Pair Of King with an Ace on the Flop

[Leo317]

Had this problem a couple of time. I raise with pocket Kings preflop. The flop comes something like A95 rainbow. I bet and I get raised. Can I safely fold here?

[GrunchCan]

Maybe.

[zuluking]

It depends.

[jaxUp]

yes...or no.

[bookie socks]

Yes you can but maybe you shouldn't.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Had this problem a couple of time. I raise with pocket Kings preflop. The flop comes something like A95 rainbow. I bet and I get raised. Can I safely fold here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Reads?

Try searching the archives (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1996817&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1#Post1997318)

[@bsolute_luck]

i actually had the same thing happen last night. if you don't mind, i'd like to just add on to this thread and see what others think.

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero folds, MP3 calls, SB folds, BB folds.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

reads: MP1 just sat down 1 orbit ago.

SB usually slow plays everything, especially if he thinks someone will do the betting for him.

BB is LP and plays anything.




i think i should have raised the flop to try and get it heads up. also if that happens, i can check the turn UI? fold either to a reraise?

my read on SB is why i folded the river. i think i should have played different earlier, so i could know whether to fold earlier.

[Fishlips_Jones]

I think raising the flop would be the correct play. There is only about a 44% chance that one of the other four players has an ace here. MP1 could be betting second pair and a BD flush draw, hoping you raise to thin the field?



Fishlips

[tiltaholic]

raise that flop.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
raise that flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aside from the 44% thing mentioned above, if MP1 had an A, woudn't he usually try to CR?

[davelin]

Honestly, I think you took the worst post-flop line here possible.

[Easystreet]

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 could be betting second pair and a BD flush draw, hoping you raise to thin the field?
Fishlips

[/ QUOTE ]

My experience of these micro limit games are that your average opponent is loose and passive. Very few are going to be thinking in the way you have suggested. I think it is far more likely that MP1 has an ace. I think I would fold or if I was going to play I would raise, but I think when someone bets into a pf raiser and 5 other opponents with an ace on the flop, most of the time he has an ace.

[Easystreet]

[ QUOTE ]
There is only about a 44% chance that one of the other four players has an ace here.
Fishlips

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain how you got this figure. I am not disagreeing with it, I do not know how to calculate something like this.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
raise that flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aside from the 44% thing mentioned above, if MP1 had an A, woudn't he usually try to CR?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I was MP1 and I had Axs, I'd bet it right in front of the pre-flop raiser.

[Bradyams]

[ QUOTE ]
i actually had the same thing happen last night. if you don't mind, i'd like to just add on to this thread and see what others think.

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero folds, MP3 calls, SB folds, BB folds.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

reads: MP1 just sat down 1 orbit ago.

SB usually slow plays everything, especially if he thinks someone will do the betting for him.

BB is LP and plays anything.




i think i should have raised the flop to try and get it heads up. also if that happens, i can check the turn UI? fold either to a reraise?

my read on SB is why i folded the river. i think i should have played different earlier, so i could know whether to fold earlier.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're going to call the flop, and the turn, why would you not call the river?

[Fishlips_Jones]

Sure,

4 opponents, therefore 8 cards. You see 5 cards (your 2 plus 3 flop), therfore 47 cards unseen, there are 3 aces unseen. The probability that someone has an ace, is equal to:
1-(probability that no one has an ace).

For 8 cards out of 47 and 3 aces remaining. Probability no one has an ace =
(44/47 x 43/46 x ... x 37/40).

This is for any two random cards.


Fishlips

[Easystreet]

[ QUOTE ]


4 opponents, therefore 8 cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the explanation, in this hand I think he has 5 opponents does that make much of a difference to the overall probability that someone has an ace.

[jaxUp]

While I acknowledge that it's more of an "add-on" I must congratulate you on an effective hijack.

[DeadRed]

Not that I am advocating this line in the current situation, but one of the things that made me feel like my game was making significant strides from "newbiedom" was when I could raise PF and fold to a flop bet. I know there are a number of factors to take into account on this hand (as with all hands), but if the only reason a player sees 1 or more flop bets is because they raised PF, then I think they are missing the bigger picture.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, I think you took the worst post-flop line here possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

see, while i agree that this hand was poorly played on my part, reading this comment is totally useless and wasted space. it doesn't help me at all...

that said, i agree that most of the players i have encountered at .25/.5 stakes will not bluff into a prf raiser without the ace. therefore, this is a fold/raise situation.

i let myself become a calling station. i had position on the raiser to reraise and face the field to cold call. reraised, i'm folding either here or on the turn.

the bettor did show A7o as well as another limper showed the A. MHING.- it's tough to let go KK. i was begging once i saw that to not see an A. oh well, next time.

[KingOtter]

One sign to know when to release a KK when there's an A on the board is a lot of overcallers.

In a 10-handed came there is a 16% chance of nobody getting an ace. So there is an 84% chance of an ace being present. And once an ace is present, there is a 75% chance of another ace being out there.

So if you've got an ace on the board and more than 2-3 overcallers, the chance are pretty good there is an ace or two out there. Also watch the players and which ones see the flop with any ace, to look out for them.

That said, watch and make sure you don't have other outs before folding.

KO

[droolie]

Against an unknown I think you can fold. Very weak tight advice but you're very likely to be drawing to just over two outs. There aren't many draws available for someone to try to pump and when you get bet into here it just seems to scream A's (or better) to me.


You can raise the flop if you want to feel good about folding the turn UI but the chances of you being behind any random A is large enough to make this a decent laydown.

You can't draw to 2 outs like you did. If you're going that far you must complete your calldown and call the river.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
While I acknowledge that it's more of an "add-on" I must congratulate you on an effective hijack.

[/ QUOTE ]

"you underestimate the sneaky"

[Easystreet]

[ QUOTE ]


Thanks for the explanation, in this hand I think he has 5 opponents does that make much of a difference to the overall probability that someone has an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've just done the calculation with 5 opponents I think it comes out to 52% probablity somone has an ace.

[waynethetrain]

I don't think 44% is right in terms of this discussion. It might be correct for random hands, but once a hand is taken to the flop the chances it contains a A is higher than random. Also, many low limit players play A - rag which makes it even more likely.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, I think you took the worst post-flop line here possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

see, while i agree that this hand was poorly played on my part, reading this comment is totally useless and wasted space. it doesn't help me at all...

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, but I think it helps to think why this may be the case. Give a man a fish, etc, etc, teach a man to fish, etc, etc.

Here is the lines I would've taken in somewhat order -

1) Fold the flop
2) Raise the flop and re-evaluate
3) Call down the flop

Drawing to two outs with no sufficient pot odds isn't good.

[Fishlips_Jones]

5 players, 4 opponents. MP1, MP3, SB, BB.

Fishlips

[Fishlips_Jones]

Right. It's unlikely someone cold calls a PFR with 72o.


Fishlips