Who gonna call you?

[jason_t]

New table. No reads.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: I am MP1 with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG posts a blind of $2.
UTG (poster) checks, UTG+1 calls, I call, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, I call.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (11.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, I check.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

[Chris Dow]

I think it goes something like this, you're opponents are complete morons, when in doubt bet. That 3 looks good for you, I'm going to bet and give k5 with the kc a chance to call. On the flip side, if you bet what is going to call you that is beating you? I'm balancing the chances of a random jack appearing on the end as lower than the chances someone with the 5 will call so fire away.

[rmarotti]

I think you should bet this.

[27offsooot]

Anybody else prefer calling the flop and taking a wait and see approach on the turn? I think it's doubtful that BB will bet AK into three people when a turn blank falls and I think u will have a better idea of where u stand on the turn.

Edit: I don't hate raising the flop b/c the hand becomes a hell of a lot easier to play, but just trying to see what u all think.

[Fat Nicky]

I dislike the flop raise. I am interested in peoples thoughts as to why raising the flop is correct.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
I dislike the flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not seeing it either.

[jason_t]

Could one of the three people who don't like the flop raise elaborate?

[Chris Dow]

On this flop with this action so far the hero can expect 77 to be winning. The hero doesn't want to play like a passive douchebag so he raises. Basically if hero calls the flop what sort of card on the turn is he going to be able to then raise? I think it is pretty easily recognized that most cards that come off will be "scare cards" so he would be even less inclined to raise the turn. If he doesn't raise at some point in the hand he's just being a calling station here. That is sub-optimal poker. So he raises the flop in order to check if anyone feels like 3 betting, in order to get checked to on the next round (which might even get him a free card if say, an ace pops on the turn he can try to catch his set for free on the river) and finally in order to get checked to on the river so that he can decide whether to value bet or take the showdown. It should be very obvious in this hand example that as soon as Hero raised the flop the other 3 players all let him run the show from there on out. Since Hero wasn't folding the flop this is very desireable for him.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
Could one of the three people who don't like the flop raise elaborate?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think thier fear is that 77 doesn't beat a weak TP.

What they are missing is that not only a weak TP is going to bet here, and Hero has position for the rest of the hand.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
Could one of the three people who don't like the flop raise elaborate?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a bettor, 2 callers, an overcard on board, and your hand is very vulnerable at this point.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
On this flop with this action so far the hero can expect 77 to be winning. The hero doesn't want to play like a passive douchebag so he raises. Basically if hero calls the flop what sort of card on the turn is he going to be able to then raise? I think it is pretty easily recognized that most cards that come off will be "scare cards" so he would be even less inclined to raise the turn. If he doesn't raise at some point in the hand he's just being a calling station here. That is sub-optimal poker. So he raises the flop in order to check if anyone feels like 3 betting, in order to get checked to on the next round (which might even get him a free card if say, an ace pops on the turn he can try to catch his set for free on the river) and finally in order to get checked to on the river so that he can decide whether to value bet or take the showdown. It should be very obvious in this hand example that as soon as Hero raised the flop the other 3 players all let him run the show from there on out. Since Hero wasn't folding the flop this is very desireable for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising the flop because calling is weak is flat out wrong here. Look at your hand, look at the board, look at the fact that there are 3 other players that put money in the flop before you. What makes us confident that we are ahead on the flop, moreso, if we raise, what makes us confident that we will be ahead on the turn. The fact that almost every card in the deck is a scare card, makes raising the flop less desirable, NOT more desirable. Also, raising for a free card here isn't worth much.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
On this flop with this action so far the hero can expect 77 to be winning. The hero doesn't want to play like a passive douchebag so he raises. Basically if hero calls the flop what sort of card on the turn is he going to be able to then raise? I think it is pretty easily recognized that most cards that come off will be "scare cards" so he would be even less inclined to raise the turn. If he doesn't raise at some point in the hand he's just being a calling station here. That is sub-optimal poker. So he raises the flop in order to check if anyone feels like 3 betting, in order to get checked to on the next round (which might even get him a free card if say, an ace pops on the turn he can try to catch his set for free on the river) and finally in order to get checked to on the river so that he can decide whether to value bet or take the showdown. It should be very obvious in this hand example that as soon as Hero raised the flop the other 3 players all let him run the show from there on out. Since Hero wasn't folding the flop this is very desireable for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a lot to learn. That is all.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Could one of the three people who don't like the flop raise elaborate?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think thier fear is that 77 doesn't beat a weak TP.

What they are missing is that not only a weak TP is going to bet here, and Hero has position for the rest of the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Forget being up against top pair...whether we raise the flop or not, 3 other players are going to see a turn card, IF we are ahead on the flop, do you really think that our chances of still being ahead on the turn make a flop raise the proper play.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

On this flop with this action so far the hero can expect 77 to be winning. The hero doesn't want to play like a passive douchebag so he raises. Basically if hero calls the flop what sort of card on the turn is he going to be able to then raise? I think it is pretty easily recognized that most cards that come off will be "scare cards" so he would be even less inclined to raise the turn. If he doesn't raise at some point in the hand he's just being a calling station here. That is sub-optimal poker. So he raises the flop in order to check if anyone feels like 3 betting, in order to get checked to on the next round (which might even get him a free card if say, an ace pops on the turn he can try to catch his set for free on the river) and finally in order to get checked to on the river so that he can decide whether to value bet or take the showdown. It should be very obvious in this hand example that as soon as Hero raised the flop the other 3 players all let him run the show from there on out. Since Hero wasn't folding the flop this is very desireable for him

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
There is a bettor, 2 callers, an overcard on board, and your hand is very vulnerable at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

So wait for a safe turn card here? Then the 3/images/graemlins/club.gif...?

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is a bettor, 2 callers, an overcard on board, and your hand is very vulnerable at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

So wait for a safe turn card here? Then the 3/images/graemlins/club.gif...?

[/ QUOTE ]

Upon calling the flop, i'd see the turn card + the action by the 3 other players in the hand before making a decision.

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]


Raising the flop because calling is weak is flat out wrong here. Look at your hand, look at the board, look at the fact that there are 3 other players that put money in the flop before you. What makes us confident that we are ahead on the flop, moreso, if we raise, what makes us confident that we will be ahead on the turn. The fact that almost every card in the deck is a scare card, makes raising the flop less desirable, NOT more desirable. Also, raising for a free card here isn't worth much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have to agree here. The field is large enough that someone is likely to hold a Jack - likely the flop bettor in the blind. So realistically, you have 2 outs. Folding the flop might be the way to go here.

However, if the bettor wasn't the blind (where he could be holding just about anything that would match the board) and the flop came without the J overcard, maybe the flop raise is ok, since we'd put the bettor on overcards (particularly if he raised preflop).

I tend to cut my losses at the flop when whiffing with a small-medium PP against a large field when the flop comes overcards.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
Forget being up against top pair...whether we raise the flop or not, 3 other players are going to see a turn card, IF we are ahead on the flop, do you really think that our chances of still being ahead on the turn make a flop raise the proper play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we have the best hand here with 77, we also have an equity edge. We should push that edge while we have it.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
Could one of the three people who don't like the flop raise elaborate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Reasons to call:
1.) You have two people calling the PFRaisers lead, which makes it likely that you are behind.
2.) You have the button, so you are able to see the turn card and how the action develops on the turn w/o committing yourself to seeing a showdown. Most people won't bet again into 3 callers with AK, so u gain some info just by calling here. Also there are so many turn cards that f u, so getting out cheaper is preferable should u need to.
3.) You won't fold anybody that already called one bet on the flop given the pot size

Edit: I listed some reasons for raising, but i don't really like any of them.

[afk]

[ QUOTE ]
If we have the best hand here with 77, we also have an equity edge. We should push that edge while we have it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah.... but I honestly believe hero is behind most of the time on this flop...Which means hero does not have an equity edge. I guess I'm surprised that people are advocating raising this flop, I probably would have folded most of the time.

edit to say: You're closing the action on the flop so maybe it's worth peeling sometimes, but you need to be damn sure you'll make up the (large) difference.

[Chris Dow]

The funny thing here is that the opponents of the raise want to call. The only thing you absolutely can't do is call which is what I attempted to elaborate on. Misinterpretations of my post as "you have to do this every time you have 77 in this spot" are a bit silly. Interpretations of my post as "if you're playing with a bunch of particularly bad 2/4 players you would consider raising here for these reasons" would be more fruitful. All of that being said I still lie directly in the fold or raise camp. Everyone who wants to call and wait until the turn is wasting a bet and playing poorly imo. I will certainly take the line of raise the flop here with 77 occasionally and if I do I would bet the turn and the river as it came down in this hand. In general I think people are really underestimating the amount of times hero can drag this pot on the river.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Forget being up against top pair...whether we raise the flop or not, 3 other players are going to see a turn card, IF we are ahead on the flop, do you really think that our chances of still being ahead on the turn make a flop raise the proper play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we have the best hand here with 77, we also have an equity edge. We should push that edge while we have it.

[/ QUOTE ]

And let me also say that I'm not advocating a particular flop line yet. I want further discussion on this. I was just saying what I believe is the reason why raising the flop might not be right. Not that it's my evaluation of the hand.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Forget being up against top pair...whether we raise the flop or not, 3 other players are going to see a turn card, IF we are ahead on the flop, do you really think that our chances of still being ahead on the turn make a flop raise the proper play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we have the best hand here with 77, we also have an equity edge. We should push that edge while we have it.

[/ QUOTE ]

if it's reasonable to say that our 3 opponenets combined have 3 overcards, a flush draw, and a small pair, then we don't have an equity edge.

[Chris Dow]

Definitely a problem in this hand with people who are saying call because you're behind. It's a fold if you're that convinced you must be behind, the pot is waaaaay too small.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah.... but I honestly believe hero is behind most of the time on this flop...

[/ QUOTE ]

I honestly see no reason to believe this. Is that wrong?

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing you absolutely can't do is call which is what I attempted to elaborate on.

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree, please read my other posts in this thread to understand why.

[GrunchCan]

I agree that this seems like raise or fold time. Calling doesn't really do much for us. If we have enough reason to continue with the hand, raising does more than calling by making later streets easier to play and pushing a possible edge.

I don't see calling here.

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah.... but I honestly believe hero is behind most of the time on this flop...

[/ QUOTE ]

I honestly see no reason to believe this. Is that wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno jason, but I'm right there with you.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah.... but I honestly believe hero is behind most of the time on this flop...

[/ QUOTE ]

I honestly see no reason to believe this. Is that wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's wrong, I think there is a chance hero has the best hand at the flop...but that doesn't mean hero should raise the flop.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Could one of the three people who don't like the flop raise elaborate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Reasons to call:
1.) You have two people calling the PFRaisers lead, which makes it likely that you are behind.
2.) You have the button, so you are able to see the turn card and how the action develops on the turn w/o committing yourself to seeing a showdown. Most people won't bet again into 3 callers with AK, so u gain some info just by calling here. Also there are so many turn cards that f u, so getting out cheaper is preferable should u need to.
3.) You won't fold anybody that already called one bet on the flop given the pot size

Edit: I listed some reasons for raising, but i don't really like any of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

good post, i agree 100%

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only thing you absolutely can't do is call which is what I attempted to elaborate on.

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree, please read my other posts in this thread to understand why.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, your other posts do absolutely nothing to convince me that call is even worth considering.

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]


Reasons to call:
1.) You have two people calling the PFRaisers lead, which makes it likely that you are behind.
2.) You have the button, so you are able to see the turn card and how the action develops on the turn w/o committing yourself to seeing a showdown. Most people won't bet again into 3 callers with AK, so u gain some info just by calling here. Also there are so many turn cards that f u, so getting out cheaper is preferable should u need to.
3.) You won't fold anybody that already called one bet on the flop given the pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

But hero only has 2 outs - and maybe just none at all, since the board is 2 flushed. The pot has 10 SB, calling makes no sense in terms of pot odds, since hitting another 7 on the turn is like 24-1 and on the turn and river combined is like 12-1.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
But hero only has 2 outs - and maybe just none at all, since the board is 2 flushed. The pot has 10 SB, calling makes no sense in terms of pot odds, since hitting another 7 on the turn is like 24-1 and on the turn and river combined is like 12-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's important to note that I might not be behind and that I am holding 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Reasons to call:
1.) You have two people calling the PFRaisers lead, which makes it likely that you are behind.
2.) You have the button, so you are able to see the turn card and how the action develops on the turn w/o committing yourself to seeing a showdown. Most people won't bet again into 3 callers with AK, so u gain some info just by calling here. Also there are so many turn cards that f u, so getting out cheaper is preferable should u need to.
3.) You won't fold anybody that already called one bet on the flop given the pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

But hero only has 2 outs - and maybe just none at all, since the board is 2 flushed. The pot has 10 SB, calling makes no sense in terms of pot odds, since hitting another 7 on the turn is like 24-1 and on the turn and river combined is like 12-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

jskills response is the actual good post. The callers want to hit a 7 on the turn and then continue with the hand, that's pretty ridiculous. You need to make a decision on the flop and that decision is fold or raise. (Folding every time here won't hurt you much in the long run, but I like that Hero is smart enough to recognize that after the preflop action what just happened on the flop means absolutely nothing as far as who "must" have him beat and in fact seems to suggest that his 77 could definitely be the best hand)

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only thing you absolutely can't do is call which is what I attempted to elaborate on.

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree, please read my other posts in this thread to understand why.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, your other posts do absolutely nothing to convince me that call is even worth considering.

[/ QUOTE ]

awesome

[brettbrettr]

I think there's a very, very good chance that hero is ahead here. That is a really, really raggy flop which people will call with all sorts of stuff. I find no reason to think you're behind, and no reason to raise or fold. I think this is a call and see what happens on the turn.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
The callers want to hit a 7 on the turn and then continue with the hand,

[/ QUOTE ]

i want to call, and I want to hit a set..but that is not my only reason for calling.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Forget being up against top pair...whether we raise the flop or not, 3 other players are going to see a turn card, IF we are ahead on the flop, do you really think that our chances of still being ahead on the turn make a flop raise the proper play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we have the best hand here with 77, we also have an equity edge. We should push that edge while we have it.

[/ QUOTE ]

if it's reasonable to say that our 3 opponenets combined have 3 overcards, a flush draw, and a small pair, then we don't have an equity edge.

[/ QUOTE ]

So there are 17 outs against us? That's a total of about 68% equity in the hands of our 3 opponents, leaving 32% for hero. 32% equity with 3 opponents is a clear equity edge.

Hero isn't a favorite, but you obviously don't have to be a favorite to bet or raise.

[afk]

BB bet into 3 players and gets two callers. Assuming these guys are typical unknowns at 2/4 (loose-ish and passive) I don't think you're ahead of most of the hands that would be bet or celled in two places. What hands do you put the bettor and two callers on to make you think you're ahead most of the time?

You're behind AA-88,AJ,KJ,QJ,JT,J9s, You're ahead of overcards, AKs/o, AQs/o, maaaybe KQs/o depending on raising standards. You're also ahead of T9, and flush draws(unless they've paired a jack).

What other hands do you think you'll see here? I'm just having a hard time putting opponents on hands you are ahead of.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Forget being up against top pair...whether we raise the flop or not, 3 other players are going to see a turn card, IF we are ahead on the flop, do you really think that our chances of still being ahead on the turn make a flop raise the proper play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we have the best hand here with 77, we also have an equity edge. We should push that edge while we have it.

[/ QUOTE ]

if it's reasonable to say that our 3 opponenets combined have 3 overcards, a flush draw, and a small pair, then we don't have an equity edge.

[/ QUOTE ]

So there are 17 outs against us? That's a total of about 68% equity in the hands of our 3 opponents, leaving 32% for hero. 32% equity with 3 opponents is a clear equity edge.

Hero isn't a favorite, but you obviously don't have to be a favorite to bet or raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the fact that hero only has 2 cards to improve makes these #s a little bit misleading.

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So there are 17 outs against us? That's a total of about 68% equity in the hands of our 3 opponents, leaving 32% for hero. 32% equity with 3 opponents is a clear equity edge.

Hero isn't a favorite, but you obviously don't have to be a favorite to bet or raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the fact that hero only has 2 cards to improve makes these #s a little bit misleading.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that hero has 2 cards to improve doesn't change those numbers at all.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah.... but I honestly believe hero is behind most of the time on this flop...

[/ QUOTE ]

I honestly see no reason to believe this. Is that wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's impossible to estimate how often u are behind/ ahead here, especially without reads. I do think that u will have a better idea on the turn and the chance that u are ahead on the flop, along with the size of the pot, warrants a call here.

There are so many situations that can develop on the turn and to some bets I would fold, some I might raise, some I might call. If it's checked to me on the turn, though I am betting most of the time. It's trickier to play by just calling the flop bet, but that's poker. I'm sick of people that think folding/ raising are ur only options in every hand.

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]


I think it's impossible to estimate how often u are behind/ ahead here, especially without reads. I do think that u will have a better idea on the turn and the chance that u are ahead on the flop, along with the size of the pot, warrants a call here.

There are so many situations that can develop on the turn and to some bets I would fold, some I might raise, some I might call. If it's checked to me on the turn, though I am betting most of the time. It's trickier to play by just calling the flop bet, but that's poker. I'm sick of people that think folding/ raising are ur only options in every hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If by trickier you mean you don't take advantage of your position and frequently mistakenly fold while ahead then I completely agree with you. However I don't want to play poker like that.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So there are 17 outs against us? That's a total of about 68% equity in the hands of our 3 opponents, leaving 32% for hero. 32% equity with 3 opponents is a clear equity edge.

Hero isn't a favorite, but you obviously don't have to be a favorite to bet or raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the fact that hero only has 2 cards to improve makes these #s a little bit misleading.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that hero has 2 cards to improve doesn't change those numbers at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, I never said the numbers change.

[QTip]

I haven't heard anyone say how fun it would be to be 3 bet by the PFR...

[afk]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's impossible to estimate how often u are behind/ ahead here, especially without reads. I do think that u will have a better idea on the turn and the chance that u are ahead on the flop, along with the size of the pot, warrants a call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, estimating how often you are ahead or behind here (or at least coming up with a range of hands you may be up against) is one of the most fundamental parts of poker. I think saying that it's impossible to get a handle on where you're at in the hand is pretty bad.

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So there are 17 outs against us? That's a total of about 68% equity in the hands of our 3 opponents, leaving 32% for hero. 32% equity with 3 opponents is a clear equity edge.

Hero isn't a favorite, but you obviously don't have to be a favorite to bet or raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the fact that hero only has 2 cards to improve makes these #s a little bit misleading.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that hero has 2 cards to improve doesn't change those numbers at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, I never said the numbers change.

[/ QUOTE ]

So did you say anything at all?

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Reasons to call:
1.) You have two people calling the PFRaisers lead, which makes it likely that you are behind.
2.) You have the button, so you are able to see the turn card and how the action develops on the turn w/o committing yourself to seeing a showdown. Most people won't bet again into 3 callers with AK, so u gain some info just by calling here. Also there are so many turn cards that f u, so getting out cheaper is preferable should u need to.
3.) You won't fold anybody that already called one bet on the flop given the pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

But hero only has 2 outs - and maybe just none at all, since the board is 2 flushed. The pot has 10 SB, calling makes no sense in terms of pot odds, since hitting another 7 on the turn is like 24-1 and on the turn and river combined is like 12-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a strictly "pot odds" situation. There is a chance that hero is ahead and there is a chance that he is behind. Yes, u also have a chance to spike a set which allows u to peel one off if (completely hypothetical here, I don't care to do the math) u are, say, 80 % sure u are behind instead of say 70%. The main point of calling on the flop is so that u can wait to see how things develop on the turn.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't heard anyone say how fun it would be to be 3 bet by the PFR...

[/ QUOTE ]

Interestingly enough, after all this discussion, I totally forgot that BB raised pre-flop.

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I haven't heard anyone say how fun it would be to be 3 bet by the PFR...

[/ QUOTE ]

Interestingly enough, after all this discussion, I totally forgot that BB raised pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the reason Hero is so likely to be ahead on this board still. It would be fun to be 3 bet by the PFR because then the mystery is definitely solved. On a side note, it is my opinion that the people advocating call are also demonstrating some really poor fundamental gaps in a lot of places. The point that call is wrong is being proven by the people advocating it.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
The main point of calling on the flop is so that u can wait to see how things develop on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we're grossly overestimating our edge on this flop and action. Since we have the 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif, that helps a little, but after the PFR bets into this field and there are callers...I'm not liking my hand much.

We really don't have the odds to peel even though we're closing the action and have the club...

I'm mucking.

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there's a very, very good chance that hero is ahead here. That is a really, really raggy flop which people will call with all sorts of stuff. I find no reason to think you're behind, and no reason to raise or fold. I think this is a call and see what happens on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think you're ahead, then why not raise? If you feel like I do, that it is likely you are not ahead (many opponents, an overcard and 4-flush on the board), then folding is correct. Paying to "see what develops" on the turn makes sense if you're on a flush draw or OESD, but when the only developments that can help you are 1 of 2 7's, why hang around?

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So there are 17 outs against us? That's a total of about 68% equity in the hands of our 3 opponents, leaving 32% for hero. 32% equity with 3 opponents is a clear equity edge.

Hero isn't a favorite, but you obviously don't have to be a favorite to bet or raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the fact that hero only has 2 cards to improve makes these #s a little bit misleading.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that hero has 2 cards to improve doesn't change those numbers at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, I never said the numbers change.

[/ QUOTE ]

So did you say anything at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd love to expand for you, but i think i'm done with this thread since there is no convincing you that raising the flop is not optimal, which is perfectly fine...i enjoyed the discussion.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
That's the reason Hero is so likely to be ahead on this board still.

[/ QUOTE ]

...the PFR bets into a large field and the UTG players don't give a damn...we're probably ahead...

[Chris Dow]

It is hard to convince with a flawed argument, that much I will give you.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
It would be fun to be 3 bet by the PFR because then the mystery is definitely solved.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you'd muck the 3 bet then?

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think you're ahead, then why not raise? If you feel like I do, that it is likely you are not ahead (many opponents, an overcard and 4-flush on the board), then folding is correct. Paying to "see what develops" on the turn makes sense if you're on a flush draw or OESD, but when the only developments that can help you are 1 of 2 7's, why hang around?

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone catching this post later and trying to make sense of it would do well to look at jskills posts. Everything he has said has been solid and in this comment he completely sums up why this has to be a raise/fold situation.

[Chris Dow]

Yeah unless one of the utg's comes along, then I might go for my 2 outer.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
so you'd muck the 3 bet then?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have, instantly.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's impossible to estimate how often u are behind/ ahead here, especially without reads. I do think that u will have a better idea on the turn and the chance that u are ahead on the flop, along with the size of the pot, warrants a call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, estimating how often you are ahead or behind here (or at least coming up with a range of hands you may be up against) is one of the most fundamental parts of poker. I think saying that it's impossible to get a handle on where you're at in the hand is pretty bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying that u shouldn't read the board and say, well, someone might have a flush draw, someone might have a small pp, someone might have a jack, someone might have overs or complete trash, etc.. You can put people on ranges of hands, but assessing the likelihood of each hand is impossible and putting a hard % on the likelihood that u are ahead or behind w/o knowing the type of player that is betting and the types of players that are calling is ridicuolous.

I think that if u call the flop bet and see how others react to the turn card (and what the turn card is), u will have a better idea where u stand.

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that if u call the flop bet and see how others react to the turn card (and what the turn card is), u will have a better idea where u stand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is so bad. What you said is, "Call and try to turn the 2 outer, fold otherwise". The odds aren't there to do that. How do you expect the action to go on the turn? I can tell you that it won't involve them all checking to you and that isn't conclusive enough to prove you are behind.

[brettbrettr]

I like this hand, but some of you need to stop being so goddamned bitchy.

In any case, I think I'm ahead. I want to call to see what happens when BB checks the turn. I don't think that flop hit him, I don't think he's betting u/i overs into 3 people.

That was my thought process. Might be wrong, might be right, who knows. But I do need to work now so adios.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think that if u call the flop bet and see how others react to the turn card (and what the turn card is), u will have a better idea where u stand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is so bad. What you said is, "Call and try to turn the 2 outer, fold otherwise". The odds aren't there to do that. How do you expect the action to go on the turn? I can tell you that it won't involve them all checking to you and that isn't conclusive enough to prove you are behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you completely lack reading comprehension? I'm done with this thread.

Though I just want to throw this out to people who said to fold the flop. I don't mind folding the flop, i think it's better than raising. I just think that calling is best.

[afk]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying that u shouldn't read the board and say, well, someone might have a flush draw, someone might have a small pp, someone might have a jack, someone might have overs or complete trash, etc.. You can put people on ranges of hands, but assessing the likelihood of each hand is impossible and putting a hard % on the likelihood that u are ahead or behind w/o knowing the type of player that is betting and the types of players that are calling is ridicuolous.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you're right. You can't really put this into an exact percentage number. But using your hand reading skills you have to estimate where you're at. Calling to see the turn to give you more information is throwing money away in my opinion.

[flair1239]

I guess I am not sure what we are hoping for here. I realise that getting 11.5-1 we are looking really hard for a reason to continue.

If you want to get really generous you have 3.5 outs.

The problem is we may be best right now. So if we are going to stay in (which I think is debateable, I favor folding at this point), it is because our hand has showdown value. I think a flop raise gives us the best oppurtunity to see the river or get out of the hand cheaply.

I like his turn bet as long as he is folding to a checkraise.

I would bet the river based upon the turn action, I think Ace high will call here, so will a lower pair. We are probably going to be shown a jack, but with no reads at 2/4 I would probably bet.

[QTip]

That's not good Jason...

8.50 sb on flop.

If you raised and BB 3 bet and both UTGs came along, the odds are laying 20.5/1 for your call...you're sucked in.

[afk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so you'd muck the 3 bet then?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have, instantly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think when it comes back to you you'll probably have the odds to catch a 7.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling to see the turn to give you more information is throwing money away in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the above is true, I think calling is reasonable. But I think I like the flop raise now. If no ace or king pops off on the turn I'd like to show this down. Raising here might let me do that for free. I don't like folding here b/c I'm not giving BB credit for connecting on the flop, and I"m only slightly friegtened of the callers.

[chief444]

Those numbers assume hero is ahead on the flop.

I would call the flop here as well. I would guess hero's equity on this flop is likely around 25% or slightly higher (without getting into any detail so that could be off but it would be my guess at that point in the hand if I were playing) so I'm not saying a flop raise is really bad. But with a middle pocket pair, a pre-flop raiser leading into three opponents, and two calls I'll call this closing the action and see what happens on the turn. I may raise/fold/or call the turn.

I do find the lack of comments regarding the river play a little disturbing. Anyone strongly advocating a flop raise must feel 77 is more likely to be ahead than I would guess it is. If I felt that strongly I had the best hand on the flop I wouldn't think twice about betting the river. As it is though I feel they're both fairly close and I honestly don't have any strong argument against the way jason played it. It's just not the line I would have taken.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
But using your hand reading skills you have to estimate where you're at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to do when we have no reads.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

That's not good Jason...

8.50 sb on flop.

If you raised and BB 3 bet and both UTGs came along, the odds are laying 20.5/1 for your call...you're sucked in.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I obviously didn't do the math correctly. In this case, I would definitely call but fold the turn UI.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
It would be fun to be 3 bet by the PFR because then the mystery is definitely solved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed at that point there would be no reason to continue. I know Chris is a suspected troll; but in this situation I agree with him. The hand has showdown value, and if you are going to continue you need to pick a way that could get you there cheap.

All that calling does is virtually guarantee that you will be face with the same situation on the turn, then you would have to muck anyway.

It is a borderline hand at best, and I really think that folding the flop deserves more consideration. But I think raising would either gives us a chnce to see the river cheap, or help show us that we are behind.

[afk]

[ QUOTE ]
Hard to do when we have no reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, but we still have to try. It won't be as accurate as we'd like but it's better than nothing. I've just assumed typical loose-ish and passive 2/4 opponents.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
but some of you need to stop being so goddamned bitchy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

[ QUOTE ]
In any case, I think I'm ahead. I want to call to see what happens when BB checks the turn. I don't think that flop hit him, I don't think he's betting u/i overs into 3 people.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, and thought raising was best to charge BB while he is drawing to his AQ/AK. He's probably check/folding the turn UI. Raising makes the hand so much easier to play, too.

[Chris Dow]

I've been most adamant about the flop raise looking good (i.e. a reasonable way to play this hand, folding is the other reasonable play) here and I would only back that up with the fact that I did think jason should bet the river here chief. (Post #2)

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

Hard to do when we have no reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh. Knowing the players certainly helps, but it's possible just less accurate without such knowledge. There is no harm in assuming typical Party players.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

I think when it comes back to you you'll probably have the odds to catch a 7.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I just miscalculated when I replied to QTip's post.

[afk]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree, and thought raising was best to charge BB while he is drawing to his AQ/AK. He's probably check/folding the turn UI. Raising makes the hand so much easier to play, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about all the other hands he could raise before the flop and bet the flop with that you aren't ahead of? AK and AQ (maaaybe KQs depending on how he plays, but we don't know enough) are some of the only hands you want BB to have. What hands do you put the two guys in the middle on?

[Chris Dow]

If neither of the UTGs come along you really don't need to go for the turn here. If either one or both does then you should.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


That's not good Jason...

8.50 sb on flop.

If you raised and BB 3 bet and both UTGs came along, the odds are laying 20.5/1 for your call...you're sucked in.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



You're right. I obviously didn't do the math correctly. In this case, I would definitely call but fold the turn UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is one of the main reasons I didn't like the raise to begin with...if he 3 bets (and betting into a large field, I think the chances are good enough), we're in for 3 sb. If I were going to play this hand, I would just call, and I don't like calling because I don't think we're going to make up the difference before this hand is over.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is we may be best right now. So if we are going to stay in (which I think is debateable, I favor folding at this point), it is because our hand has showdown value. I think a flop raise gives us the best oppurtunity to see the river or get out of the hand cheaply.


[/ QUOTE ]
A reasonable argument but my counter to that is I feel we can get out of the hand even cheaper the times we are behind with a flop call. There are a lot of scenarios where I would fold the turn unimproved whether I raise or call the flop.

[afk]

Hey folks, I'm copying and pasting a post I made on the first page of the thread. I don't think anyone really responded to it, but I'd like opinions. I just lumped together a list of hands you might be against that you beat and that beat you.

"BB bet into 3 players and gets two callers. Assuming these guys are typical unknowns at 2/4 (loose-ish and passive) I don't think you're ahead of most of the hands that would be bet or called in two places. What hands do you put the bettor and two callers on to make you think you're ahead most of the time? I didn't bother to divide it up by who might have what.

You're behind AA-88,AJ,KJ,QJ,JT,J9s, You're ahead of overcards, AKs/o, AQs/o, maaaybe KQs/o depending on raising standards. You're also ahead of T9, and flush draws(unless they've paired a jack).

What other hands do you think you'll see here? I'm just having a hard time putting opponents on hands you are ahead of."

Again, comment, critique, whatever.

edited for spelling

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The problem is we may be best right now. So if we are going to stay in (which I think is debateable, I favor folding at this point), it is because our hand has showdown value. I think a flop raise gives us the best oppurtunity to see the river or get out of the hand cheaply.


[/ QUOTE ]
A reasonable argument but my counter to that is I feel we can get out of the hand even cheaper the times we are behind with a flop call. There are a lot of scenarios where I would fold the turn unimproved whether I raise or call the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

But as was said earlier almost any card that comes is going to be a scare card.

Let's be results oriented for a minute. If he had not raised and that club had fallen and the BB bet and got called by the UTGs... how comfortable would you have been calling another bet?

Do you feel good about looking for another club on the river?

That is why I feel this hand is so borderline, because barring hitting your 7 it is going to be very hard to make much money with it. I would fold the flop. But if I was going to continue Raising would be how I would go.

Calling the flop, there would be very few cards that I would be comfortable enough with to raise the turn, if I was facing another bet.

Again I would bet this river.

[QTip]

I liked the post.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey folks, I'm copying and pasting a post I made on the first page of the thread. I don't think anyone really responded to it, but I'd like opinions. I just lumped together a list of hands you might be against that you beat and that beat you.

"BB bet into 3 players and gets two callers. Assuming these guys are typical unknowns at 2/4 (loose-ish and passive) I don't think you're ahead of most of the hands that would be bet or called in two places. What hands do you put the bettor and two callers on to make you think you're ahead most of the time? I didn't bother to divide it up by who might have what.

You're behind AA-88,AJ,KJ,QJ,JT,J9s, You're ahead of overcards, AKs/o, AQs/o, maaaybe KQs/o depending on raising standards. You're also ahead of T9, and flush draws(unless they've paired a jack).

What other hands do you think you'll see here? I'm just having a hard time putting opponents on hands you are ahead of."

Again, comment, critique, whatever.

edited for spelling

[/ QUOTE ]

With no reads I could see them staying in with any Ace or any club ten or better. Reads would probably make this hand simple one way or the other.

[Jellyroll]

Call me weak-tight, but I'd fold this on the flop.

I think it is possible that you may have the best hand here. Although, even if you do have the best hand, nearly any turn card is a scare-card for you. You have 3 players that are drawing out on you if you are ahead. With so many players drawing out on you, I don't see 77 holding up more than it's share to give you a great pot equity, even though you'd probably have it. A smaller point, but even if you are ahead, you probably won't get paid off. At best you might win what's currently in the pot, but not much more.

I can see the argument for continuing here if you could be positive that all three players do not already have you beat and have weak draws. Although, I think the possibility that any of the 3 players may already have a higher pair, or have a strong draw (the flush most likely), is great enough to make continuing with this hand -EV.

I'd probably be more inclined to continue with this hand if I could get BB heads up, but I think the two callers ahead of you are bad news.

[chief444]

Yeah, I did notice that after posting Chris. I guess I should have said lack of river discussion. I think the river is just as interesting as the flop here. I would bet the river if I had 99 or TT. As it is now that I think about it I may bet anyway but it's close. Having no reads doesn't help.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
What about all the other hands he could raise before the flop and bet the flop with that you aren't ahead of?

[/ QUOTE ]

I raised to ask him what he had. /images/graemlins/smile.gif


[ QUOTE ]
AK and AQ (maaaybe KQs depending on how he plays, but we don't know enough) are some of the only hands you want BB to have. What hands do you put the two guys in the middle on?

[/ QUOTE ]

One of them might have a J. (It'd be nice if they raised the flop.) T or higher /images/graemlins/club.gifx. Ax. KQ, KT, K9. QT, Q9. T9. 89. 6--3x. 99, 88, 66 and 22 are possible.

[chief444]

My thought is if BB bets again on the turn into 3 opponents after being called on the flop I don't feel very good about anything. If BB checks (which he would likely do with overcards) I feel much better and there are a lot of cards I would bet or raise.

[Chris Dow]

I agree that it looks like BB is going to check this turn if you close the action with a call. Nevertheless when I think about the cards that can come off and then the fact that both UTG players have to decide to check on this card rather than randomly bet whatever they might have I get a little dizzy. I don't want to leave it up to random bad UTG players who I think are going to decide on a whim whether to bet or not after BB checks on the turn. The raise by hero prevents the UTG players from say, semi-bluffing the clubs or wheel draw which they picked up. I think we can all see how devastating those semi-bluffs are to us with our pair of 7s. (Chief you said there are some turns you would bet or consider raising. Is the 3c one of them? I can certainly imagine that in this hand if Hero just calls then on the turn the action goes BB check, one of the UTG bets. I think it is impossible for us to continue on from this particular turn if that happens but as we can see in the actual hand itself the 3c is clearly a good card for us)

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
My thought is if BB bets again on the turn into 3 opponents after being called on the flop I don't feel very good about anything. If BB checks (which he would likely do with overcards) I feel much better and there are a lot of cards I would bet or raise.

[/ QUOTE ]


I can see where you are coming from, I just don't think this is enough of a hand to be worth it (raising on the turn). I can see betting if checked too, but if BB checked and one of the UTGs woke up... would that make you feel any better about your hand. I know I am being repetitive, but my first choice for this hand is folding the flop, my second choice is raising the flop for the reasons I stated earlier. That said I understand where you are coming from, and am not saying you are off base. I just think raising the flop makes the hand easier to play and keeps you out of making an even more marginal decision on the turn.

Also I think raising on the flop makes it easier to play, because I think we can comfortably lay down the turn to a bet.

[mr pink]

the discussion in this thread would be a lot better if you would listen to some of the advice and offer rebuttal instead of blatantly accusing other of being wrong while arrogantly affirming that you are right and everyone else is wrong.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's impossible to estimate how often u are behind/ ahead here, especially without reads. I do think that u will have a better idea on the turn and the chance that u are ahead on the flop, along with the size of the pot, warrants a call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, estimating how often you are ahead or behind here (or at least coming up with a range of hands you may be up against) is one of the most fundamental parts of poker. I think saying that it's impossible to get a handle on where you're at in the hand is pretty bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Estimating equity in these type of situations is a very important part of poker.

[Chris Dow]

Should have read a bit further, this post probably is a response to me being so insistent that call is wrong. It seems to me as if upon reaching the bottom of this debate call has been confirmed to be the worst option by quite a bit.

[mr pink]

i read the whole thread. i'm not saying i agree with either line. while calling probably is your worst option here (yeah i'm agreeing with you), i'm pointing out that you are being arrogant in your opinions - not just in this thread but in almost all others. you seem only to want to give advice and not listen to anything anyone else has to say... this is discussion, it's give an take. if someone disagrees with you, ask them to elaborate, discuss your view and then ask them about their's. it's hard to listen to someone who is just telling you are wrong without convincing you otherwise. hence all the bitching that was going on in this thread.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's be results oriented for a minute. If he had not raised and that club had fallen and the BB bet and got called by the UTGs... how comfortable would you have been calling another bet?


[/ QUOTE ]

Terribly uncomfortable. If BB checks and one of the limpers bets their 5 or their /images/graemlins/club.gif or their 66 or whatever my stomach would turn. Raising the flop helped me avoid this decision.

[chief444]

Yes, I would raise the turn with the 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif if BB checked and the bet came from in between but I would fold to a 3-bet.

[QTip]

I KNEW it...you medium pp LAG

/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[QTip]

Well said Mr Pink

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

i read the whole thread. i'm not saying i agree with either line. while calling probably is your worst option here (yeah i'm agreeing with you), i'm pointing out that you are being arrogant in your opinions - not just in this thread but in almost all others. you seem only to want to give advice and not listen to anything anyone else has to say... this is discussion, it's give an take. if someone disagrees with you, ask them to elaborate, discuss your view and then ask them about their's. it's hard to listen to someone who is just telling you are wrong without convincing you otherwise. hence all the bitching that was going on in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been most adamant about the flop raise looking good (i.e. a reasonable way to play this hand, folding is the other reasonable play) here and I would only back that up with the fact that I did think jason should bet the river here chief. (Post #2)

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got to stop it with this raise or fold stuff. I agree that raising is better than calling, but calling is also better than folding in this case. There's no problem calling and reevaluating on the turn. You've arrived at the right conclusion IMO, but the way you're thinking about the hand is off. We know that your flop raise is not going to get anyone to fold, so raising helps you because you're getting more money in the pot with a likely equity edge and most likely gaining more information about the preflop raiser's hand. Also, raising is big because it made the BB make a likely incorrect fold with two overcards on the turn.

[Chris Dow]

Yeah, if you can raise the 3c then you can play this as a call chief. I don't feel like I can so if I call and that card comes off and someone bets into me I'd just fold which is a total waste of the flop call. I feel like many of the people advocating call here are not even considering raising the turn if the 3c comes off, they are just going to fold happy they lost so little to that guy who was going to turn his flush anyway.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
i read the whole thread. i'm not saying i agree with either line. while calling probably is your worst option here (yeah i'm agreeing with you), i'm pointing out that you are being arrogant in your opinions - not just in this thread but in almost all others. you seem only to want to give advice and not listen to anything anyone else has to say... this is discussion, it's give an take. if someone disagrees with you, ask them to elaborate, discuss your view and then ask them about their's. it's hard to listen to someone who is just telling you are wrong without convincing you otherwise. hence all the bitching that was going on in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

The last few replies have been civil. I don't think he was being arrogant, just being vigorous and passionate. I have seen more experienced posters be more offensive.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no problem calling and reevaluating on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you.

I think you should raise the flop if you're unwilling to raise a wide range of turn cards, but calling the flop and looking at the turn/turn action is ok.

Rob

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
the discussion in this thread would be a lot better if you would listen to some of the advice and offer rebuttal instead of blatantly accusing other of being wrong while arrogantly affirming that you are right and everyone else is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pink = Da Man.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I would raise the turn with the 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif if BB checked and the bet came from in between but I would fold to a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

See this is the situation that I am trying to avoid. Because you are not going to get paid off.

If the club falls and BB checks, then UTGx bets, you are probably going to win the pot right there or get three bet. Even if they just call your raise if these are indeed calling stations (which it looks like based upon the HH; IMO whatever they have they have misplayed it. (I know we don't know this at the time of the hand)), they probably still have a OK redraw against you.

Once again, the raise on the flop makes it easier to play, and helps to make it less likely that your turn decision will be a difficult one.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel like many of the people advocating call here are not even considering raising the turn if the 3c comes off, they are just going to fold happy they lost so little to that guy who was going to turn his flush anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you didn't base your replies on this assumption then you wouldn't come off so badly. What did you think people who said call the flop were thinking? This is rhetorical, but please, when someone says call the flop and you say its awful, ask them their plan for the rest of the hand first then decide whether or not its awful. I might be laggy but I'm raising more than just the 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif, should it pop off on thr turn. Any card not an ace or a king and I'm feeling much better about my holding here. Note, I'm not saying Im raising all cards not an ace or a king but that I"m feeling better.

Anyhoo, I must say I also disagree with you when you say calling the the worst of the 3 options. I think folding is.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel like many of the people advocating call here are not even considering raising the turn if the 3c comes off, they are just going to fold happy they lost so little to that guy who was going to turn his flush anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't make generalizations about people u don't know. If u want to agree with the chief because he's "THE chief" and I'm not, fine. But I have a feeling he and I would have played the hand the same way.

FWIW, as I said in around post #5 on this long-ass thread, raising makes the hand easier to play and for that reason, if you're (directed toward all the people that said raise, not just Chris) more comfortable raising, then it might be best for you. It's always easier to play hands as the aggressor and without reads, I give this point a lot of validity.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, if you can raise the 3c then you can play this as a call chief. I don't feel like I can so if I call and that card comes off and someone bets into me I'd just fold which is a total waste of the flop call. I feel like many of the people advocating call here are not even considering raising the turn if the 3c comes off, they are just going to fold happy they lost so little to that guy who was going to turn his flush anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there any play on any street that you DON'T advocate at some point in this hand? Not that with different reads and with different lines similarly positive results can't occur... but for god sakes, be willing to take a position, and be willing to be wrong. elsewhere you say unequivocally that calling is the worst possible option on this flop, and that you shouldn't do it. you place yourself "firmly" in the raise or fold camp.

anyone who is advocating calling the flop isn't planning on folding any turn. anyone advocating calling the flop is planning on re-evaluating on the turn given the card and the action. plus gaining a lil suckout equity for the few times you spike a 7.

raising is pretty clearly the worst option here, because you're not committed to a showdown, you shouldn't be making this raise for a free card, and you're probably not ahead. i'm all for playing middle pairs strongly on boards like this, but given the action, folding would be fine. calling is pretty clearly best if your going to continue.

[CallMeIshmael]

This will be my first (and only) poker related comment in this thread... Its getting way too bitchy in here.

Even if you KNEW you had the best hand, raising the flop may still be wrong. Conditions set forth by Big Ed himself, for waiting for the turn (pg 189)

1. Raising now has little chance to induce opponents to fold

2. Your hand is vulnerable, many cards could beat you, and thus your edge is small

3. If a favourable card comes, your edge will be much bigger on the turn.

IF 77 is the best hand here, all three conditions are met.

Don't bother telling me how fundamentally wrong I am. Your wasting your virtual breath.

(another advantage, IMO, is that when it goes bet, call, call on the turn, its an easy muck)

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
I might be laggy but I'm raising more than just the 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif, should it pop off on thr turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
3. If a favourable card comes, your edge will be much bigger on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is your range of favorable cards? I consider 3/images/graemlins/club.gif safe. Do you?

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should raise the flop if you're unwilling to raise a wide range of turn cards, but calling the flop and looking at the turn/turn action is ok.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perfect. This should end the discussion.

[QTip]

FWIW (a few of scenarios)random hands, a jack and 1 flush draw:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

88,746,140 games 29.363 secs 3,022,379 games/sec

Board: 2c 5c Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 24.5525 % [ 00.25 00.00 ] { 7d7c }
Hand 2: 43.1863 % [ 00.43 00.00 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-ATs, AKo }
Hand 3: 16.5717 % [ 00.16 00.00 ] { random }
Hand 4: 15.6897 % [ 00.15 00.00 ] { random }

Someone had a J and crap

33,320,700 games 11.521 secs 2,892,170 games/sec

Board: 2c 5c Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 09.5477 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { 7d7c }
Hand 2: 18.8864 % [ 00.19 00.00 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-ATs, AKo }
Hand 3: 61.5104 % [ 00.61 00.00 ] { Jh2h }
Hand 4: 10.0555 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { random }

35,542,080 games 12.397 secs 2,866,990 games/sec

Board: 2c 5c Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 17.8239 % [ 00.18 00.00 ] { 7d7c }
Hand 2: 36.1279 % [ 00.36 00.00 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-ATs, AKo }
Hand 3: 32.0583 % [ 00.32 00.00 ] { 8c3c }
Hand 4: 13.9899 % [ 00.14 00.00 ] { random }

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW (a few of scenarios)random hands, a jack and 1 flush draw:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

88,746,140 games 29.363 secs 3,022,379 games/sec

Board: 2c 5c Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 24.5525 % [ 00.25 00.00 ] { 7d7c }
Hand 2: 43.1863 % [ 00.43 00.00 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-ATs, AKo }
Hand 3: 16.5717 % [ 00.16 00.00 ] { random }
Hand 4: 15.6897 % [ 00.15 00.00 ] { random }

Someone had a J and crap

33,320,700 games 11.521 secs 2,892,170 games/sec

Board: 2c 5c Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 09.5477 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { 7d7c }
Hand 2: 18.8864 % [ 00.19 00.00 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-ATs, AKo }
Hand 3: 61.5104 % [ 00.61 00.00 ] { Jh2h }
Hand 4: 10.0555 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { random }

35,542,080 games 12.397 secs 2,866,990 games/sec

Board: 2c 5c Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 17.8239 % [ 00.18 00.00 ] { 7d7c }
Hand 2: 36.1279 % [ 00.36 00.00 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-ATs, AKo }
Hand 3: 32.0583 % [ 00.32 00.00 ] { 8c3c }
Hand 4: 13.9899 % [ 00.14 00.00 ] { random }

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahhhhhhhhhhhh. Poker Stove. I was praying nobody would whip this out.

[cnfuzzd]

jesus,,, one hand, lots of replies.

Im willing to say that im ahead on this flop a number of time significantly high enough to not fold, especially since i would be sacrificing whatever claim i have to a 6BB pot. The primary reason for this is that these opponents are typically very loose, and love to call. With anything. Just because they are calling a flop bet is no reason to believe you are behind. Its classic SSHE that folding middle pair against a field of LP's with a pot this size is a mistake.

So, now the question comes, call or raise? The reasons for calling are obvious. You want to continue in the hand, but you know at least one person enjoys their hand enough to raise pf and bet the flop, and that its very likely that the field has lots of outs against you. However, if you have any sort of equity in this pot, i dont think calling does anything AT ALL to maximize your chances of winning, nor does it help you to play better on the expensive streets. You will likely be facing another turn bet, perchance from the pfr, and most likely you will have one, if not two, callers in between you and the pfr. Then, the pot will be even bigger, and barring the A/images/graemlins/club.gif, you still have no idea of your hands position.

I favor a raise on the flop. Not only do i think that my hand is best here, but a raise on the flop gives me three key options later in the hand. Note this is almost always my standard line in these situations.

a) A 3 bet from the pfr almost always means my hand is behind. I can safely call trying to peel a seven, and usually will fold the turn unimproved.

b) assuming no A or club falls on the turn, i can safely bet when checked to me. This allows me to add value to what i still feel is "my" pot, and protect my hand from someone still drawing to a flush or overcard. I am also making this bet on the hopes that it folds at least one person out. Assuming this happens, and a complete blank falls on the river (a card lower than my pair that doesnt complete any draws) i will usually bet into one or two opponents. Assuming one of the scare cards do fall, or if im still facing a full field, i take the free showdown i bought on the turn.

c) assuming a broadway or flush card hits the turn, and im not bet into, i will check, taking the free look at the river i earned with my flop raise. I will usually just call one bet on the river, though im not very comfortable overcalling.

Note that if im raised, i am usually gone, and if im bet into, i will fold if i feel its appropriate.

While your hand does have some equity in this pot, its not so large that you want to go crazy with putting money in the middle. Nor do you want to just mindlessly going to showdown, not using your skills to help you maximize your potential EV in these situations.

peace

john nickle

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you should raise the flop if you're unwilling to raise a wide range of turn cards, but calling the flop and looking at the turn/turn action is ok.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perfect. This should end the discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this probably get to the heart of the matter. I guess I think our range of safe turn cards is pretty narrow. Interesting discussion though.

[ErrantNight]

The fact that it's semi-coordinated and that you have the 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif makes it a not-terrible decision to raise this flop... but raising may get you 3-bet by an aggressive flush draw, a J, an overpair...

In the absence of two callers a raise is much stronger. BB is auto-betting this flop and quite likely has overcards. And given the UTG poster donk and the guy behind him, there's actually a reasonable chance you're ahead on this flop. But you can't protect your hand, and your raise makes it incredibly unlikely a turn bet will fold a hand with outs against you.

If the BB has unimproved overcards he's likely not betting the turn. Your equity will change mightily there.

A fold is probably pretty weak here for the same reasons a raise is ok. There's a good chance you're ahead. But calling seems pretty clearly best.

A 5 will call you on this river, so bet it.

[CallMeIshmael]

Yes.

Massively unfavourable (ie. Insta-Muck it): A,K, perhaps Q

Pretty unfavourable (ie. Insta-Make-a-Decision): perhaps Q, T, 9, 8

[Chris Dow]

I'm tired, another poster pointed out how when you call and raise the 3c it kills your action even when you have the balls to raise it and are right. You can all continue to flame on in this one. I still place myself firmly in the raise or fold camp, never ducked out of it. I said if Chief is willing to raise the 3c than I have to concede that he can probably play the hand with a call and not be -ev on the call. I think many people who call will not play correctly on the turn to make the flop call +ev. So, now that chief, an experienced poster who was willing to discuss call with me while making points that were not invalid (which is the opposite of what the people advocating call were doing early on in this thread), has found an acceptable (though still seemingly suboptimal vs raising the flop) line to take on the turn after calling, you should all proceed to jump on his bandwagon and say that you are all raising the 3c as well when one of the UTG's bet into you. I'll just continue to think that you're lieing to yourselves.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
jesus,,, one hand, lots of replies.

Im willing to say that im ahead on this flop a number of time significantly high enough to not fold, especially since i would be sacrificing whatever claim i have to a 6BB pot. The primary reason for this is that these opponents are typically very loose, and love to call. With anything. Just because they are calling a flop bet is no reason to believe you are behind. Its classic SSHE that folding middle pair against a field of LP's with a pot this size is a mistake.

So, now the question comes, call or raise? The reasons for calling are obvious. You want to continue in the hand, but you know at least one person enjoys their hand enough to raise pf and bet the flop, and that its very likely that the field has lots of outs against you. However, if you have any sort of equity in this pot, i dont think calling does anything AT ALL to maximize your chances of winning, nor does it help you to play better on the expensive streets. You will likely be facing another turn bet, perchance from the pfr, and most likely you will have one, if not two, callers in between you and the pfr. Then, the pot will be even bigger, and barring the A/images/graemlins/club.gif, you still have no idea of your hands position.

I favor a raise on the flop. Not only do i think that my hand is best here, but a raise on the flop gives me three key options later in the hand. Note this is almost always my standard line in these situations.

a) A 3 bet from the pfr almost always means my hand is behind. I can safely call trying to peel a seven, and usually will fold the turn unimproved.

b) assuming no A or club falls on the turn, i can safely bet when checked to me. This allows me to add value to what i still feel is "my" pot, and protect my hand from someone still drawing to a flush or overcard. I am also making this bet on the hopes that it folds at least one person out. Assuming this happens, and a complete blank falls on the river (a card lower than my pair that doesnt complete any draws) i will usually bet into one or two opponents. Assuming one of the scare cards do fall, or if im still facing a full field, i take the free showdown i bought on the turn.

c) assuming a broadway or flush card hits the turn, and im not bet into, i will check, taking the free look at the river i earned with my flop raise. I will usually just call one bet on the river, though im not very comfortable overcalling.

Note that if im raised, i am usually gone, and if im bet into, i will fold if i feel its appropriate.

While your hand does have some equity in this pot, its not so large that you want to go crazy with putting money in the middle. Nor do you want to just mindlessly going to showdown, not using your skills to help you maximize your potential EV in these situations.

peace

john nickle

[/ QUOTE ]

Kind of what I have been trying to say but a lot more articulate, and a couple things I had not thought of. Good post.

[sthief09]

raising the flop in these situations is mostly about equity. in this case, he has very little

equity is:

(chance you're ahead)*(average equity if ahead) + (chance you're behind)*(average equity if behind)

now, look at it and think about what would make your equity big. first imagine you had a club draw with no chance of having the best hand. that would be 0 + (1)(1/3) = 1/3, so your equity is 1/3. if you have JJ, then it'll be something like (1)(.9) + 0 = 90% equity. for AA, (.9)(.7) + (.1)(.2) = 65%.

now look at 77. if we estimate that the BB has AK 50% of the time, and each of the callers has a 20% chance of having a set or jack, then you're ahead .32 here (.5*.8*.8). if ahead, you're against 6 outs, 3 outs (KT or something), and the possibility of a 9 outer, which we'll call another 6 outs (possibly 2 overcards, backdoor draws, etc, makes up for the other 3 outer). so your opponents have a combined 15 outs twice against you. your equity is .46. if you're behind (which is 1-.32 = .68), you almost always have 2 outs. that's .084, which I'll round up to .09 for backdoor flush draww

so plugging into that formula we get (.32)(.46) + (.68)(.09) = 20.8%

so even though you're ahead, you're significantly behind fair share.


but watch what happens if you wait for a safe turn (not saying to raise, but it's what you'd do with QQ or AJ). instead of having 15 outs twice, they only have 15 outs once. plus, it would look like a slowplay, so opponents could potentially make some bad folds. but even if they call call anyway, your equity if ahead goes up to .67. so we'll assume you're ahead almost the amount of the time because the turn is safe, and you'll win .043 if behind.

(.31)(.67) + (.69)(.043) = 23.7%

the difference is not as pronounced as usual, because your hand is not very good. I think it's enough to peel, but if the turn goes bet, call, call, you're beat.


so what can we take from this?
1. equity has 4 factors. they all have equal weight in the equation
2. most people only consider the chance they're ahead. in reality, the chance you'll win if behind, and chance you'll lose is ahead are just as important.
3. the problem with raising a large field with an underpair is that you have so little chance to catch up if behind, and you have only a 2 out redraw (something that I forgot to factor into my calcs)

[Chris Dow]

This is an awesome post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=462860&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb =5&amp;o=) . That is all.

[cnfuzzd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There's no problem calling and reevaluating on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you.

I think you should raise the flop if you're unwilling to raise a wide range of turn cards, but calling the flop and looking at the turn/turn action is ok.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the problem with this line is that there isnt a wide range of turn cards you can raise. Worse yet, if BB is holding a legit hand, you are still going to get 3 bet those times that he has you beat, but it will now cost you 2.5BB's to fold, instead of 1. And lets say the 8d falls off, BB checks to second caller, who bets into you. Raise? Why? Or if its checked to you on the turn, you missed an opportunity to get .5BB in on the flop.

peace

john nickle

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the problem with this line is that there isnt a wide range of turn cards you can raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

There aren't?

I'd feel comfortable raising a pretty decent range of turn cards here, but like I said, if you don't feel comfortable, then I'd just raise the flop.

Rob

[ErrantNight]

A) if the pfr leads the turn you're probably behind, anyway... typically someone isn't raising unimproved overcards into a messy field against 3 opponents, at least one of which could have anything. if you think he'd lead AK you can call again, or raise a safe turn and take a free showdown (folding to a 3-bet).

B) you can safely bet the turn if it's checked to you, regardless. if you get c/r you can fold.

C) you probably want to bet a crub, as the only person who is likely to legitimately be on a flush draw is UTG+1. if you raised preflop, you're now setting up a situation where you must check behind what may be the best hand, and give everyone ELSE a free river. if you check the flop, you can bet the turn, or raise a safe card. if a crub is checked to you, i repeat, you should bet it and fold to a raise.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll just continue to think that you're lieing to yourselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which might in and of itself be lying to yourself.

Please stop being so defensive and please give other people some credit. As has been pointed out, I think you're in the raise or fold camp because of what you're willing to do on the turn. Fine. Some people are willing to invest more with this very marginal holding on a wide range of turn cards, most of which are "scary." Please understand that this informs their flop decision. They're right. You're right. Happy day.

(And FWIW, as Hero played the hand, I think I'm betting this river.)

[mr pink]

can you recalculate if for the 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif on the turn and those same hands?

[ErrantNight]

except he's wrong... raising might be marginal, but it's not clearly better...

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
c) assuming a broadway or flush card hits the turn, and im not bet into, i will check, taking the free look at the river i earned with my flop raise. I will usually just call one bet on the river, though im not very comfortable overcalling.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see no reason to not bet a flush card.

[QTip]

damn...back to that avatar again...

Anyway, I'm not saying I understand your entire post, because I don't, and I'm printing it off to anaylze it.

However:

[ QUOTE ]
the flop raise is all about equity

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see that you have any equity edege at all. Please look at the PokerStove analysis that I posted...perhaps I did something wrong, but at no point do you have more than 24% here....

[B Dids]

I hate the flop raise.

After that I hate the turn bet more.

You will be shown a weak jack from a passive 2/4 player far too often for this play to have +EV.

Either I'm dumping this on the flop, or I'm waiting till the turn to raise (and given that turn card, I'm probably dumping there).

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Could one of the three people who don't like the flop raise elaborate?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think thier fear is that 77 doesn't beat a weak TP.

What they are missing is that not only a weak TP is going to bet here, and Hero has position for the rest of the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't miss this at all. You've seen the action, so you're overestimating the times you don't get 3-bet, or don't get drawn out on and people start betting. Particularly, everyone seems to be all about raising for a free card. Why would you want a free card? You're drawing to 2 outs.

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
I see no reason to not bet a flush card.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
Board: 2c 5c Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 24.5525 % [ 00.25 00.00 ] { 7d7c }
Hand 2: 43.1863 % [ 00.43 00.00 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-ATs, AKo }
Hand 3: 16.5717 % [ 00.16 00.00 ] { random }
Hand 4: 15.6897 % [ 00.15 00.00 ] { random }

Someone had a J and crap


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a bit shocked it took this long for someone to run a simulation on the situation. For those advocating raising purely for value, this should have been done a long time ago because if value is your only reason for raising a look at heros equity edge given the opponent's range of hands is very important.

This first simulation give a great illustration as why raising for value alone is bad. This is about the best possible senario for hero and he definately has no equity edge. Considering the fact that the other two opponents hands won't be completely random (they'll be calling w/ overs, w/ small pairs, flush draws, etc) this will tend to lower Hero's equity more. When you consider the fact that typical Party players are less likely to raise the BB with many hands other than big pairs or maybe AK, this would tend to skew Hero's equity even lower. I think raising for value alone is a terrible reason for raising in this hand.

I've been back and forth on the two options. Some have made reasonable arguments for raising other than because we have some supposed edge, which I don't think we have. I personally think calling is the better way to play it. Not a lot of players are raising out of the BB and betting the flop w/ overs, we can call the flop and if BB bets again on the turn, I think its a pretty easy fold.

Otherwise, things become very dependent on what card hits the turn and what the action is. I can evaluate and play accordingly. Most importantly, if a dud hits the turn, and I was ahead, my equity increases dramatically and I can make more money by pushing that edge on the turn.

I also don't think folding the flop is the worst thing in the world. We are playing a marginal hand in a marginal situation. In order to do this in poker reads become very important. I just don't think you have enough information to make proper decisions in this hand. Is there a tight player who wouldn't call w/o a J? Is BB the type to raise tight in the blinds, would he raise loose in the blinds? Are the other players loose and passive? We know none of this and therefore it makes playing a marginal hand in this spot that much more difficult and possibly even as a losing proposition

[cnfuzzd]

[ QUOTE ]
the flop raise is all about equity.

equity is:

(chance you're ahead)*(average equity if ahead) + (chance you're behind)*(average equity if behind)

now, look at it and think about what would make your equity big. first imagine you had a club draw with no chance of having the best hand. that would be 0 + (1)(1/3) = 1/3, so your equity is 1/3. if you have JJ, then it'll be something like (1)(.9) + 0 = 90% equity. for AA, (.9)(.7) + (.1)(.2) = 65%.

now look at 77. if we estimate that the BB has AK 50% of the time, and each of the callers has a 20% chance of having a set or jack, then you're ahead .32 here (.5*.8*.8). if ahead, you're against 6 outs, 3 outs (KT or something), and the possibility of a 9 outer, which we'll call another 6 outs (possibly 2 overcards, backdoor draws, etc, makes up for the other 3 outer). so your opponents have a combined 15 outs twice against you. your equity is .46. if you're behind (which is 1-.32 = .68), you almost always have 2 outs. that's .084, which I'll round up to .09 for backdoor flush draww

so plugging into that formula we get (.32)(.46) + (.68)(.09) = 20.8%

so even though you're ahead, you're significantly behind fair share.


but watch what happens if you wait for a safe turn (not saying to raise, but it's what you'd do with QQ or AJ). instead of having 15 outs twice, they only have 15 outs once. plus, it would look like a slowplay, so opponents could potentially make some bad folds. but even if they call call anyway, your equity if ahead goes up to .67. so we'll assume you're ahead almost the amount of the time because the turn is safe, and you'll win .043 if behind.

(.31)(.67) + (.69)(.043) = 23.7%

the difference is not as pronounced as usual, because your hand is not very good. I think it's enough to peel, but if the turn goes bet, call, call, you're beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you have the time with all that,,,animated mischief going on over there?

Anyway, i think that If we are ahead, our equity is slighty higher that you are estimating it. BB could easily have AK, AQ, or KQ more than 50% of the times. More importantly, i dont think that both callers are going to have two unpaired overcard all the time. If they do, they are holding each others outs. However, i easily see someone calling with the Ac here or middle pair.

also, a flop raise doesnt have to be about equity. With the generally passive, straightforward players at 2/4, i think a flop raise can give you substantial room to manuever later in the hand that allows you to exploit whatever edge you have in a more efficient manner on the expensive streets. If the raise on the flop doesnt meet equity requirements, i think the deficit is more than made up by playing better later in the hand.

peace

john nickle

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Forget being up against top pair...whether we raise the flop or not, 3 other players are going to see a turn card, IF we are ahead on the flop, do you really think that our chances of still being ahead on the turn make a flop raise the proper play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we have the best hand here with 77, we also have an equity edge. We should push that edge while we have it.

[/ QUOTE ]

i know it's heresy around here... but ever heard about "waiting for the turn?"

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
Particularly, everyone seems to be all about raising for a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh, completely wrong.

[sthief09]

I meant that raising the flop there is all about equity, of which he has little, so it's a bad raise. that was the point of my post

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Particularly, everyone seems to be all about raising for a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh, completely wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

clearly. but how many people mention it in advocating a flop raise?

[QTip]

Had to change the club draw because I used a 3 last time, made it 8c9c...look closely at the 1st one...???

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

50,148,120 games 19.878 secs 2,522,795 games/sec

Board: 2c 5c Jd 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 00.0000 % [ 00.00 00.00 ] { 7d7c }
Hand 2: 97.8786 % [ 00.98 00.00 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AJs, AKo }
Hand 3: 01.1102 % [ 00.01 00.00 ] { random }
Hand 4: 01.0112 % [ 00.01 00.00 ] { random }

1,412,040 games 0.499 secs 2,829,739 games/sec

Board: 2c 3c 5c Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 11.1267 % [ 00.11 00.00 ] { 7d7c }
Hand 2: 24.5998 % [ 00.24 00.00 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AJs, AKo }
Hand 3: 48.6990 % [ 00.49 00.00 ] { Jh2h }
Hand 4: 15.5745 % [ 00.15 00.00 ] { random }

1,515,360 games 0.501 secs 3,024,670 games/sec

Board: 2c 5c Jd 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 00.0000 % [ 00.00 00.00 ] { 7d7c }
Hand 2: 13.4880 % [ 00.13 00.00 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AJs, AKo }
Hand 3: 81.5122 % [ 00.82 00.00 ] { 9c8c }
Hand 4: 04.9998 % [ 00.05 00.00 ] { random }

[brettbrettr]

Free showdown is fine. Free card not so much.

[ErrantNight]

If that's such an awesome post... why are you advocating folding?

I think it's been clearly shown that raising is suboptimal to calling against your opponents range of hands. and no one has made an argument involving raising that doesn't involve faulty logic.

you don't have equity. you don't want a free card on the turn. you can't fold a better hand.

it's only not terrible because there's a reasonable chance you have the best hand. you'll know much better on the turn.

[mr pink]

what's the deal with the 1st one? that can't be right.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
also, a flop raise doesnt have to be about equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he meant: there is no folding equity or protection involved in this raise.

[QTip]

oh...good...so I'm not confused...

Did you see what happened to our equity when the 3C fell in my second PokerStove post?

[QTip]

I thought so to...ran it 3 times..even closed the application and reopened it...let me check again though.

edit: same results....I took out the AK-AJs...and that put us at about 2%

[Pokey]

It's all been said already in this thread, but not by me, so I'll butt my nose where it doesn't belong. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Some random comments:

1. Even a TINY read on BB would be helpful here. Generally speaking, though, most passive Party Poker Drones (PPDs) don't raise their own blinds without a good reason. There isn't even a chance that we've got a sneaky lil' dude trying to steal a blind; he's got a field of four, including UTG, and he's raising. I'm thinking he's raising for a reason.

2. The odds of two players having pocket pairs on the same hand are astonishingly high; given the bet, I really can't put it past BB to have 88-AA given the action leading to Hero's controversial flop raise.

3. Why do people like the 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif here? Do we honestly think that a backdoor flush chance to a one-card seven-high flush adds value to our hand in a four-way shootout? I personally think the club flush possibility does this hand more harm than good.

4. UTG and UTG+1 calling the flop raise doesn't scare me much in 2/4 Party Poker; calling stations abound, and I've seen nothing in this hand to believe that's not what these guys are. Still, even calling stations can have jacks....

5. My general rule is to fold unimproved middle pair to flop bets. Heck, even the pre-flop raise makes me feel a bit nauseated. I call it, but I hate it, and I hit-or-run on the flop.

6. Why does a third card to a straight flush make me happy on the turn? Discounting the possibility of a two-flush in someone's hand (that might be waiting to check-raise me here /images/graemlins/shocked.gif ) how can I feel more happy about my hand after the turn card adds 8 clubs + 3 fours to my "poison card" pile? I have a very hard time imagining that NOBODY in this hand has an ace; we just gave those hands four brand new outs to kill us, but we still feel like betting this hand?

I typically treat my middle pair as "hit-or-run" in this kind of situation (pre-flop aggression from an unexpected direction). When I miss, and the pre-flop aggression continues, I'm folding this hand. There are just too many cards in too many people's hands for me to like what I'm seeing on the board, here. Even if we're playing typical Mickey Mouse Poker with garbage opponents, I'm unhappy on the flop, miserable on the turn, and still pessimistic on the river.

Ah, but what do I know? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ErrantNight]

read my response to your arguments re: play later in the hand.

raising so that the hand becomes "easier" to play is not a reason for raising.

it's impossible that the two callers are holding all of each others outs, and far more unlikely that they have two of each others outs then they all combined have 12-15 outs against you.

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
(not saying to raise, but it's what you'd do with QQ or AJ)

[/ QUOTE ]

now I'm all confused. if the flop were 9 high and I had TT or K9 then I could see that, but shouldnt these hands be value raising right away? sorry to sidetrack from your original post, which was good.

[ErrantNight]

i've argued this precise point. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
raising so that the hand becomes "easier" to play is not a reason for raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

Strongly disagree, particularly if you are trying to make the decision between call and raise.

[sthief09]

I don't think your typical Party 2/4 player is raising KQ, AJ, or sometimes even AQ out of the blinds. I was just trying to show how this hand really has nothing good going for it. even though it might be ahead, it'll win less than half the time if ahead, and almost never win if behind.

what a flop raise gains in wiggle room, it loses in ability to judge the turn action. if the turn goes bet-call-call again, 77 hits the muck. if it's a safe card, but goes bet-raise, again, it hits the muck

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm tired, another poster pointed out how when you call and raise the 3c it kills your action even when you have the balls to raise it and are right. You can all continue to flame on in this one. I still place myself firmly in the raise or fold camp, never ducked out of it. I said if Chief is willing to raise the 3c than I have to concede that he can probably play the hand with a call and not be -ev on the call. I think many people who call will not play correctly on the turn to make the flop call +ev. So, now that chief, an experienced poster who was willing to discuss call with me while making points that were not invalid (which is the opposite of what the people advocating call were doing early on in this thread), has found an acceptable (though still seemingly suboptimal vs raising the flop) line to take on the turn after calling, you should all proceed to jump on his bandwagon and say that you are all raising the 3c as well when one of the UTG's bet into you. I'll just continue to think that you're lieing to yourselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chief isn't the only experienced poster arguing against the flop raise and advocating a turn raise, or the only person making compelling points. If you like Chief and therefore think that no one else could have independently arrived at the correct course of action without his help... you're a waste of space on the boards because you'll never be able to hold discussions unless Chief is there, either bullying the less informed around or intentionally ignoring those who offer a counter-argument.

[brettbrettr]

Appreciate the thought you put in there...I disagree with a lot of it but that's not to say its wrong. I do think its a big weak thouugh, especially the part about folding u/i middle pair (flop texture is important) and giving the pre-flop raiser too much credit and the callers too little. I'm much more inclined to think that if you're behind, its one of the callers that has you. Yes, the BB could have a big pair. He could also have AQs, AKs, bunches of holdings. Really, look at the flop. Its just so likely that it missed the BB. The callers are what make this hand difficult.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(not saying to raise, but it's what you'd do with QQ or AJ)

[/ QUOTE ]

now I'm all confused. if the flop were 9 high and I had TT or K9 then I could see that, but shouldnt these hands be value raising right away? sorry to sidetrack from your original post, which was good.

[/ QUOTE ]

4 handed pot. QQ on a J53 two tone board. flop goes bet-call-call. 12-1 to me. I'm waiting for the turn

[QTip]

If I put 1 random, I get this:

Board: 2c 3c 5c Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 27.2651 % [ 00.27 00.00 ] { 7d7c }
Hand 2: 50.2099 % [ 00.50 00.00 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AJs, AKo }
Hand 3: 22.5250 % [ 00.22 00.00 ] { random }

2 randoms, give 77 0%....something seems amuck.

If I run it Monte Carlo...which I have no idea what that means (just throwing it out here)...here's what I get.

Board: 2c 3c 5c Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 19.0716 % [ 00.19 00.00 ] { 7d7c }
Hand 2: 42.1016 % [ 00.42 00.00 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AJs, AKo }
Hand 3: 19.4280 % [ 00.19 00.00 ] { random }
Hand 4: 19.3989 % [ 00.19 00.00 ] { random }

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
raising so that the hand becomes "easier" to play is not a reason for raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

Strongly disagree, particularly if you are trying to make the decision between call and raise.

[/ QUOTE ]


easier != more profitable

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Even a TINY read on BB would be helpful here. Generally speaking, though, most passive Party Poker Drones (PPDs) don't raise their own blinds without a good reason. There isn't even a chance that we've got a sneaky lil' dude trying to steal a blind; he's got a field of four, including UTG, and he's raising. I'm thinking he's raising for a reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, a read would help. While it's not relevant here (since we're readless), I've seen some incredible raises out of the blinds.

[ QUOTE ]
2. The odds of two players having pocket pairs on the same hand are astonishingly high; given the bet, I really can't put it past BB to have 88-AA given the action leading to Hero's controversial flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

?


[ QUOTE ]
3. Why do people like the 7/images/graemlins/club.gif here? Do we honestly think that a backdoor flush chance to a one-card seven-high flush adds value to our hand in a four-way shootout? I personally think the club flush possibility does this hand more harm than good.


[/ QUOTE ]

If I am behind, I have two clean outs.

[ QUOTE ]
4. UTG and UTG+1 calling the flop raise doesn't scare me much in 2/4 Party Poker; calling stations abound, and I've seen nothing in this hand to believe that's not what these guys are. Still, even calling stations can have jacks....

[/ QUOTE ]

Both points are correct.

[ QUOTE ]
5. My general rule is to fold unimproved middle pair to flop bets. Heck, even the pre-flop raise makes me feel a bit nauseated. I call it, but I hate it, and I hit-or-run on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're leaving money on the table.

[ QUOTE ]
6. Why does a third card to a straight flush make me happy on the turn? Discounting the possibility of a two-flush in someone's hand (that might be waiting to check-raise me here ) how can I feel more happy about my hand after the turn card adds 8 clubs + 3 fours to my "poison card" pile? I have a very hard time imagining that NOBODY in this hand has an ace; we just gave those hands four brand new outs to kill us, but we still feel like betting this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not giving anyone a free card.

[Chris Dow]

IMO, Chief was the first person to follow up the idea of calling the flop with a viable strategy for the turn that didn't hinge on sucking out to a set.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
raising so that the hand becomes "easier" to play is not a reason for raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

Strongly disagree, particularly if you are trying to make the decision between call and raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

making -ev decisions on the flop to avoid making a tougher decision later isn't good in my book. learn how to play the turn, which you've essentially said you won't/can't do.

if he cut this off at the flop and asked for his flop action, it would be a lot easier to hold the discussion about whether to call or raise and what to do in the event of particular turn cards. since his question was on the river, it's muddled up the discussion of the two previous streets.

[ErrantNight]

fwiw josh clearly hadn't read chief's post on this point before making that same argument, and i know i hadn't.

[brettbrettr]

I said to call and thought nothing about a set. I said I'd like to see the turn. Wanted to see the turn does not equal wanting to spike a set.

[Chris Dow]

Blah, now you just twisted your definition of easier. If you really think I followed that sort of messed up logic you'd realize I would just fold so that I could stop expending the effort of clicking the mouse around, that is much easier.

[sthief09]

they don't have random hands. as I've said to people before, if you're going to do a sim, at least try to make it realistic. anytime you're saying someone who has acted on two streets has a random hand, it's not realistic. a range would be more helpful

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
If I run it Monte Carlo

[/ QUOTE ]

This means random simulation. Rather than trying to compute all possible situations, it just randomly goes through them until you tell it to stop. After it has ran a few hundred thousand simulations, you have a fairly good approximation of the complete answer.

Thanks for running these.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the problem with this line is that there isnt a wide range of turn cards you can raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

There aren't?

I'd feel comfortable raising a pretty decent range of turn cards here, but like I said, if you don't feel comfortable, then I'd just raise the flop.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the issue here is that a flop call sets up a potentially tricky turn situation. and if the flop is harder to play than preflop, the turn is twice as hard again to play as the flop.

[QTip]

Why the drastic difference?

[ErrantNight]

i didn't twist anything.

here, easier = -ev.

why would i ever advocate NOT making an easy play if it's the correct one? the point is here that the conversation has devolved into two camps: call the flop and re-evaulate on the turn, OR, raise the flop if you don't feel comfortable playing the turn.

i just think people should learn how to play this turn, as opposed to avoiding it.

[QTip]

UTG was a poster, so I think that's about as random as you can hope for...

UTG+1 we have no reads...I think a range can be very large here, and probably even hurts our equity even more...

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

Why the drastic difference?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you run the Monte Carlo simulation long enough, the drastic difference will disappear.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
making -ev decisions on the flop to avoid making a tougher decision later isn't good in my book.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fantastic point.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG was a poster, so I think that's about as random as you can hope for...

UTG+1 we have no reads...I think a range can be very large here, and probably even hurts our equity even more...

[/ QUOTE ]


I didn't look at the results. if they're saying not to raise, then yeah there's no point in a range. you've already proved your point. it's a pet peave of mine, but in this case your sim works perfectly

[partygirluk]

170 replies already. Wow. Say I cant be bothered to read all of them - is this a monster post because of some flame war, or because of great poker content?

[Chris Dow]

Calling has not been proven to be higher ev than raising. A lot of problems emerge with calling that don't emerge with raising. Getting 3 bet on the turn you lose more to learn the same thing and waiting to raise the turn you are less likely to continue to be paid off are two substantial problems.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
170 replies already. Wow. Say I cant be bothered to read all of them - is this a monster post because of some flame war, or because of great poker content?

[/ QUOTE ]

In my humble opinion, there has been some fantastic poker content. There has been some minor bitchiness that I hope we're past now.

Edit: It appears were not. Sigh. There is fantastic poker content though.

[flair1239]

Maybe this shows I have a lot of learning to do, but I am not going to pretend that I consider a club a safe card. I am also not crazy about an A, K, or Q.

I do think that raising makes it easier to play and I do think that, it is a vaild reason for doing so.

As I said earlier, I don't know why anyone would feel good about a club falling on the turn and the BB checking only to have a UTG wake up. Same thing with a A, K, or Q.

I think raising on the flop gives you more options, for instance the way the hand actually went, that was great, bet fold to a check raise.

I just don't see how raising on a scarecard with this hand would be profitable. It seems to be investing 2BB on a scarecard, only to either have to fold to a three bet or have the guy just call your raise and show you a better hand on the river.

I think raising the flop gives any turn action greater signifigance, and allows you to make a better decision on the turn.

I guess what I am saying is that I don't think I could raise the turn on any club or card above a jack.

Now that I have that out, somebody please explain where I am making an error.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, Chief was the first person to follow up the idea of calling the flop with a viable strategy for the turn that didn't hinge on sucking out to a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have been adamant about calling the flop. Please show me where I said I was only calling to suck out. In fact, show me where any of the people who said, call the flop, would only continue if they caught a 7. Please stop being so ignorant.

[Chris Dow]

I'm going to echo jason and say I'm glad this post is happening, that is of course only because I'm a selfish bitch and feel like I'm expanding my poker knowledge.

[meep_42]

Great reply.

I liked this hand all the way the first time I read it. I still don't think there are any major mistakes (if any at all), including the river check-behind. (I don't think you're ahead of the field here enough to warrant a bet, but a 2BB showdown for this pot is g00t.)

I was convinced (in my own mind) that this should be a raise/fold situation, mostly because 77 is difficult to play on the turn. The discussion has turned me from that into thinking that calling is probably slightly better than raising (because of the chance you're 3-bet). All of it goes to remind me of not being afraid to make a close descision because you're going to have to play poker on later streets.

Great hand, some great replies in this thread.

-d

[ErrantNight]

mediocre poker content.

it's long because he asked a question about a river play that was predicated on iffy play on two other streets, and the conversation was swamped by a bunch of "raise the flop" people, after which a bunch of "call the flop" people responded, leading to back and forths in like, three different spaces on this thread, after which the "call the flop" people finally proved their point, but added since raising isn't terrible, it's ok to do if you don't feel comfortable playing the turn, so now the "raise the flop" people are holding on because they're unsure of what to do on the turn.

at least, that's how i understand it :-)

here's what you should get out of this post: jason shoulda called on the flop. if you don't see why... start reading /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[mr pink]

?/?

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to echo jason and say I'm glad this post is happening, that is of course only because I'm a selfish bitch and feel like I'm expanding my poker knowledge.

[/ QUOTE ]

does this mean you no longer advocate raise/fold on the flop?

or better yet... does it mean you're in the "call" camp yet, or still working your way there? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[cnfuzzd]

First entity, even though we didnt converse on it at all, and jason have convinced me i can treat a turn crub as safe. So, that changes things a little.

[ QUOTE ]

A) if the pfr leads the turn you're probably behind, anyway... typically someone isn't raising unimproved overcards into a messy field against 3 opponents, at least one of which could have anything. if you think he'd lead AK you can call again, or raise a safe turn and take a free showdown (folding to a 3-bet).

[/ QUOTE ]

1) You say unimproved overcards wouldnt lead the turn. Why? I would have no reason to assume that my AK isnt good here, and would probably bet the turn with A high and check the river. Granted, most 2/4 player arent the crazed maniac i am, but im still not willing to put him on AJ or AA-QQ just because he bets the turn. If there is a chance that im raising a safe turn card, then i think i should still raise on the flop. The chances that im behind the PFR outnumber the chances that im ahead. Thats why i need to be able to make a cheap laydown on the flop if neccesary. Thats how i extract maximum value from this hand, by losing the least when im behind, and winning the most when im ahead. I dont want to be putting two bets in on ANY single expesive street, as i think that ruins the EV of this situation, making it a fold on the flop.

Also, assume the BB checks and one of the EP callers leads. Sure this could mean a jack, or a crub draw, or a five, or that they misclicked. In a situation as marginal as this, but assuming it still has profitablilty, the turn is not the time to be putting bets in, as you will literally have no idea about the effictiveness or value of those bets. You are guessing. To beat a dead horse, if im going to guess, im doing it on the flop when its cheaper to do so and the pot is offering me better odds.



[ QUOTE ]
B) you can safely bet the turn if it's checked to you, regardless. if you get c/r you can fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true. I think the chances of this happening are somewhat slim if you just call the turn. However, with the most passive of EP players, i would say this would be best. However, if no one has a hand, you essentially missed out on 1.5 bb's you couldve gotten into the pot when you were ahead.

[ QUOTE ]
C) you probably want to bet a crub, as the only person who is likely to legitimately be on a flush draw is UTG+1. if you raised preflop, you're now setting up a situation where you must check behind what may be the best hand, and give everyone ELSE a free river. if you check the flop, you can bet the turn, or raise a safe card. if a crub is checked to you, i repeat, you should bet it and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am agreeing that betting a crub is best. I would now be betting any non-broadway turn card. This gives some merit to the argument of raising on the turn, but i dont think that play has value given that the number of times the PFR is ahead is higher than the number of times we are. See above about dead horse.

Look at it this way, and this is very simplistic. Assume that this pot ends up being 11BB. To get to a flop raise, i invest 2BB's. If i safely fold, ive only lost those two bb's, and cant To get to a turn raise, ive now invested 3.5BB's, and still may have to fold. Worse yet, raising on the flop will usually allows us to get to showdown cheaper, and i think thats what we want to do. Im not worried about protecting my hand, i just want to take it to showdown as often as possible. Raising the flop allows that to usually happen for a total cost of ~3BBs, where its usually 4.5 or 5.5 for raising the turn. Given that you are not winning this pot a higher number of times than your opponents, you want to be making correct folds cheaply, and getting to showdown as quickly as possible.

peace

john nickle

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
?/?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not done yet.

Edit: cf. adamstewart's advocation to fold.

[adamstewart]

Most of the discussion has focused on raising vs. calling the flop.

Some have mentioned folding the flop, but I think most think this is "weak."

However, I am strongly considering FOLDING THIS FLOP.

We have a *Big Blind* preflop raiser with 4 in this pot. Big Blind has lead the flop and has TWO callers already behind him. Therefore, I'm thinking Hero is behind MOST of the time - i.e. to a bigger pocket pair, or at least a paired jack (and a paired jack and/or overpair is going to see this river, no folding about it for them).

The pot is not that big, only 11.5 sb's when action comes to Hero. Therefore, he doesn't have near the odds to call his weak draw.

Further, Hero has to dodge two more cards on the turn and river, and still be the best! And this pot is multi-way, so that's going to be very, very difficult. Most of the time, Hero will end up up putting in 2 more BB's (4 sb's) to see if he's good. This is not a good situation.

I advocate folding this flop.


Discuss.


Adam

[B Dids]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG was a poster, so I think that's about as random as you can hope for...

UTG+1 we have no reads...I think a range can be very large here, and probably even hurts our equity even more...

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this is 2/4, but after a bet and two calls, I don't feel good about 77 here.

Moreover, as somebody who plays 2/4, one of those two players has a jack with a pretty good frequency. Absent a read, I'm not putting them on "random" hands and spraying chips.

[Chris Dow]

No, I won't call here if I decide to play. I'm not raising the 3c when it hits on the turn and I know if I won't do that I won't be able to call profitably from the flop. I don't wish I could call the flop to raise the 3c yet either. The possibility of raising any card on the turn and getting 3 bet makes me a bit sick, plus the fact that my turn raise represents so much more strength seems bad to me, in other words if I raise the 3c and everyone doesn't fold before the river I know I'm checking behind and losing which stinks...

[sthief09]

the flop seems like a profitable loose call. you're getting 12-1 and you have the 7c. there's a reasonable chance you have the best hand. if you do have the best hand, you're giving up a lot by folding. you'll gain some information on the turn too. if it goes bet-call-call, you're beat

[B Dids]

[ QUOTE ]
Most of the discussion has focused on raising vs. calling the flop.

Some have mentioned folding the flop, but I think most think this is "weak."

However, I am strongly considering FOLDING THIS FLOP.

We have a *Big Blind* preflop raiser with 4 in this pot. Big Blind has lead the flop and has TWO callers already behind him. Therefore, I'm thinking Hero is behind MOST of the time - i.e. to an bigger pocket pair, or at least a paired jack (and a paired jack and/or overpair is going to see this river, no folding about it for them).

The pot is not that big, only 11.5 sb's when action comes to Hero. Therefore, he doesn't have near the odds to call his weak draw.


I advocate folding this flop.


Discuss.


Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

Totally agree. If I see an unknown raise out of the BB, and then get two callers on this board, I hate 77 fold post haste.

[ErrantNight]

so what you're trying to say is... the bets increase on the turn? get outta town.

pick up your copy of SSH and check out "waiting for the turn"

your thinking has one, huge logical flaw (other then the fact that you completely misinterpret half of what people tell you, and lump their thinking together in broad points that you disagree with):

you shouldn't be playing this hand to lose less if you're up against a monster. you're not getting 3-bet on this turn by less then a monster. you're playing this hand to maximize your expectation. you don't have sufficient equity on this flop to raise, and the turn changes everything.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling has not been proven to be higher ev than raising. A lot of problems emerge with calling that don't emerge with raising. Getting 3 bet on the turn you lose more to learn the same thing and waiting to raise the turn you are less likely to continue to be paid off are two substantial problems.

[/ QUOTE ]



who says to raise the turn? raising the flop is bad. raising the turn depends on the card and action

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
No, I won't call here if I decide to play. I'm not raising the 3c when it hits on the turn and I know if I won't do that I won't be able to call profitably from the flop. I don't wish I could call the flop to raise the 3c yet either. The possibility of raising any card on the turn and getting 3 bet makes me a bit sick, plus the fact that my turn raise represents so much more strength seems bad to me, in other words if I raise the 3c and everyone doesn't fold before the river I know I'm checking behind and losing which stinks...

[/ QUOTE ]

bring a flashlight to bed. there's monsters under it.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
I advocate folding this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Folding is the worst option. I certainly think a "loose" call with what might be the best hand can be made here.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
the flop seems like a profitable loose call. you're getting 12-1 and you have the 7c. there's a reasonable chance you have the best hand. if you do have the best hand, you're giving up a lot by folding. you'll gain some information on the turn too. if it goes bet-call-call, you're beat

[/ QUOTE ]

additionally... there's a pretty significant chance you're ahead on this flop.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I advocate folding this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Folding is the worst option. I certainly think a "loose" call with what might be the best hand can be made here.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm not sure this is true.

Please give me reasons that make folding the worst option...? (let alone, *not* the *best* option).


Adam

[B Dids]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I advocate folding this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Folding is the worst option. I certainly think a "loose" call with what might be the best hand can be made here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jason,

Maybe I'm just gunshy 'cause I've been betting people's hands for them a lot at 2/4, but I feel like a lot of this posts in this thread are way overestimating how frequenty you're ahead on this flop. I think a significant % of the time you're drawing very, very thin.

[ErrantNight]

I strongly argue against this. I think people's inability to see the flop action in a vacuum because they know what falls on the turn and how the action plays out until the river has really hindered the discussion.

knowing the results will only make it worse /images/graemlins/smile.gif maybe in a couple days.

[Chris Dow]

Now you people advocating call are getting silly. I say you can't call because most of the time on the turn you can't raise and I don't think you can just play to call again on the turn either. Then when I point out problems that I see coming from raising the few cards that you can raise you all tell me you aren't going to raise the turn in the first place. I'm just gonna act like GWB and start calling you flip-floppers pretty soon...

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to echo jason and say I'm glad this post is happening, that is of course only because I'm a selfish bitch and feel like I'm expanding my poker knowledge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your stock just went up 2 points.

[cnfuzzd]

[ QUOTE ]
read my response to your arguments re: play later in the hand.

raising so that the hand becomes "easier" to play is not a reason for raising.

it's impossible that the two callers are holding all of each others outs, and far more unlikely that they have two of each others outs then they all combined have 12-15 outs against you.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, easier is perhaps the incorrect word. Cheaper would have been better. See above. My bad. Another word i think wouldve been "more +EV" /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I am honestly being somewhat swayed here. Assuming that i knew a turn bet was coming from the pfr, then of course i could call the flop and fold the turn. however, we dont know that. There may be a bet from the BB, or it may come from one of the early position callers. I think one could call the flop and then perhaps fold to a bet when aQ falls, but what if a /images/graemlins/shocked.gif of purple horseshoes falls off, and one of the EP's comes to life?. Are we still raising the turn, or are we folding? This was probably discussed somewhere, i will go look.

peace

john nickle

[ErrantNight]

i don't know where people got on the "must make a raise" bandwagon... but they're crazy.

a turn raise depends on the card and the action...

if a crub falls and it's checked to you, it's a pretty easy bet. if you're c/r, it's a pretty easy fold. you don't want to give a free card to a flush draw, and the fact that no one has bet it yet (particularly since you just called on the frop) makes it even more unlikely that it's made a hand.

[Chris Dow]

Yeah John, this is exactly the biggest problem I have with calling. I'm seeing the MP's coming to life, a raise being mandatory, but the raise sucking because the only good response is a fold, if they call you're beaten and they aren't folding, if they 3 bet you're really beaten and folding yourself.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

I strongly argue against this. I think people's inability to see the flop action in a vacuum because they know what falls on the turn and how the action plays out until the river has really hindered the discussion.

knowing the results will only make it worse /images/graemlins/smile.gif maybe in a couple days.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I really wish I had made this hand a play along. When I made the flop decision I knew it was tough. But I found the river decision tougher. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Now I realize how tough the flop decision should have been, and how easy the river decision is (given how the hand played).

[Chris Dow]

Errant, talking about the situations on the turn where you are checked to is the silliest because it is the most trivial because it is obviously the best for you. I would add that I think it is by far the least likely also.

[ErrantNight]

are you completely incapably of comprehending a line that involves paying attention to the action?

and just like I'd respond to GWB: the world isn't black and white. your decisions shouldn't be either. you try to boil every poker decision down into something simple and manageable so that you can understand it. you've got a lot to learn.

[ErrantNight]

against a preflop raiser that prolly doesn't have a J unless he has 2 of them (a very small percentage of his possible hands), a poster who literally could have any two, and some random limper?

[Chris Dow]

The action from these random 2/4 monkeys is going to be frequently misleading on the turn and cause you to make mistakes. Is that concise enough for you?

[ErrantNight]

cross post this in M/HS and fudge the limits a lil and leave it as a turn decision... i'd LOVE to hear what they think (although sometimes that forum is pretty useless)

[B Dids]

I'm giving some (potentially too much) credit for people who called the flop. Also considering that a raise out of the BB in that spot probably means more hands that have me drawing to two outs than hands that don't.

I think that knowing the turn play might be making it easier to put the BB on AK than it should be.

[QTip]

hits the muck, hits the muck, hits the muck....

that's why I've been saying fold the flop.

Would you peel one off here Josh?

[mr pink]

how will you know if one of the mps catches 2 pair on the turn?

if you just call the flop and the turn action goes:

bet, call, raise, you have an easy fold.

if you raise the flop and the turn action goes:

check, check, check, bet, call, call, check/raise, you're still in the same situation.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
The action from these random 2/4 monkeys is going to be frequently misleading on the turn and cause you to make mistakes. Is that concise enough for you?

[/ QUOTE ]

you've got us confused. you're the one who wants concise, easy to understand arguments. i'm the one advocating play that involves tough, complicated decisions.

i feel confident about my ability to play this turn. if you don't, that's FINE. this point has been made. all i'm saying is that it's BETTER to learn how to play this turn.

i'm comfortable heading into this turn against random 2/4 monkeys and able to outplay them.

[Chris Dow]

I'd say for 100% that you're not in the same situation.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
turn decision

[/ QUOTE ]

As a turn decision? Do you mean flop?

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't know where people got on the "must make a raise" bandwagon... but they're crazy.

a turn raise depends on the card and the action...

if a crub falls and it's checked to you, it's a pretty easy bet. if you're c/r, it's a pretty easy fold. you don't want to give a free card to a flush draw, and the fact that no one has bet it yet (particularly since you just called on the frop) makes it even more unlikely that it's made a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not disputing what to do if checked too. But some people have advocated raising a turn club.

I don't think this is a good idea. Somebody show me why raising a turn scare card which I will define as an A, K, Q, or club is a good idea. Somebody also said if the BB checked on a club and a UTG bet, that they would raise. Why?

A side note just to show how weak tight I am, I advocated folding early in the thread, with raising being the next best option (for reasons I have stated in a dozen posts). I think calling just leads to a complicated turn decision that can be avoided by raising the flop. As any turn action after your raise, has greater signicance.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm giving some (potentially too much) credit for people who called the flop. Also considering that a raise out of the BB in that spot probably means more hands that have me drawing to two outs than hands that don't.

I think that knowing the turn play might be making it easier to put the BB on AK than it should be.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a 5 calls the flop, I think runner runners call this, I think reasonable overcards call this...

And I agree (and have made the point) that knowing the turn action confuses things for the purpose of this discussion.

[ErrantNight]

sorry, flop decision

[27offsooot]

"Assuming that i knew a turn bet was coming from the pfr, then of course i could call the flop and fold the turn. however, we dont know that. There may be a bet from the BB, or it may come from one of the early position callers. I think one could call the flop and then perhaps fold to a bet when aQ falls, but what if a /images/graemlins/shocked.gif of purple horseshoes falls off, and one of the EP's comes to life?. "

This is entirely dependent upon the turn card, but with the 3 of crubs, I'll give u my action plan. If BB bets, and there is at least one caller, I'm folding. If UTG bets and there is a caller, I'm folding. If UTG (without a caller) or UTG+1 bets, I'm raising and folding to a 3-bet. If it's checked to me, I'm betting. The same could be said for a blank. The general idea is that if there are calls on the turn, I'm more likely to fold the turn. If one of the limpers bets, I'm most likely raising if there aren't any other calls. Reads could really help define ranges of hands here, but absent these, this is what i would do.

[Chris Dow]

Well since you have it all figured out I really would like to hear your answer to this question because you haven't said it yet. I am certain there is a range of cards that if they fall and everyone checks to you on the turn you would bet them. Pretend one of these cards fell on the turn. The BB checks, UTG checks, UTG +1 bets, you do what?

[mr pink]

i refer you here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2030386&amp;page=0&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;vc=1)

[jason_t]

I'll do it.

[QTip]

Finally...I'm not alone in folding this on the flop...

[mr pink]

whatever man, just keep telling yourself that you are right and everyone else here is wrong just because we don't agree with you.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
they don't have random hands. as I've said to people before, if you're going to do a sim, at least try to make it realistic. anytime you're saying someone who has acted on two streets has a random hand, it's not realistic. a range would be more helpful

[/ QUOTE ]

Random hands are useful here for the other two players as an overestimate of hero's equity. Once they start making decisions depending on the flop cards (no matter how weak the draw), hero's equity can only decrease. So his first sim of BB's range of hands with two randoms showing that hero's equity was less than 25% is enough (IMO) to prove that he doesn't have fair share, as you have already said. I'm just trying to argue that his sim isn't worthless here.

[ErrantNight]

what card?

i'll say, for arguments sake, that it's the 3 of crubs.

i'm raising the UTG+1 with the intention of taking a free showdown unless i spike a 7 and folding to a 3-bet

[B Dids]

Sure, but just looking at what people are likely to hold, I think hands that beat you are more likely holdings on the part of UTG+1 and the BB than hands that don't. If I'd been playing at the table long enough to form more solid reads, then I play the hand differently- given unknowns, I think there's a better time to press thin potential edges in situation where I may be drawing thin.

[cnfuzzd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
raising so that the hand becomes "easier" to play is not a reason for raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

Strongly disagree, particularly if you are trying to make the decision between call and raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

making -ev decisions on the flop to avoid making a tougher decision later isn't good in my book. learn how to play the turn, which you've essentially said you won't/can't do.

if he cut this off at the flop and asked for his flop action, it would be a lot easier to hold the discussion about whether to call or raise and what to do in the event of particular turn cards. since his question was on the river, it's muddled up the discussion of the two previous streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, remember im not that other guy, and i dont avoid difficult situations. I play good poker, and im funny too, so dont throw me in his crowd /images/graemlins/cool.gif


And i am honestly being swayed. Im doing some more math, and i threw my calculator against the wall last night, so its taking a while. Also, i am reviewing all the pro-call responses.

Errant, i do have to say that no matter what you do on this turn, the idea that you will have any clue about wether or not it is the correct action is going to be false more than 75% of the time. AK will bet into you. A crub draw will be when they are checked to. The poster will try to steal. You are not championing the "i make tough plays" crowd, you are championing the "I want to make a decision on the turn" crowd. Sillypants.

peace

john nickle

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say for 100% that you're not in the same situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree a check raise on the turn after my flop raise would be a fold for me. I really think it would be stretching it too call any turn check-raise.

[Chris Dow]

And I'm telling ya I see this as problematic because when you raise the turn after the turn is that card there are the following problems. The 3 bet causes your plan of action to have lost 2.5 bbs. Any call, from either UTG+1 or a cold call from either of the other 2, means that you are down to two outs and are going to lose 2.5 bbs on the hand again baring spiking a 7 (if that is even going to be enough). Only upside seems to be that this is your only reasonable chance of getting people to fold on the turn? Not sure the 2 BBs invested balance out very well here.

Edit: John Nickle mentioned the same above with his 75% figure. I am seeing the exact same problem and it looks big. Then you guys are telling me that it isn't higher +ev to avoid this problem and it isn't adding up.

[ErrantNight]

talking about situations where you raise the flop because you're ahead and no one improves by the river is kinda silly then, too.

and if you think you're getting sucked out on, why are you raising?

are you just raising so you can fold EASIER on the turn if a bet comes?

[mr pink]

yeah it's an easy fold in that situation, but you put yourself into it by raising the flop where it isn't warranted. you cost yourself an extra 1.5bbs in order to find a fold. where if you just call the flop, you'll be able to make the same fold at .5bbs and feel just as good about it.

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
and if you think you're getting sucked out on, why are you raising?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno what this means. I never get premonitions on the flop about whether or not I feel like I'm going to get sucked out on.

[ QUOTE ]
are you just raising so you can fold EASIER on the turn if a bet comes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not just, but I certainly can't see how it would be anything but stupid to call a bet on the turn if someone did bet into me.

[ErrantNight]

if you fold hands with outs against you on the turn that's a coup.

what do you do if you raise the flop and it gets called and UTG+1 bets into you on the turn?

you keep looking at the scenario that you don't like in absolutely the most negative light... your perspective is skewed.

this is a big pot. i'd like to win it. if the 3 of crubs comes on the turn, and it's checked to UTG+1, the range of hands he could be betting with here includes draws that i beat, or random/bad two-pairs that i have outs against, or a pair and a gutshot, etc. etc. i'm raising because there's a chance i'm still ahead and i can now fold hands with outs against me.

the way you play it, raising the flop, the only thing that becomes easy to do is fold the turn, which i'm doing anyway if the flop comes bet/check/check, only i saved you a small bet. if it gets 3-bet when you raise on the flop, you're calling, and losing a full bet when you don't improve.

i'm only investing more than 1 small bet when it looks like i have a chance to win the pot and my hand might still be good.

to compare my investment of up to two additional big bets in such a manner to a flop raise is simply wrong.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
hits the muck, hits the muck, hits the muck....

that's why I've been saying fold the flop.

Would you peel one off here Josh?

[/ QUOTE ]


hell yes

[Kaz The Original]

Ok, BB raised PF, so he didn't connect. He's either got Over Cards or Over Pair. So find out by raising the flop.

No one has said "HEY I HAVE A GOOD PAIR" by raising, so you have to assume you are ahead. Bet the damn river, and do everything else the same.

[sthief09]

just reiterating how bad I think anything other than calling the flop is...

[ErrantNight]

so you're raising so you can fold on the turn, is that your point?

[B Dids]

[ QUOTE ]


No one has said "HEY I HAVE A GOOD PAIR" by raising, so you have to assume you are ahead. Bet the damn river, and do everything else the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a fallacy at 2/4. You will see AJ and KJ (and a lot of worse J hands) play this passive with great frequency. I hate to make some appeal to small stakes authority, but I'm going to keep hammering away and saying that you're behind in this spot far more often than you're ahead.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
just reiterating how bad I think anything other than calling the flop is...

[/ QUOTE ]

really. i know you'd argue that the sun revolves around the earth just to disagree with me... fine...

but listen to some other people who know more than you when they spout reason. and there are a bunch of people here who clearly know more than you. and that's not meant as a put down, there's a bunch of people here who clearly know more than me, too. i just happen to be right on this one.

[Chris Dow]

I think you're more than a bit off here. What I am saying is that calling the flop and then folding the turn is standard I understand when to do that. So I am analyzing situations on the turn when I would decide to play on and it looks like my investment gets really heavy (2 BBs) and I can't ever know with any reasonable degree of certainty whether I am ahead or behind while doing it. So yeah, I don't like that and I haven't seen the math laid out in such a way that it looks good.

I can instantly tell you that raise the flop and get to showdown for a total of 2 BBs total from the flop is pretty good. Having to fold/losing in the showdown after investing 2.5 BBs looks pretty bad.

[CallMeIshmael]

Jason,

Was the tittle of this thread intended to be a play on words of the Ghostbuster's slogan "Who you gonna call?"


(FWIW, I think there are at least 20 other posts in this thread less productive than this one)

[QTip]

It just doesn't seem like we even have implied odds to peel one off.

I mean...I do like the fact that I have the 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif and that I'm closing the action...I guess the call's not that bad, but I don't think I'll get enough action to make up for my bad odds right now even when I do hit trips.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
(FWIW, I think there are at least 20 other posts in this thread less productive than this one)

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL...I can't even keep up with the responses....

[flair1239]

Ok I am going to sum up here. But I would like some of you guys to refute me point by point. If you want to PM me that is fine.

1. I think folding this flop is best. The pot is biggish. But if behind you are drawing to (2) realistic outs. I don't think you can get 3.5 outs if behind. If you are ahead and are against calling stations, there are a whole crapload of cards that can run you down. With reads or a bigger pot I would rethink this.

2. If you decide to stay in, I think raising is better than calling for the following reasons. (in no particular order)

- There are very few cards where I would be comfortable calling another bet on the turn unimproved. So having the turn checked to me is favorable.

-If after raising somebody bets into me on the turn (and I am unimproved), that is fairly convincing evidence that I am beat (depending on the action).

-Raising the flop, betting the turn and folding to a check raise, is cheaper than raising a bet on the turn and folding to a three bet, or having the the raise called and being bet into on the river and possibly mnaking a crying call.

- Raising the flop and betting the turn if check to, may win the pot on the turn.

- Raising to me is worth it, if it makes the turn easier to play. I see no reason to invite a marginal situation; if it is not necessary.


3. I want someone to tell me what benefit there would be to raising a club or an overcard to the board. If a scare card falls and there is a bet and a call, how can raising be EV. Even if there is only one the bettor left by the time the action gets to you?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
It just doesn't seem like we even have implied odds to peel one off.

I mean...I do like the fact that I have the 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif and that I'm closing the action...I guess the call's not that bad, but I don't think I'll get enough action to make up for my bad odds right now even when I do hit trips.

[/ QUOTE ]


I estimate you're ahead 1/3 of the time and you'll stay ahead 1/2 of the time that you're ahead. folding that getting 12-1 is no good

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
Jason,

Was the tittle of this thread intended to be a play on words of the Ghostbuster's slogan "Who you gonna call?"

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes because I saw it as a river decision. I now realize that the flop decision is infinitely more interesting.

[ QUOTE ]
(FWIW, I think there are at least 20 other posts in this thread less productive than this one)

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I wish Chris Dow would calm down and open his mind a little. He's capable of thinking and articulating, this is clear, but he's being too bull-headed.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a fallacy at 2/4. You will see AJ and KJ (and a lot of worse J hands) play this passive with great frequency. I hate to make some appeal to small stakes authority, but I'm going to keep hammering away and saying that you're behind in this spot far more often than you're ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

no question...many, many 2/4 players would be pissing their pants with KJ here.

[Chris Dow]

I wish this forum would focus on more than bashing me. Anyway, I'm really trying to understand call but no one can settle the problem of having to invest 2 bets on the turn a lot of the time with very low certainty on what I'm doing. Honestly I feel like I'm exactly on par with John Nickle here except that you guys bash me and not him because I'm the new guy. If someone would go back and read the posts John has made and then argue against that and answer John's concerns about calling it would answer the exact same questions and arguments I have.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're more than a bit off here. What I am saying is that calling the flop and then folding the turn is standard I understand when to do that. So I am analyzing situations on the turn when I would decide to play on and it looks like my investment gets really heavy (2 BBs) and I can't ever know with any reasonable degree of certainty whether I am ahead or behind while doing it. So yeah, I don't like that and I haven't seen the math laid out in such a way that it looks good.

I can instantly tell you that raise the flop and get to showdown for a total of 2 BBs total from the flop is pretty good. Having to fold/losing in the showdown after investing 2.5 BBs looks pretty bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

these two things are not comparable. do you see why?

i'll let others elaborate.







alright, who am i kidding, i'll explain it for you.

first, what on earth makes you think that your flop raise gets you to showdown for 2bbs? it's ludicrous to make this assumption. you're saying this because it happened. it COULD get you to showdown for 2bb, but it's not likely to.

second, why are you winning when you let 3 opponents get to showdown, but losing when you've limited the field and ONLY invested more money when you can tell more accurately where you stand in relation to your opponents?

third, when you raise the turn you're increasing your chances to win this pot. why do you think it's no small thing to fold opponents seeing the river?

fourth, when the turn doesn't come 3 crubs, check, check, bet... you have MUCH greater flexibility on the turn. you can fold precisely as you would have when you raised if the betting comes the same, you'll have saved yourself an entire bb if you get 3-bet on the flop (because you have to call it).

your absolutely locked into losing this hand if you wait for the turn to re-evaluate, and i don't see why. the only thing that raising the flop for you has done is build the pot, since you seem to intuitively realize no one is folding to a single turn bet. basically you're hoping to put a little money in when you might be ahead. you're trying to save, by your own estimation, a single small bet, just so that you can show this hand down against three opponents after they draw twice on roughly 15 outs combined (assuming you're ahead).

does this really sound like such a great plan?