your opponent.

[Schneids]

The flop bet by the 2er pretty much says to me "I'm going to showdown." His turn call confirms it. You needed to catch an ace, king or queen on the turn or river (king included because it's possible that'll scare him into folding 77 if you keep firing) -- since you didn't, check.