bb/hr or 100 hands

[domino]

I have been a long time lurker at this site. I have never posted before or replied to a post because I never really thought I had anything to offer. However,there are now a few things I would like to contribute to the dialogue to.I have quite a few questions I would like to discuss but will save those for future posts.

I have seen quite a few posts inquiring into the number of big bets a person makes per hour/100 hds in omaha. I have yet to see anybody post what I think are meaningful figures regarding limit O8 games.I have 3 yrs of b&m omaha games in Los Angeles and 1445 hrs of internet play(3 games at once).So even though I do not have poker tracker,I keep detailed records as far as hours and net results go.I don't think that you can make a real determination of how you are doing at a game until you have about 2000 hrs in. Even then you will get some very strange segments within that time frame. I am beating the 3/6 at party poker for less that 2 bb/hr. But I have a 500 hour block where I made 1 bb/hr and I have a 500 block where I made 3 bb/hr and I have 312 hours in this year and I am a losing if you measure from the beginning of the year(which I don't because I think it is better to focus on a positive etc. my overall results.

Short term results can be very very misleading. I don't think anybody can tell what kind of player he is with a sampling less that 200M hands on the internet.I also have about 30M hands in the 10/20 game. I was a winning player until my last play,now I am a losing player. But I don't think I have enough hands in that game to determine anything yet. I don't think you can compare pot limit or no limit games to limit in terms of bb/hr. I assume the bb/100 hands came from this poker tracker software(I would like to know which is the best one and where to get it). 100 hands is about one hour of playing 3 omaha tables at once(I am judging this by my hands used to qualify for bonuses).

In parting I will say that the VERY BEST game I have been in on the internet(I only have experience in 3/6,5/10,and 10/20)was not as good as the average everyday game at the b&m casinos here in Los Angeles. I believe that is also true of the HE games I have tried there. I assume that the largest number of new bad players are showing up in the small no-limit games but this is just my own humble assumption. I have never played big bet poker,15/30 stakes but not p/l or n/l.

I would appreciate any comments you might have whether you agree with me or not.I have only my own experiences to draw on and I could be completely wrong about all of this. Have a good day and I hope you hold winning cards.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
I have seen quite a few posts inquiring into the number of big bets a person makes per hour/100 hds in omaha. I have yet to see anybody post what I think are meaningful figures regarding limit O8 games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Welcome to the forum. Capelletti says 2-3 BB/hour (big blinds) is possible for a good player, at the lower limits (10-20 and below). You seem to define meaningful as having a very large # of hands, so I’m not surprised you haven’t seen many posts that meet that hurdle.

I agree that there is a lot of variance in the short-run in poker, and that the short-run is a lot longer than people think, but you should have a decent indication of whether you’re a winning player long before 100k hands (which is 2000 hours). It’s just statistics – I’m sure someone has figured out a formula to plug in # hands, winrate and standard deviation to get to what # hands deliver what confidence interval level. And those models are usually for limit holdem and O8 should be lower variance. I’d guess 30k would be sufficient to tell, maybe less.

Go to Pokertracker.com It is awesome. There are a couple others out but that’s the one to get.

I’ve not really played much O8 live, but the play I have seen was indeed much worse than online. But there is no dealer toke online, the games play much faster, and you can play multiple tables so I think online would still be more profitable. I agree that the newest, worst players are going to holdem. It’s usually the ones who get alittle bored or want a change of pace that come to O8, and there is some adjustment so they usually donate for awhile.

--Greg

[UseThePeenEnd]

A lot of us are so overjoyed to have some data to fondle that we're overlooking that it may mean absolutely nothing without adequate sample size, and this sample size is soberingly large for a lot of things that PTO tracks.

This gets discussed in the "auto rate" string in this forum, and someone correctly (I think) pointed out that only a few things rapidly converge toward usable numbers- % of hands voluntarily played (VPIP), preflop raise % (PFR), % went to showdown (WSD); etc- the numbers that reflect player decisions, rather than outcomes.

A number of posts are being made (Ive done it too) because we are bouyed by good early results. Variance lurks both ways, up and down. You, clearly toughened over time, correctly point this out.

[gergery]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1342415&page=1&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1&vc=1]

[domino]

Thanks for that earlier post. I hope someday to have those figures from poker tracker and maybe I will be able to figure out how to use them. Also thanks for the note about poker tracker.

[Bulbarainey]

[ QUOTE ]


In parting I will say that the VERY BEST game I have been in on the internet(I only have experience in 3/6,5/10,and 10/20)was not as good as the average everyday game at the b&m casinos here in Los Angeles. I believe that is also true of the HE games I have tried there. I assume that the largest number of new bad players are showing up in the small no-limit games but this is just my own humble assumption. I have never played big bet poker,15/30 stakes but not p/l or n/l.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree completely... I'm a lurker myself too, but in my experience L.A. 3/6 games (usually the lowest limit) are filled with way worse players than 50c/1$ on party. At Commerce it's the same old crowd everyday and u usually have half the table playing almost every hand, and at Hustler... even though they only have one table, its always action packed. Lately I've been playing party 2/4$ O/8... and it does get very juicy sometimes, but never to the level of the LA games, even at 5am...