How is this push??

[zheka]

$50+5
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t2843)
Hero (t1620)
MP (t1555)
Button (t2395)
SB (t1587)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1620 (All-In)</font>

Should I fold this and wait for better spot(position)?

[jackdaniels]

I fold and wait.

You are only getting called by a better hand or a PP. Essentially, if called you are hoping for a coin flip. If you were a short stack I'd answer differently, but you have a healthy stack and are out of position (in CO or on the button the answer is different as well).

[jah0550]

I agree with jack, but it is very player dependent. If you have a bunch of tight-asses trying to hang around for the money, then I probably push. This push is very player dependent.

[John Hurst]

This is a great push. Look at the stack sizes. Everybody is in "the comfort zone" with enough chips that they aren't desperate. I doubt anybody is calling with less than A9, PP's above 66's, and KQ. If somebody wakes up with a monster, that's poker. A high percentage of the time he is going to pick up 450 chips and KJ matches up well against a number of hands that call - 99,1010,A9,A10, etc.

His other option is to fold and take the BB in the next hand. If he folds that BB he is down to 1320 chips and has lost ALOT of fold equity.

Of course this answer is player dependant, but lacking strong player reads I push this 100% of the time.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a great push. Look at the stack sizes. Everybody is in "the comfort zone" with enough chips that they aren't desperate. I doubt anybody is calling with less than A9, PP's above 66's, and KQ. If somebody wakes up with a monster, that's poker. A high percentage of the time he is going to pick up 450 chips and KJ matches up well against a number of hands that call - 99,1010,A9,A10, etc.

His other option is to fold and take the BB in the next hand. If he folds that BB he is down to 1320 chips and has lost ALOT of fold equity.

Of course this answer is player dependant, but lacking strong player reads I push this 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

[bruce]

Haven't read the other posts, but this is player dependent. If the table is tight I might push with any two cards. If you pick up the blinds your chances of winning go up. If you pass and go through the blinds you are now relatively short stacked.
I would push in a heart beat on a passive table. Might even prefer to have two rags so if I'm called I'm not dominated.

Bruce

[jah0550]

[ QUOTE ]
Might even prefer to have two rags so if I'm called I'm not dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh? I love to put my money in with jacks and have someone flip over QQ-AA. Think before you speak.
"Chances of winning go up if you pick up the blinds"
Huh? Did you even read the post? The blinds were nothing. I vote this guy for poster of the year!

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Might even prefer to have two rags so if I'm called I'm not dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh? I love to put my money in with jacks and have someone flip over QQ-AA. Think before you speak.
"Chances of winning go up if you pick up the blinds"
Huh? Did you even read the post? The blinds were nothing. I vote this guy for poster of the year!

[/ QUOTE ]

??? what are you flipping out about

he's sayin he'd rather push with 89s or something along those lines than a hand like QJ or A9 where if you are called you're likely dominated instead of a 60/40 dog.

blinds nothing? they're 150/300

as for the push, it's a fine play.

[John Hurst]

[ QUOTE ]
Might even prefer to have two rags so if I'm called I'm not dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree with this and I don't think it is a trivial point. Yes with two rags you will be dominated less often. But you will never be ahead and you will be a coin flip far less often. Occassionally you will even get called by QJ suited or K10 suited. Statistically it is unlikely for somebody to have a better Jack or better King because you have 1 of the Kings and 1 of the Jacks at a shorthanded table. I'm not going to layout the math but it is much better to have KJ against the range of hands that will call you.

[jah0550]

I am officially retarded! I was responding to other posts at the same time and got confused with another thread. The other one I was looking at had the blinds at t15. Sorry for the flame out.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Might even prefer to have two rags so if I'm called I'm not dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree with this and I don't think it is a trivial point. Yes with two rags you will be dominated less often. But you will never be ahead and you will be a coin flip far less often. Occassionally you will even get called by QJ suited or K10 suited. Statistically it is unlikely for somebody to have a better Jack or better King because you have 1 of the Kings and 1 of the Jacks at a shorthanded table. I'm not going to layout the math but it is much better to have KJ against the range of hands that will call you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+, KJo is 36.5% to win.
Against the same range, 98s is 36.6% to win.
Against the same range, 85o ("two rags") is 29.6% to win.

It depends on what your "rags" are, but in general I agree with the rebuttal. The main effect is against the mid pocket pairs which call.

eastbay

[jackdaniels]

I re-read the post and took a second look at what hero would have left if he folded and took the BB.

While you do make a strong case, I'm still not convinced.

If chip distribution remains pretty constant for the next round, even if he took the BB AND SB, hero would still have 50%-75% of anyone elses stack. This is pretty good folding equity. What I'm saying is, there is no need to take the plunge out of position on a mediocre hand when all the stacks are about the same. I would push in a second from CO, Button or SB. From UTG you are increasing the chance of getting called enough that you will LIKELY be put in a coin flip situation (at best). Why put your tourney at risk when the other stacks need to make the same plays you would make to stay alive? I would prefer to let someone else get desperate and push, get called and either get eliminated or double up (which essentially cripples or eliminates one party).

[John Hurst]

Eastbay - thanks for doing the math. That was closer than I expected. The power of the suited connector!

[Gar Pike]

I disagree about the chance of being called being increased.

If you push UTG, everybody folds about 80% of the time. Probably closer to 100%, on the theory that UTG raisers are seen as having stronger hands than CO open-raisers. You'll get a lot more folds from hands you don't want to call (i.e. hands you're just marginally ahead of, or better ones) if you push from an early position, assuming that you have a fairly tight table image.

It would be nice to be able to push KJs from the CO, or the SB, or whatever, but you probably won't get the opportunity that often. Anybody who bets here, pushes. What do you like about calling a UTG push with KJs? Me, not much, unless I have him way out-chipped. I think 44 pushes UTG, but would fold to Hero's push.

Regards,

Gar

[jackdaniels]

Ok, that makes some sense. I'll buy that pushing UTG increases your FE compared to a push from CO/Button. Is getting through a couple of extra players who may pick up a hand that can call (assume a coin flip after all money is in) worth the extra FE? Maybe. I'm not sure if I'm being too tight over here, but I generally don't like to splash around from EP when I don't have to (other players are in same boat as me chip wise).

Again, these are all powerful arguments for playing it with a push from UTG. Maybe having the extra FE is the most powerful of all (as I wouldn't want to get called here, no reason for a coin flip).

Food for thought.

[Degen]

great move...i like going in with any two right here

you're adding 25% more to your stack...sometimes you run into huge pairs and that sucks...but you'll rarely be called...when u do you'll suckout enough to make it a profitable move.

i prefer suited connectors in this position, but for agressive, proper play here, i don't think anybody can be faulted for pushing any two cards.

Degen

*do note that AK and to a lesser extent AJ and KQ will call you here, so you'll be dominated with this hand often when you ARE called...so my saying its a good move is based almost entirely on folding equity

[Degen]

this is good advice if your goal is 3rd

Degen

[Degen]

"but lacking strong player reads I push this 100% of the time"

I think that is a bad idea...i'd say 1/2 the time.


Degen

[Degen]

it isn't a MUST PUSH situation

if you pushed, it'd be a great move...if you folded, it wouldn't be a bad fold

nothing wrong with pushing here, but if you always do this sort of thing with this sort of hand, you'll open your oponents to start calling with weaker hands.


this is good to mix into an otherwise tight game plan (or a game plan that is designed to appear tight)

Degen

[Degen]

"I vote this guy for poster of the year!"

i agree with "this guy"...that was a good post



if you are thinking you'll get called a decent percentage of the time...you SHOULD NOT push with this hand.

this is only a hand you want to be pushing if you think that MOST OF THE TIME they'll fold.


if you are called who is going to call you?

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AJs

any of those hands? uh huh

How are you lookin if any of those hands call you smart guy?

answer: not too good.



That was an incredibly rude response to a very good point.

I'd like to quote you and say:

"Think before you speak."

Degen

[Degen]

haha then sorry for my re-raise flameout

Degen

[John Hurst]

[ QUOTE ]
nothing wrong with pushing here, but if you always do this sort of thing with this sort of hand, you'll open your oponents to start calling with weaker hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

This does not concern me at all. Sometimes I have KJ in this situation sometimes I have QQ. Good luck to my opponent in taking notes and guessing correctly.